January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would still take the eps over the gefs. First of all that HAS to be cold enough for several reasons. Look at the flow. 

That isn’t pac puke. It’s predominantly CP with even some cross polar arctic. Yes it will have a little more MP mixed in without the full lat epo ridge the gefs has but that look has never been a “that too warm” pattern. 
 

GEFS look worried me a little. The epo ridge is too far west. Not enough pna. The pna is way more correlated to snow here than the epo. The longwave pattern on the gefs is way more likely to be a warm wet cold dry one. 
 

It’s also less sustainable. We want the tpv displaced but not overly. A full altitude epo ridge that causes a major tpv displacement and full lat trough is usually very short lived. Once the tpv progresses the trough lifts.  Ideally we want a more west to east flow with cold over the top not these huge jet amplifications.  That’s why I hate when people throw around March 93 analogs. That look can lead to a huge storm ya but more often it leads to nothing in terms of snow for us. 

Give me the better longwave setup on the euro with a less amplified flow and a flow off the arctic into our source regions and I’ll roll with that.  Then if it turns out that’s actually is too warm I know it’s time to quit this hobby because I have no interest in being relegated to rooting for weak progressive boundary waves to give me table scraps every blue moon.  

 

Agree, but it looks better than previous runs because it has the TPV in that location and oriented that way. Would expect it to be colder at the surface given that look, so that part 'worries' me. Marginal cold has not worked for the coastal plain nearly as well in recent winters.

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Agree, but it looks better than previous runs because it has the TPV in that location and oriented that way. Would expect it to be colder at the surface given that look, so that part 'worries' me. Marginal cold has not worked for the coastal plain nearly as well in recent winters.

Unfortunately it might be correct...just glance at the whole hemisphere and its easy to see the yellow is way more prevalent that the blue.  It takes a lot more to get "below normal" anomalies lately.  The GEFS is more balanced but it also has the more pronounced cold bias. 

 

But here is where I am.   If that pattern on the EPS is too warm...I would rather find out conclusively because I really do mean it, if that's true I am done tracking.  Because if its true that the only way we can get cold enough to snow is with a huge full latitude EPO ridge, what that means is the last 7 years are not an anomaly but are the new normal.  Because we are NEVER going to get a truly snowy period from that kind of pattern.  For starters its just too rare.  It's never going to be a sustainable long term solution to our snow drought.  And second...even when we do get that rare pattern its often not even a snowy one.  If we only snow in these EPO cross polar patterns the truth is the last 7 years is simply the normal now and its not worth tracking to me...the same way I didn't bother to track when I was in NC many years ago.  I just took whatever snow came but I knew it was too rare to waste time on it.   But I don't believe that.  Despite my position that has been made clear, I do also think its possible if not likely we are ALSO in a cyclical down period dominated by a hostile PAC.  Two things can be true.  I still hold out hope that if the PAC backs off we can get cold enough in a more canonical snowy pattern.  But I want to see some evidence of it. 

[psuhoffman]

On 1/10/2023 at 7:27 AM, mappy said:

Agreed

We have a climate change forum, friends. If you really gotta scratch that itch to discuss whether we are warming or not, please do so here:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/

 

Thanks!

Management

Where is the thread to discuss whether the Earth is round, or whether 2+2 is 4?  

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where is the thread to discuss whether the Earth is round, or whether 2+2 is 4?  

Oh dear. Now there’s definitely a storm brewing with the 12z runs.

[Ralph Wiggum]

 CFS just shit the bed for our February month of winter and cold redemption. However there is hope....it now says March is going to feature BN temps and a workable longwave pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Oh dear. Now there’s definitely a storm brewing with the 12z runs.

[jayyy]

0z GEFS is dropping the hammer in the LR, continuing the idea of a southward displaced TPV. More ridging in the the NAO domain helps facilitate this. The overall h5 look up top is impressive. CMC ens is very similar. 

Lots of confluence between LR ensembles this go around. Obviously things can change, but we may finally get the pac relief we’ve so desperately needed


.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 CFS just shit the bed for our February month of winter and cold redemption. However there is hope....it now says March is going to feature BN temps and a workable longwave pattern. 

So does the GEFS ext.  By Feb 1 we are back to a no hope hostile torch pattern that looks to last a LONG time.  And best part...it does it in the complete opposite way.  We go from an unworkable Pac trough nino pattern to an unworkable Pac ridge Nina pattern.  Unfortunately this was my fear that I said a couple weeks ago.  How long do we really expect the pac jet to relax for?  How long has it relaxed recently?   Problem is if the pac jet resumes it stronger base state we are left with such a narrow path to victory.  Pac trough and the jet cuts under and floods MP air in, ridge and it goes over the top and still floods plus it puts whatever trough there is in the west.  Either we we lose.  We basically need an absolutely perfectly placed trough right near the Aleutians but not too far east or west to have any shot in the current base state.  There are way way way more losing configurations than winning ones when the pac jet is enhanced like this. 

  

[jayyy]

 CFS just shit the bed for our February month of winter and cold redemption. However there is hope....it now says March is going to feature BN temps and a workable longwave pattern. 

The CFS has been pretty terrible though. If it were right in the 2-3 week range, we would have had an epic mid December into January.


.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

The CFS has been pretty terrible though. If it were right in the 2-3 week range, we would have had an epic mid December into January.


.

The GEFS has a similar evolution to a canonical Feb nina look though.  That doesn't mean they are right but both had the colder look recently and both evolve the same way.  Another reason I keep saying root for the EPS.  It may be the least cold but its a more sustainable pattern than the GEFS look.  

[jayyy]

Unfortunately it might be correct...just glance at the whole hemisphere and its easy to see the yellow is way more prevalent that the blue.  It takes a lot more to get "below normal" anomalies lately.  The GEFS is more balanced but it also has the more pronounced cold bias. 
 
But here is where I am.   If that pattern on the EPS is too warm...I would rather find out conclusively because I really do mean it, if that's true I am done tracking.  Because if its true that the only way we can get cold enough to snow is with a huge full latitude EPO ridge, what that means is the last 7 years are not an anomaly but are the new normal.  Because we are NEVER going to get a truly snowy period from that kind of pattern.  For starters its just too rare.  It's never going to be a sustainable long term solution to our snow drought.  And second...even when we do get that rare pattern its often not even a snowy one.  If we only snow in these EPO cross polar patterns the truth is the last 7 years is simply the normal now and its not worth tracking to me...the same way I didn't bother to track when I was in NC many years ago.  I just took whatever snow came but I knew it was too rare to waste time on it.   But I don't believe that.  Despite my position that has been made clear, I do also think its possible if not likely we are ALSO in a cyclical down period dominated by a hostile PAC.  Two things can be true.  I still hold out hope that if the PAC backs off we can get cold enough in a more canonical snowy pattern.  But I want to see some evidence of it. 

Firm believer that the base state, and the resulting hostile PAC, is to blame for our woes. I don’t believe that we can’t do prolonged cold and snow in our parts anymore, but it is becoming quite clear that the PAC has a lot more influence than it used to. So long as it’s puking like a hungover college kid, we are sitting ducks tracking scraps via long range ensembles.

We’ve primarily been dealing with niña conditions and an overwhelming PAC since 2016, outside of a few periods when it has “relaxed”. I do agree that if we can’t get more than a few days of relief from the PACs onslaught, it may be time to throw in the towel on tracking this season and pick back up next winter when it looks like we will finally be in a much more friendly longwave pattern. #modoki

I’ll gladly enjoy a surprise snowfall or two if we can manage it in February, but it’s getting exhausting tracking these potential windows of PAC relief 14-21 days out, just to see them disappear as we get closer or only pan out for a few days at a time.


.

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So does the GEFS ext.  By Feb 1 we are back to a no hope hostile torch pattern that looks to last a LONG time.  And best part...it does it in the complete opposite way.  We go from an unworkable Pac trough nino pattern to an unworkable Pac ridge Nina pattern.  Unfortunately this was my fear that I said a couple weeks ago.  How long do we really expect the pac jet to relax for?  How long has it relaxed recently?   Problem is if the pac jet resumes it stronger base state we are left with such a narrow path to victory.  Pac trough and the jet cuts under and floods MP air in, ridge and it goes over the top and still floods plus it puts whatever trough there is in the west.  Either we we lose.  We basically need an absolutely perfectly placed trough right near the Aleutians but not too far east or west to have any shot in the current base state.  There are way way way more losing configurations than winning ones when the pac jet is enhanced like this. 

  

Winter 2022-23.... the year that made 1997-98 look like Antarctica in the Eastern US.

[jayyy]

The GEFS has a similar evolution to a canonical Feb nina look though.  That doesn't mean they are right but both had the colder look recently and both evolve the same way.  Another reason I keep saying root for the EPS.  It may be the least cold but its a more sustainable pattern than the GEFS look.  

Agreed. You’re definitely right about the TPV. When it displaced southeast in late December, we got some epic cold for 3 days and then it scoured out awfully quickly, which is of little help when we’re looking for snow. I’d much rather have it stay put and throw workable cold air our way (EPS) then overwhelm us and then scour out (GEFS) Being in the 30s with snow chances for a couple weeks sounds much better than a few days in the teens and being bone dry.


.

[WxUSAF]

Meh. CFS flip flops like a fish, but seems “ok” to me for Feb. GEFSX would mean my magnolia is blooming after Valentine’s Day. I’m not going to worry about a workable pattern ending until the workable pattern at least arrives. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Meh. CFS flip flops like a fish, but seems “ok” to me for Feb. GEFSX would mean my magnolia is blooming after Valentine’s Day. I’m not going to worry about a workable pattern ending until the workable pattern at least arrives. 

GEFSX looks GREAT for my PD Colorado trip.  

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Where is the thread to discuss whether the Earth is round, or whether 2+2 is 4?  

You better check with Kyrie...

[FPizz]

52 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Winter 2022-23.... the year that made 1997-98 look like Antarctica in the Eastern US.

50th anniversary for Philly getting a no snow winter.  

[Terpeast]

I didn't have to go through any previous pages on this thread to know that we're dealing with (yet another) headfake and/or can kick. 

This winter blows.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 CFS just shit the bed for our February month of winter and cold redemption. However there is hope....it now says March is going to feature BN temps and a workable longwave pattern. 

I do trust the March will be below normal and windy, we seem to be good at doing that.   Of course that just means highs in the mid-40s with cold sun and wind. 

I specifically take a vacation during March because cold march weather sucks and is useless.  

[peribonca]

Could be one of the few years where March is colder than January. 

[Blizzard Hunter]

Over the last five plus years, the trend has been when we observe models and say "we need X,Y or Z to happen for big snow" by the next model run the opposite happens and all hope for snow is gone. Have we tried to fool weather gods by saying we want whatever will happen to bring us mild rain to show up on next run?  

[mattie g]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There is no doubt that an epo ridge that unlocks cross polar flow can still deliver cold. Problem is an epo ridge isn’t actually, historically, a good way to get a lot of snow.  For every 2014 there are 5 examples that didn’t work.  See last January. It worked for some in a fairly small geographic area but I had barely any snow at all.  It wasn’t a widespread snowy pattern. But let’s see how this plays out. It’s going to depend on other factors. Right now they look favorable. My frustration is that it seems we’ve stacked one more variable that now needs to be favorable for us to have any shot.  

For this year, at least.

[jayyy]

For this year, at least.

That’s my take on it too. I don’t think we’ve lost the ability to get where we need to be. We’ve just seen an epically long period of the PAC overwhelming the living shit out of our climo. Can’t wait for this never ending niña to go away.


.

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, jayyy said:

Lots of confluence between LR ensembles this go around. Obviously things can change, but we may finally get the pac relief we’ve so desperately needed


.

that looks like cutter and inland runners with the position of the western ridge, east central trough, and the ridging off the east coast.  although that might just be an average, or moment in time.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

50th anniversary for Philly getting a no snow winter.  

Wonder what the “base state” for that winter was?

[WinterWxLuvr]

This thread needs to end right now. I tried to lead but only lead us off a cliff. Somebody’s start the new one pronto. Lol

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This thread needs to end right now. I tried to lead but only lead us off a cliff. Somebody’s start the new one pronto. Lol

GFS about to end it all when this rains 3" on all of us

 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Wonder what the “base state” for that winter was?

Strong el nino 

El nino's are generally a good thing but if the pacific trough is too strong and too far east it can be "too much of a good thing" and flood the CONUS with MP air.  1992, 1995, 1998 being other examples where it didn't go the way we wanted.  

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This thread needs to end right now. I tried to lead but only lead us off a cliff. Somebody’s start the new one pronto. Lol

I've NEVER started a long range thread.  Should we give it a shot? 

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, jayyy said:

That’s my take on it too. I don’t think we’ve lost the ability to get where we need to be. We’ve just seen an epically long period of the PAC overwhelming the living shit out of our climo. Can’t wait for this never ending niña to go away.


.

Oh I am SURE we are still capable of a good pattern and snow.  I've said numerous times that a lot of these patterns we've been in recently would have been pretty sucky in any time period.  We've been in a bad cycle in terms of the most important factor, the pacific.  But at the same time...I think its true that kinda sucky is getting worse.  My point was if we look at past comp periods we were able to often salvage SOME SNOW out of those periods with a perfect track system in an otherwise crap pattern, where as now...its weeks and weeks of no hope because a positive anomaly pattern is now so freaking warm its just shit the blinds time.