CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The MJO sure looks promising. Hopefully the teleconnections will soon trend more favorably. Has anyone ever tried correlating MJO phases with how teleconnections line up? this is pretty decent. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: this is pretty decent. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: this is pretty decent. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php I wish some of those maps showed more than just the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS a bit further south, offshore, slightly weaker signal than 12z. Noise. On to the next cycle. this storm has you all over it and a Loudoun miss. Congrats 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I wish some of those maps showed more than just the tropics. This is a pretty cool interactive resource. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/mjoanalogs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 5 hours ago, CAPE said: This is going to be one of those systems with little precip to the left of the low isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Heck of a signal for 9/10 days out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 what are the odds of two buoys failing? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: what are the odds of two buoys failing? 2 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Ok sorry if I misinterpreted, but calling a deterministic model atrocious and asking about validation scores based on one op run 10 days out makes it sound like you are worried, despite explicitly saying you aren't immediately after. He's tired of chasing and seeks "the one" where he can stay at home and just enjoy. Those are few and far between, so I dont blame him being a little worried. Most times these 10 day fantasy storms just dont pan out or end up smacking a totally different area than ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Heck of a signal for 9/10 days out. eps is even crazier. lowkey exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is going to be one of those systems with little precip to the left of the low isn't it? Lets worry about those details at <D4, not D10… Just having a threat as depicted is interesting though. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: I'd agree that it's noise. still keeps the focus on the late-week wave and this is still a formidable signal. all that matters right now Decent 'signal' overall. If I'm nitpicking at all I don't like how these PNA ridges have been progressive lately and just rolling over. Would like to see that PNA ridge axis about 150 miles or so farther West with subsequent trof going neutral/neg near the Mississippi River longitude. But again, just nitpicking the model if we are truly looking for what can go wrong...which based on this would be progressive PNA ridge, a little too far east as the s/w is moving into the TV...likely a fish storm with that look verbatim. On to 0z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 I think it was DT that said years ago the tip of the trough needs to be around New Orleans for optimal track and impact as a general rule. East of that and it’s likely too east for MA. Above is around PNS. Imagine other factors as well. Probably not a hard and fast rule but a rule of thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Decent 'signal' overall. If I'm nitpicking at all I don't like how these PNA ridges have been progressive lately and just rolling over. Would like to see that PNA ridge axis about 150 miles or so farther West with subsequent trof going neutral/neg near the Mississippi River longitude. But again, just nitpicking the model if we are truly looking for what can go wrong...which based on this would be progressive PNA ridge, a little too far east as the s/w is moving into the TV...likely a fish storm with that look verbatim. On to 0z. As depicted that's out to sea. Long way to go though. Let's reel this one in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Decent 'signal' overall. If I'm nitpicking at all I don't like how these PNA ridges have been progressive lately and just rolling over. Would like to see that PNA ridge axis about 150 miles or so farther West with subsequent trof going neutral/neg near the Mississippi River longitude. But again, just nitpicking the model if we are truly looking for what can go wrong...which based on this would be progressive PNA ridge, a little too far east as the s/w is moving into the TV...likely a fish storm with that look verbatim. On to 0z. honestly we just need everything to trend slower and amped which it’s doing rn imo always on the screwed side when things trend slower and more amped but for once, we’re in the clear ig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Decent 'signal' overall. If I'm nitpicking at all I don't like how these PNA ridges have been progressive lately and just rolling over. Would like to see that PNA ridge axis about 150 miles or so farther West with subsequent trof going neutral/neg near the Mississippi River longitude. But again, just nitpicking the model if we are truly looking for what can go wrong...which based on this would be progressive PNA ridge, a little too far east as the s/w is moving into the TV...likely a fish storm with that look verbatim. On to 0z. I'd rather it be a fish storm and miss that way...then to nail VA/NC and scrape us with flurries, lol (although that would still be more than we've seen!) That's my main reasoj for skepticism: That this hits a wall and can't come far enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The MJO sure looks promising. Hopefully the teleconnections will soon trend more favorably. Has anyone ever tried correlating MJO phases with how teleconnections line up? The MJO is connected to other weather teleconnections, The MJO phase 8 cold and snow, by itself is not a a guaranteed correlation in the East , especially outside of New England according to @burgwx. This was an interesting read, as I already knew the MJO is just one of many players, but this post below by Tomer takes that point home. FROM Tomer Burg @burgwx < there’s no strong nor even close to a guaranteed correlation between MJO phase 8 & cold/snow pattern in the East. Besides the strongest correlation being in New England with a lower correlation elsewhere, the MJO isn’t the sole driver of global weather patterns & in this case there’s too much working against the establishment of a colder pattern, including the lack of sufficient cold across southern Canada — the source region for our upcoming air masses is warmer than average over Canada, which would do little to favor more than transient periods of near-below normal temps before trending warmer again. > > 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: always on the screwed side when things trend slower and more amped but for once, we’re in the clear ig Don’t doubt the west trend, when all is said and done we will probably be sitting here hoping for an east trend as Buffalo gets another blizzard. Or it’s going to slide off the South Carolina coast, at this point who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Heck of a signal for 9/10 days out. Always 10 days away 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 I95 has been screwed by every 6"+ event advertised in the 3-16 day time frame since 2019. The one solid event January last year wasn't picked up until 36hrs out. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 i don’t get why this forum is so negative when tracking storms. yes we’ve had a lot of misses but not every storm works out. imo tracking is really fun and always coming in with low expectations for each storm just kinda ruins the whole vibe of winter storm tracking yk. even if it misses u won’t be happy you were right that nothing happened, just enjoy tracking while you can even if the storm suddenly becomes a buffalo blizzard or a fish storm no hate just an observation with the mojo of this forum compared to say 33andrain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 This thread is a lifesuck. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is going to be one of those systems with little precip to the left of the low isn't it? Yep, what we have been battling for a bit a progressive pattern understatement really. Nothing can lock in whether it is the cold precipitation holding on and waiting for the cold to crash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, mattie g said: This thread is a lifesuck. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, mattie g said: This thread is a lifesuck. Absolutely horrendous! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Absolutely horrendous! Getting burned a lot does strange things to us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Getting burned a lot does strange things to us. Yeah I mean...I'm not sure how people can look at the last 6-7 years of overall snow mediocrity and then suppose it's a great mystery why so many of us are salty, lol Now I absolutely understand wanting to have less complaining and more discussion. However...particularly between runs, the saltiness is gonna leak out. I mean how can it not? This has been an absolutely brutal stretch! Ain't gonna be perfectly positive in here, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I mean...I'm not sure how people can look at the last 6-7 years of overall snow mediocrity and then suppose it's a great mystery why so many of us are salty, lol Now I absolutely understand wanting to have less complaining and more discussion. However...particularly between runs, the saltiness is gonna leak out. I mean how can it not? This has been an absolutely brutal stretch! Ain't gonna be perfectly positive in here, lol I get it! I'm just as frustrated and aggrevated as anyone. What bothers me is that you have a handful of bad posters that have no trouble spending hours on this board yet they don't seem to have any time to really learn and as result their posts stink. Sure, it's ok to vent a little but on the other hand try to become educated. We're lucky to have some of the best insight and knowledge available through some fantastic posters and red taggers. I have noticed that you personally have made an effort to learn and you ask some good questions. We just need a few more regulars to follow suit. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, HighStakes said: I get it! I'm just as frustrated and aggrevated as anyone. What bothers me is that you have a handful of bad posters that have no trouble spending hours on this board yet they don't seem to have any time to really learn and as result their posts stink. Sure, it's ok to vent a little but on the other hand try to become educated. We're lucky to have some of the best insight and knowledge available through some fantastic posters and red taggers. I have noticed that you personally have made an effort to learn and you ask some good questions. We just need a few more regulars to follow suit. Thanks for this! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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