January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

we have yet to see two models agree on a snowstorm for us closer than 192-204 hours out

Gfs in great with nailing cutters. 

[J.Mike]

I hear you Ji, I could openly weep.

[Ji]

Where is the snowy front end?

[Eskimo Joe]

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

Never seen a winter with so many long duration shutout windows

New normal.

[Wxdavis5784]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Where is the snowy front end?

Southern Wisconsin.

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

anyone read Mark Margarabge on Twitter? Zero chance that guy is a real met..or even a fake one

My take is he figured JB needed some competition in the junk clown met division. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

Where is the snowy front end?

A healthy WAA precip shield requires sufficient cold air. Hard to create “overrunning” when there is no cold to over run!  

[BristowWx]

40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

New normal.

Nothing can last forever.  This pattern has to break eventually.  No way we go from now to April with AN temps with no break.  The 10 day forecast does look like April however.  So we wait that long at least.  And hope the trees don’t bud out. 

[clskinsfan]

46 minutes ago, Ji said:

Where is the snowy front end?

Problem is the cutter on the 17th/18th is a weak pos and doesnt bring any cold air in behind it. If it was a stronger storm we would most likely get thumped in the front end with the next one. 

Edit: And by we I literally mean me. Out here. In the middle of nowhere. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Problem is the cutter on the 17th/18th is a weak pos and doesnt bring any cold air in behind it. If it was a stronger storm we would most likely get thumped in the front end with the next one. 

Edit: And by we I literally mean me. Out here. In the middle of nowhere. 

Not even worth the analysis.  Just gotta wait for a major change in the pattern.  And hope it happens.  All roads lead to a ditch no matter what the h5 looks like.    

[Heisy]

A healthy WAA precip shield requires sufficient cold air. Hard to create “overrunning” when there is no cold to over run!  

It’s waiting for his vacation to snow. I think our next shot will be around 24-26

Ridge a little weaker this run, still solid look though.






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[CAPE]

I thought this morning based on the latest ens guidance our first crack at something could be as early as around 10 days away, the 20th or so. The latest GEFS suggests a chance of a wave moving along the boundary around the 22nd with cold pressing SE. A simple path to victory in a pattern evolving as currently advertised.

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I thought this morning based on the latest ens guidance our first crack at something could be as early as around 10 days away, the 20th or so. The latest GEFS suggests a chance of a wave moving along the boundary around the 22nd with cold pressing SE. A simple path to victory in a pattern evolving as currently advertised.

Ya don't think that would be a tad soon? I'd thought we'd need until the  weekend to flush out the warmth, lol

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya don't think that would be a tad soon? I'd been thinking the next weekend in case we needed another few days to flush out the warmth, lol

Could be, but this represents the earliest possibility based on latest guidance. Several runs ago the odds of something interesting for this timeframe seemed remote.

[frd]

Maybe we can tap into a small portion of this deep arctic air late month, when the Pac turns more favorable.  

 

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=62;105;2&l=temperature-2m

 

 

 

 

[anotherman]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/01/10/below-average-northeast-snow/

[Rtd208]

I will remain skeptical on any pattern change until we are within 5-7 days and even then I will remain cautious. The PAC Jet is usually hard to "beat down" so to speak.

[jayyy]

I’m in northern maryland on 0.0 and have had literally just two minutes of light flurries this entire season in a forum where people are acting like we have Memphis, Tennessee's annual chances at snow.
 
So fuck off with all this. just…discuss weather. But take the climate warming change shit elsewhere. You clearly have a weird agenda to pretend it isn’t warming. Take it elsewhere. 

[jayyy]

I will remain skeptical on any pattern change until we are within 5-7 days and even then I will remain cautious. The PAC Jet is usually hard to "beat down" so to speak.

The entire key to our snow issue. A prolonged base state (and therefor PAC ) issue. Simple as that really. Can’t get prolonged cold, entrenched 50/50s etc, when you’re dealing with an overpowering cross flow all the time.

Once the pac gets beat down, it’s game time.


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[Heisy]

Now this we take…



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[Heisy]

Now this we take…



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This would be the beginning of the pattern change, so I don’t know if cold air has worked in yet, but damn this is usually almost a perfect setup. Main vort a little too strong, but have confluence and 50/50. Hopefully sign of things to come


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[Heisy]

00z gfs forms a rex block in the long range underneath the ridge, but you can see it’s about to dump the motherload of cold down south.

See once you get a true -epo ridge only a matter of time for cold to work in


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[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

The snowpack (or lack thereof) in the US. Talked to a friend in Cadillac Michigan who said there is no snow on the ground at all. It’s been warm most of the winter, in the 30s and 40’s. Folks up there are enjoying no snow, while we are here hoping to see blue on a model, 10 days out! So don’t give up hope, it’s not just the Mid Atlantic going through a snowless season.

[CAPE]

0z GEFS is dropping the hammer in the LR, continuing the idea of a southward displaced TPV. More ridging in the the NAO domain helps facilitate this. The overall h5 look up top is impressive. CMC ens is very similar. 

[CAPE]

Active look on the GEFS beyond the 20th. Remains to be seen how quickly colder air would bleed east and exactly where the thermal boundary will be. Signal for the 22nd is pretty strong but might be a little too soon to get a favorable track. Beyond that, there should be chances with colder air pressing.

[CAPE]

As discussed yesterday, the EPS is somewhat less robust with the -EPO, and doesn't get as much cold into our nearby source region, but still has a very favorable look in the LR. The TPV over N Canada is stretched southeastward with time.  It will be interesting to watch the trends wrt the specifics of the pattern evolution over the next several model cycles.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

0z GEFS is dropping the hammer in the LR, continuing the idea of a southward displaced TPV. More ridging in the the NAO domain helps facilitate this. The overall h5 look up top is impressive. CMC ens is very similar. 

Beggars can't be choosers but if this season has taught us anything so far it's that too much of a good thing isnt always good. No avocado tracking.....not again please 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Heisy said:

00z gfs forms a rex block in the long range underneath the ridge, but you can see it’s about to dump the motherload of cold down south.

See once you get a true -epo ridge only a matter of time for cold to work in


.

There is no doubt that an epo ridge that unlocks cross polar flow can still deliver cold. Problem is an epo ridge isn’t actually, historically, a good way to get a lot of snow.  For every 2014 there are 5 examples that didn’t work.  See last January. It worked for some in a fairly small geographic area but I had barely any snow at all.  It wasn’t a widespread snowy pattern. But let’s see how this plays out. It’s going to depend on other factors. Right now they look favorable. My frustration is that it seems we’ve stacked one more variable that now needs to be favorable for us to have any shot.  

[mappy]

22 hours ago, mappy said:

Agreed

We have a climate change forum, friends. If you really gotta scratch that itch to discuss whether we are warming or not, please do so here:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/

 

Thanks!

Management

A reminder. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

As discussed yesterday, the EPS is somewhat less robust with the -EPO, and doesn't get as much cold into our nearby source region, but still has a very favorable look in the LR. The TPV over N Canada is stretched southeastward with time.  It will be interesting to watch the trends wrt the specifics of the pattern evolution over the next several model cycles.

I would still take the eps over the gefs. First of all that HAS to be cold enough for several reasons. Look at the flow. 

That isn’t pac puke. It’s predominantly CP with even some cross polar arctic. Yes it will have a little more MP mixed in without the full lat epo ridge the gefs has but that look has never been a “that too warm” pattern. 
 

GEFS look worried me a little. The epo ridge is too far west. Not enough pna. The pna is way more correlated to snow here than the epo. The longwave pattern on the gefs is way more likely to be a warm wet cold dry one. 
 

It’s also less sustainable. We want the tpv displaced but not overly. A full altitude epo ridge that causes a major tpv displacement and full lat trough is usually very short lived. Once the tpv progresses the trough lifts.  Ideally we want a more west to east flow with cold over the top not these huge jet amplifications.  That’s why I hate when people throw around March 93 analogs. That look can lead to a huge storm ya but more often it leads to nothing in terms of snow for us. 

Give me the better longwave setup on the euro with a less amplified flow and a flow off the arctic into our source regions and I’ll roll with that.  Then if it turns out that’s actually is too warm I know it’s time to quit this hobby because I have no interest in being relegated to rooting for weak progressive boundary waves to give me table scraps every blue moon.