January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[Heisy]

6z control gonna crush you guys with secondary CCB lol


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[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z control gonna crush you guys with secondary CCB lol


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getting incredibly lucky with something like that is probably the only realistic (if unlikely) way something works out in this situation we find ourselves in.  But that feature is going to move around every run from this lead.  That's something we want to see pop up in the last 24 hours to really be excited.  I'm not saying its impossible...someone somewhere will get lucky with it so why not us but we're talking about a two wave system with a double barrel structure both at the surface and upper levels and a redevelopment and locating a deform band which guidance struggles with in any setup.  So its gonna be a shotgun type thing on guidance until within very short range.  

[Heisy]

6z control gonna crush you guys with secondary CCB lol


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EPS ticked the other way though, a few members still show possibility, but this is a long shot either way


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[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS control….can we get something to trend in the right direction inside 5 days????

[paxpatriot]

28 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z control gonna crush you guys with secondary CCB lol


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That looks like an...interesting output. Can someone explain how something like that would even evolve?

[Amped]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS control….can we get something to trend in the right direction inside 5 days????

NE MD screwjob

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Wow just took a look at the EPS and GEFS.  Both are warm warm warm warm all the way through the ends of the runs.  Oh well.

Ok I’ve been leading the Deb brigade but this is just a flat lie.
 

Temp anomalies at the end of the EPS run

 

And it’s trending colder.  It may not be super cold but that’s a workable profile. And frankly the days of being really cold without some anomalous TPV displacement or direct arctic discharge (which isn’t even great for snow see Dec 23 ) are becoming rare.  Plus even the new 30 year means are skewed too cold since yes warming.  But we’re talking is it cold enough to snow. Compare that to now 

that profile now is unworkable. There is a huge difference between +10 and +3 temps in our source regions.  Look at the actual 850 temps day 15 on EPS

That’s not arctic cold no but it’s a very workable profile.  The issue is will it actually happen.  Guidance head faked a colder pattern for right now 15 days ago but that’s a different argument.  

 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, paxpatriot said:

 

That looks like an...interesting output. Can someone explain how something like that would even evolve?

Since TT only goes out to 90h so maybe someone else can post the h5 maps beyond that. Like brooklyn said, stronger vort coming in behind and then under the main ULL… Secondary sfc low forming along the main front.

I still think a run of the mill fropa is the most likely solution though. 

[stormtracker]

Control runs of the Euro almost never happen.  Don’t get the fascination with them. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

runs that show snow almost never happen.  Don’t get the fascination with them. 

Fixed 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Control runs of the Euro almost never happen.  Don’t get the fascination with them. 

Jokes aside... at the lead time we are entering now the control and op usually are pretty close.  It's reasonable to think the control at this range MIGHT indicate what the OP could have shown.   In the past, before these weird 6/18z euro's when someone posted a control run it was some day 9 thing where at that range the control and op start to diverge significantly...just like ANYTHING at that range is going to have spread due to exponential error as you get that far out.  But your point is still valid in that even if the op showed this solution at this range it would mean nothing.  A feature like that is going to jump around many times, if its even real, before we get to the event.  

[Blizzard Hunter]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Jokes aside... at the lead time we are entering now the control and op usually are pretty close.  It's reasonable to think the control at this range MIGHT indicate what the OP could have shown.   In the past, before these weird 6/18z euro's when someone posted a control run it was some day 9 thing where at that range the control and op start to diverge significantly...just like ANYTHING at that range is going to have spread due to exponential error as you get that far out.  But your point is still valid in that even if the op showed this solution at this range it would mean nothing.  A feature like that is going to jump around many times, if its even real, before we get to the event.  

Well said. I wonder if it is starting to pick up on a trend of trying to make things colder. Probably not, but sometimes weird runs like this mean changes are going to happen to future runs. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said:

Well said. I wonder if it is starting to pick up on a trend of trying to make things colder. Probably not, but sometimes weird runs like this mean changes are going to happen to future runs. 

The primary system cuts to Toronto. We torch. But it swings a NS SW in behind and develops a secondary storm that stalls right over Ocean City and the deform dynamically cools the column. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The primary system cuts to Toronto. We torch. But it swings a NS SW in behind and develops a secondary storm that stalls right over Ocean City and the deform dynamically cools the column. 

finally a solution that is not too complicated...knowing that would never happen it would be pretty awesome to witness

[Blizzard Hunter]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The primary system cuts to Toronto. We torch. But it swings a NS SW in behind and develops a secondary storm that stalls right over Ocean City and the deform dynamically cools the column. 

Thanks for giving the details. I don't buy any of the models showing primaries cutting to the west. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it would go against the more often right than wrong thinking that a storm will exit the coast at similar latitude where it came on. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS control….can we get something to trend in the right direction inside 5 days????

No

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, H2O said:

It might cool down by March. Just in time

Nailed it 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said:

Thanks for giving the details. I don't buy any of the models showing primaries cutting to the west. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it would go against the more often right than wrong thinking that a storm will exit the coast at similar latitude where it came on. 

Oh no… I’ve heard that “rule” used before but unfortunately often misused by maybe the most unreliable, unethical, and biggest crack pot sources there is!  JB 
 

In a very very very general sense the upper level feature will often exit about the same latitude.  But it’s by no means a hard rule. And the devil is in the details.  For instance in this case the primary surface low can cut to Ohio then a secondary forms off NJ with the upper low redeveloping off MD. That would accomplish the result of the system exiting at the same latitude but in a way that means absolutely nothing wrt our snow chances. 
 

 

[Blizzard Hunter]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh no… I’ve heard that “rule” used before but unfortunately often misused by maybe the most unreliable, unethical, and biggest crack pot sources there is!  JB 
 

In a very very very general sense the upper level feature will often exit about the same latitude.  But it’s by no means a hard rule. And the devil is in the details.  For instance in this case the primary surface low can cut to Ohio then a secondary forms off NJ with the upper low redeveloping off MD. That would accomplish the result of the system exiting at the same latitude but in a way that means absolutely nothing wrt our snow chances. 
 

 

Yes, I understand what you are saying and am fully aware that the low could cut to Ohio. My point is that right now models are showing mostly rain, which could happen. However, if a low does develop near VA, the snow probabilities would be greater than what is shown so far. I think models are taking energy/warmth too far north with initial low and may correct as time goes on. I think the same latitude to SF would be near VA, not MD. 

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said:

Yes, I understand what you are saying and am fully aware that the low could cut to Ohio. My point is that right now models are showing mostly rain, which could happen. However, if a low does develop near VA, the snow probabilities would be greater than what is shown so far. I think models are taking energy/warmth too far north with initial low and may correct as time goes on. I think the same latitude to SF would be near VA, not MD. 

The only way the coastal plain of the mid atl is getting snow from this is it something flukey happens exactly like that control run showed wrt a secondary development. The primary system is toast. 

[brooklynwx99]

CMC trended towards a stronger trailing wave and has earlier secondary development

 

[Ji]

lfg!

[Ji]

[jaydreb]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

lfg!

This is even better.  
 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

This is even better.  
 

Move that death band over Winchester and you problem are looking at the final solution 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

This is even better.  
 

we just need an 11 mile north trend in 7 days

[Fozz]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks about right, Maestro will love this 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

we just need an 11 mile north trend in 7 days

6

[mdhokie]

whats up with the hurricane on th gfs @ 198hr

[Blizzard Hunter]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The only way the coastal plain of the mid atl is getting snow from this is it something flukey happens exactly like that control run showed wrt a secondary development. The primary system is toast. 

Rain is most likely scenario as of now, but "flukey" is not the right word. We are almost in Mid January and I think the latest CMC run only strengthens my belief that models will correct to a colder solution.