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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Blizzard Hunter said:

I apologize if your remark wasn't meant for me. Otherwise, I'm not sure what went over my head. 

That it wasn’t meant for you lol.

Just joking with you. You’ll learn I’m never serious, just sarcastic. Except I was serious about the one person lol

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33 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

What is even going on here.

gfs_z500a_atl_36.png

I think it’s picking up the same vort lobe as euro and cmc, but while these two phase under us, in the gfs they just miss each other and the secondary low goes OTS. Really fluky solutions all around just when we thought they locked into an ordinary fropa. 

Don’t get excited though. The simplest answer will most often turn out to be correct. Which in this case is fropa and nothing else. 

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47 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said:

Rain is most likely scenario as of now, but "flukey" is not the right word. We are almost in Mid January and I think the latest CMC run only strengthens my belief that models will correct to a colder solution. 

Nothing is trending towards a colder solution.  They are actually all trending even warmer still.  This is the storm we were tracking 72 hours ago on that CMC run

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.thumb.png.01e452425e0d1372560357f72c770f02.png

The primary system is toast.  Gone.  Forget it.  Its going to cut.  What guidance is trending towards now is the idea that a secondary piece of energy is going to dive in the back side and develop a new low along the coast after the front from the original system catches up...which would open the door some to a crazy scenario where the mid atlantic COULD get snow if everything went absolutely perfectly.  Yea I know that is not how we normally roll but once in a blue moon something like that can happen and why not end this streak that way.  But to say its trending colder is a gross misrepresentation of the situation.  

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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think it’s picking up the same vort lobe as euro and cmc, but while these two phase under us, in the gfs they just miss each other and the secondary low goes OTS. Really fluky solutions all around just when we thought they locked into an ordinary fropa. 

Don’t get excited though. The simplest answer will most often turn out to be correct. Which in this case is fropa and nothing else. 

The strange thing about that GFS run is that the low off the Carolinas has just retrograded like 750 miles from southeast of Bermuda to where it is in that panel due to - and then gets stuck under - that massive Quebec block (for lack of a better term).

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