January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

what are the odds of two buoys failing?

 

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Do the buoys represent the weenies going down with each model run?   

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

I95 has been screwed by every 6"+ event advertised in the 3-16 day time frame since 2019.   The one solid event January last year wasn't picked up until 36hrs out.

Seems most of our storms aren’t picked up until 3/4 days out

[Terpeast]

Fun prediction: both Euro and Gfs lose the storm tomorrow.. only to bring it back somewhere along the EC at day 6-7. Forum’s servers have a meltdown meanwhile. 

[stormtracker]

We all seeing this, right?

GFS H5 is different every damn run.  135-144  interesting

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

We all seeing this, right?

Seeing what? (Of course you're ahead of us, lol)

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We all seeing this, right?

GFS H5 is different every damn run.  135-144  interesting

Yep can't decide which sw to amplify and phase plus timing vastly different every run...thus why we should be watching the threats prior to the day 9 thing before anything else. These will dictate day 9 but most folks here are already aware of this. Nina storms can jump up quickly while looking too far ahead. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

GFS has a bomb cyclone just developing near coastal SC at 150 while the CMC has a decent low in Buffalo. And ppl want to predict the February longwave pattern when the models can't agree just 6 days out.

[Albedoman]

until the LP's hit the western coast, everything  in the LR is a crap shoot in this trifecta La Nina pattern. Just keep looking at 3-5 days models out only. It will brighten your outlook. Analog year 49-50 where the temps and the precip were nearly the same as this year thus far. That was a La Nina year too.  This means snow will be hard to come by this year any way we look at it. 

 

January 1950 Allentown Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
January 1	41	27	0.00	0.0
January 2	42	34	0.00	0.0
January 3	57	37	0.09	0.0
January 4	66	51	0.00	0.0
January 5	59	45	0.03	0.0
January 6	50	40	0.19	0.0
January 7	47	28	0.19	0.0
January 8	29	14	0.00	0.0
January 9	36	13	0.00	0.0
January 10	45	34	0.89	0.0
January 11	47	24	0.00	0.0
January 12	32	21	0.03	0.0
January 13	38	29	0.05	0.0
January 14	57	36	0.02	0.0
January 15	38	24	0.00	0.0
January 16	45	30	0.00	0.0
January 17	38	25	0.00	0.0
January 18	51	28	0.13	0.3
January 19	29	19	0.00	0.0
January 20	30	14	0.00	0.0
January 21	37	23	0.00	0.0
January 22	42	31	0.01	0.0
January 23	46	34	0.00	0.0
January 24	44	38	0.11	0.0
January 25	44	40	0.00	0.0
January 26	72	41	0.05	0.0
January 27	48	22	0.08	0.0
January 28	34	18	0.10	0.0
January 29	46	33	0.19	0.0
January 30	45	31	0.05	0.0
January 31	35	27	0.45	0.5

February 1950 Allentown Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
February 1	32	27	0.13	1.8
February 2	38	30	0.51	0.4
February 3	38	24	0.00	0.0
February 4	39	22	0.00	0.0
February 5	37	21	0.00	0.0
February 6	35	24	0.15	0.3
February 7	39	20	0.00	0.0
February 8	33	7	0.00	0.0
February 9	46	27	0.67	0.2
February 10	39	29	0.13	0.2
February 11	49	29	0.00	0.0
February 12	49	25	0.00	0.0
February 13	37	30	0.85	3.3
February 14	34	31	0.57	0.2
February 15	39	34	0.16	0.0
February 16	42	30	0.00	0.0
February 17	41	30	0.00	0.0
February 18	43	30	0.00	0.0
February 19	42	23	0.01	0.1
February 20	24	6	0.00	0.0
February 21	24	3	0.00	0.0
February 22	27	20	0.21	0.1
February 23	34	23	0.18	0.2
February 24	45	21	0.00	0.0
February 25	29	18	0.00	0.0
February 26	26	11	0.00	0.0
February 27	24	8	0.00	0.0
February 28	34	10	0.01	0.0

March 1950 Allentown Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
March 1	45	25	0.00	0.0
March 2	26	11	0.00	0.0
March 3	27	8	0.00	0.0
March 4	35	7	0.00	0.0
March 5	57	15	0.00	0.0
March 6	44	23	0.00	0.0
March 7	42	15	0.00	0.0
March 8	64	32	1.01	0.0
March 9	35	20	0.00	0.0
March 10	35	20	0.00	0.0
March 11	42	20	0.14	0.3
March 12	50	32	0.01	0.0
March 13	35	30	0.31	0.0
March 14	38	23	0.00	0.0
March 15	49	24	0.00	0.0
March 16	33	22	0.00	0.0
March 17	44	25	0.00	0.0
March 18	40	22	0.02	0.0
March 19	44	17	0.00	0.0
March 20	47	19	0.01	0.0
March 21	43	33	1.06	0.0
March 22	40	34	0.44	0.0
March 23	39	34	0.68	0.0
March 24	50	34	0.00	0.0
March 25	47	30	0.04	0.0
March 26	50	31	0.58	0.0
March 27	48	35	0.01	0.0
March 28	72	48	0.18	0.0
March 29	56	30	0.09	0.0
March 30	42	27	0.00	0.0
March 31	48	22	0.00	0.0

[Ralph Wiggum]

Whoever said the GFS would show another Buffalo blizzard with the LR fantast storm takes the prize this run. Meanwhile the CMC scrapes the Gulf Coast Miller A style and tries to come up the E Coast. Buckle up, going to be an interesting ride the next week or so.

[nj2va]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS has a bomb cyclone just developing near coastal SC at 150 while the CMC has a decent low in Buffalo. And ppl want to predict the February longwave pattern when the models can't agree just 6 days out.

I heard on Twitter that March 2026 looks warm on the EuroGFSSuperX. 

[Daniel Boone]

21 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

until the LP's hit the western coast, everything  in the LR is a crap shoot in this trifecta La Nina pattern. Just keep looking at 3-5 days models out only. It will brighten your outlook. Analog year 49-50 where the temps and the precip were nearly the same as this year thus far. That was a La Nina year too.  This means snow will be hard to come by this year any way we look at it. 

 

January 1950 Allentown Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
January 1	41	27	0.00	0.0
January 2	42	34	0.00	0.0
January 3	57	37	0.09	0.0
January 4	66	51	0.00	0.0
January 5	59	45	0.03	0.0
January 6	50	40	0.19	0.0
January 7	47	28	0.19	0.0
January 8	29	14	0.00	0.0
January 9	36	13	0.00	0.0
January 10	45	34	0.89	0.0
January 11	47	24	0.00	0.0
January 12	32	21	0.03	0.0
January 13	38	29	0.05	0.0
January 14	57	36	0.02	0.0
January 15	38	24	0.00	0.0
January 16	45	30	0.00	0.0
January 17	38	25	0.00	0.0
January 18	51	28	0.13	0.3
January 19	29	19	0.00	0.0
January 20	30	14	0.00	0.0
January 21	37	23	0.00	0.0
January 22	42	31	0.01	0.0
January 23	46	34	0.00	0.0
January 24	44	38	0.11	0.0
January 25	44	40	0.00	0.0
January 26	72	41	0.05	0.0
January 27	48	22	0.08	0.0
January 28	34	18	0.10	0.0
January 29	46	33	0.19	0.0
January 30	45	31	0.05	0.0
January 31	35	27	0.45	0.5

February 1950 Allentown Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
February 1	32	27	0.13	1.8
February 2	38	30	0.51	0.4
February 3	38	24	0.00	0.0
February 4	39	22	0.00	0.0
February 5	37	21	0.00	0.0
February 6	35	24	0.15	0.3
February 7	39	20	0.00	0.0
February 8	33	7	0.00	0.0
February 9	46	27	0.67	0.2
February 10	39	29	0.13	0.2
February 11	49	29	0.00	0.0
February 12	49	25	0.00	0.0
February 13	37	30	0.85	3.3
February 14	34	31	0.57	0.2
February 15	39	34	0.16	0.0
February 16	42	30	0.00	0.0
February 17	41	30	0.00	0.0
February 18	43	30	0.00	0.0
February 19	42	23	0.01	0.1
February 20	24	6	0.00	0.0
February 21	24	3	0.00	0.0
February 22	27	20	0.21	0.1
February 23	34	23	0.18	0.2
February 24	45	21	0.00	0.0
February 25	29	18	0.00	0.0
February 26	26	11	0.00	0.0
February 27	24	8	0.00	0.0
February 28	34	10	0.01	0.0

March 1950 Allentown Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
March 1	45	25	0.00	0.0
March 2	26	11	0.00	0.0
March 3	27	8	0.00	0.0
March 4	35	7	0.00	0.0
March 5	57	15	0.00	0.0
March 6	44	23	0.00	0.0
March 7	42	15	0.00	0.0
March 8	64	32	1.01	0.0
March 9	35	20	0.00	0.0
March 10	35	20	0.00	0.0
March 11	42	20	0.14	0.3
March 12	50	32	0.01	0.0
March 13	35	30	0.31	0.0
March 14	38	23	0.00	0.0
March 15	49	24	0.00	0.0
March 16	33	22	0.00	0.0
March 17	44	25	0.00	0.0
March 18	40	22	0.02	0.0
March 19	44	17	0.00	0.0
March 20	47	19	0.01	0.0
March 21	43	33	1.06	0.0
March 22	40	34	0.44	0.0
March 23	39	34	0.68	0.0
March 24	50	34	0.00	0.0
March 25	47	30	0.04	0.0
March 26	50	31	0.58	0.0
March 27	48	35	0.01	0.0
March 28	72	48	0.18	0.0
March 29	56	30	0.09	0.0
March 30	42	27	0.00	0.0
March 31	48	22	0.00	0.0

The warmest January on record Analog. lol. 

[AtlanticWx]

gefs continues steps towards eps, nearly identical at day 7/8 now

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, frd said:

The MJO is connected to other weather teleconnections, The MJO phase 8 cold and snow,  by itself is not a a guaranteed correlation in the East , especially outside of New England according to @burgwx. This was an interesting read, as I already knew the MJO is just one of many players, but this post below by Tomer takes that point home. 

FROM Tomer Burg  @burgwx

<

there’s no strong nor even close to a guaranteed correlation between MJO phase 8 & cold/snow pattern in the East. Besides the strongest correlation being in New England with a lower correlation elsewhere, the MJO isn’t the sole driver of global weather patterns & in this case there’s too much working against the establishment of a colder pattern, including the lack of sufficient cold across southern Canada — the source region for our upcoming air masses is warmer than average over Canada, which would do little to favor more than transient periods of near-below normal temps before trending warmer again. >

>

 

 

 

OK please forgive me for the late night possibly impaired rant but I am putting aside my science hat and gonna release my inner Ji for a moment here....

I HATE THOSE GUYS...like hate hate hate Furtado with the fire of a thousand suns.  He has always been right btw, but he only seems to pop up in my twitter feed or on here when its to tell us how the MJO or some other tele isn't going to actually cause cold like we expect because of some other intervening countermanding factor.  He did this years ago showing how "actually in a nina and a -QBO Phase 1 is actually warm" crap and another time it was "during high solar and a strong PV Phase 8 is warm".  Now its "when the PV is strong ALL THE COLD PHASES ARE WARM" WTF.  And I have repeatedly asked him "then what correlates to cold during these conditions" and he has never once answered...I guess we know the truth NOTHING DOES.  Again, he is always right...but its annoying that he always shows up to explain just how FOOKED we are lol.  Oh and this is why I don't waste time on the MJO like some people.  Look at the correlation charts...the warm phases have a super high correlation to our temps...and the cold phases have almost no significant correlation!  So in other words when the MJO goes into warm phases we are definitely screwed...but when it goes into cold phases...it might not help us at all.  Great.  And if you really want to get depressed last year someone posted a chart that showed over the last 20 years just about NOTHING correlates to cold in the east... lol 

 

Sorry rant over, just had too. 

[pazzo83]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

OK please forgive me for the late night possibly impaired rant but I am putting aside my science hat and gonna release my inner Ji for a moment here....

I HATE THOSE GUYS...like hate hate hate Furtado with the fire of a thousand suns.  He has always been right btw, but he only seems to pop up in my twitter feed or on here when its to tell us how the MJO or some other tele isn't going to actually cause cold like we expect because of some other intervening countermanding factor.  He did this years ago showing how "actually in a nina and a -QBO Phase 1 is actually warm" crap and another time it was "during high solar and a strong PV Phase 8 is warm".  Now its "when the PV is strong ALL THE COLD PHASES ARE WARM" WTF.  And I have repeatedly asked him "then what correlates to cold during these conditions" and he has never once answered...I guess we know the truth NOTHING DOES.  Again, he is always right...but its annoying that he always shows up to explain just how FOOKED we are lol.  Oh and this is why I don't waste time on the MJO like some people.  Look at the correlation charts...the warm phases have a super high correlation to our temps...and the cold phases have almost no significant correlation!  So in other words when the MJO goes into warm phases we are definitely screwed...but when it goes into cold phases...it might not help us at all.  Great.  And if you really want to get depressed last year someone posted a chart that showed over the last 20 years just about NOTHING correlates to cold in the east... lol 

 

Sorry rant over, just had too. 

Frankly, I think this best captures the snow-lover's dilemma in this area - for the most part, we are f'd.  The base state is becoming increasingly hostile to non-negligible likelihood significant snow events.

[cbmclean]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

OK please forgive me for the late night possibly impaired rant but I am putting aside my science hat and gonna release my inner Ji for a moment here....

I HATE THOSE GUYS...like hate hate hate Furtado with the fire of a thousand suns.  He has always been right btw, but he only seems to pop up in my twitter feed or on here when its to tell us how the MJO or some other tele isn't going to actually cause cold like we expect because of some other intervening countermanding factor.  He did this years ago showing how "actually in a nina and a -QBO Phase 1 is actually warm" crap and another time it was "during high solar and a strong PV Phase 8 is warm".  Now its "when the PV is strong ALL THE COLD PHASES ARE WARM" WTF.  And I have repeatedly asked him "then what correlates to cold during these conditions" and he has never once answered...I guess we know the truth NOTHING DOES.  Again, he is always right...but its annoying that he always shows up to explain just how FOOKED we are lol.  Oh and this is why I don't waste time on the MJO like some people.  Look at the correlation charts...the warm phases have a super high correlation to our temps...and the cold phases have almost no significant correlation!  So in other words when the MJO goes into warm phases we are definitely screwed...but when it goes into cold phases...it might not help us at all.  Great.  And if you really want to get depressed last year someone posted a chart that showed over the last 20 years just about NOTHING correlates to cold in the east... lol 

 

Sorry rant over, just had too. 

So if warm phases mean we are screwed, and "cold" phases mean we may be screwed, we still prefer the cold phases, because screwage is not certain.

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So if warm phases mean we are screwed, and "cold" phases mean we may be screwed, we still prefer the cold phases, because screwage is not certain.

He actually has proved something I speculated about before. By showing that when other factors are bad the mjo cold phases don’t really correlate to cold it confirms that the mjo cold phases really only have a lot of impact when the pattern base state is cold.  When we’re in a modoki Nino with a -QBO and low solar then sure it correlates to cold lol. 

[Heisy]

Here she comes, we’ll see where/how strong our 11th 50/50 event forms




.

[Heisy]

That ULL over SE Canada might be too much of a good thing, but we’ll see




.

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That ULL over SE Canada might be too much of a good thing, but we’ll see




.

A cutter probably ain't a fail scenario here...just the squash factory (ack, I don't like squash...I find it a rather revolting vegetable)

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

That ULL over SE Canada might be too much of a good thing, but we’ll see




.

Where ya thinking about chasing?

[CAPE]

0z EPS. Pretty steady compared to the last couple GFS/GEFS runs.

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

0z EPS. Pretty steady compared to the last couple GFS/GEFS runs.

6z gefs made improvements at h5 on the means with a better ridge out west and diggier sw. Still having issues with the predecessor that becomes the 50/50 (or not). Stronger primary with cluster in the Lakes for the system you posted.

Eta: still a decent signal regardless...again h5 was better 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looks like our 2 minor potential events in the mid range went POOF. Too fast of a flow. Maybe some mangled wet passing flakes Sunday night but temps are still marginal. Other system races/slides South that will be one of the player for the Jan 14ish system. 

[LP08]

Progress

[IronTy]

The two posts above really highlight the futility of this hobby.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

The two posts above really highlight the futility of this hobby.  

Yep, one step forward, two steps back. Then you look at the ens means for some lr hope and just choke on your own vomit.

[Terpeast]

Both LWX and Mt Holly has eyes on the event next week with the usual uncertainty disclaimers. 

[jayyy]

Looks like our 2 minor potential events in the mid range went POOF. Too fast of a flow. Maybe some mangled wet passing flakes Sunday night but temps are still marginal. Other system races/slides South that will be one of the player for the Jan 14ish system. 

I’ll take flat and progressive this far out (system sliding south) over seeing flush hits 9-10 days out any day of the week. The trend this years been fairly consistent. Things tend to look more amplified as we get closer. D5 has been the sweet spot for when models begin to converge on the details. Flat and out to sea to our south at D9 sounds fine to me. Plenty of room and time for things to trend our way. I’d be more concerned if it was showing a big storm this far out, knowing full well it won’t hold for a week and a half.


.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Both LWX and Mt Holly has eyes on the event next week with the usual uncertainty disclaimers. 

it would be comical to have some of Ralph's comments above included in the official forecast discussion. 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the end of the weekend, low pressure system centered near the
Ohio River Valley will eventually move further east toward the Mid-
Atlantic region late in the day and into the start of the work-week.
During the day on Sunday, most precipitation is expected to remain
across the western most areas. It appears like we are in a one step forward 
two steps back type pattern for the mid term our as our 2 minor potential events in the mid range went POOF 
like a fart in gym shorts.  Long term is still a steaming turd show as we look at the ens means for some 
hope of winter but just continue to  choke on our own vomit.  Stay tuned!

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Both LWX and Mt Holly has eyes on the event next week with the usual uncertainty disclaimers. 

Pretty sure most here are in that boat as well....eyes open but usual caveats. My gut says we either watch it end up sliding S and E under us or we play the thread the needle game with marginal temps and a good track. Not debbing but the overall look while yes, depicting a coastal, is not screaming snowstorm...unless something changes in future runs. H5 and surface look half decent...seeing all those things we like....banana high. 50/50, brief pna spike, digging sw....but the firehose scoured out Canada and we are still trying to reestablish the cold air source during this timeframe.

Eta: waiting for you to tell me not to focus on temps but I'm looking large scale here....not rain/snow lines within some 10 mile radius