Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Bob Chill
Bob Chill

Hey peeps, up to my eyeballs in mud, dirt, and rocks building a driveway by hand in VA. I'll post pics of deep mud and large rock accumulations later. Caught a sick sunset today tho I don't have

CAPE
CAPE

Pretty classic surface depiction for a MA snowstorm.

stormtracker
stormtracker

How we all should be when we see the long term models looking "good"  

Posted Images

Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Rvarookie said:

IMO overall discussion seems much better this year compared to others. Besides @Maestrobjwapanic, I think most folks have been pretty chill considering how shitty things have been

I think most of us "know" and are just trying to keep it light and have some fun with it since things are slow. There are more important things to worry about.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Right in time for Ji vacation
5db1696f947bbad74db3137a1036dcde.jpg


.

Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month. 

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month. 

Wouldn't it be ironic if we had two cold, dry -EPO periods sandwiched around the January Pack Puke warm/moist period.  Good thing for me I also enjoy cold dry weather. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month. 

This pattern progression has been right on schedule.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
GramaxRefugee

GramaxRefugee

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month. 

Hmmm....dude might be onto something. Hafta look for analog. Time will tell

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month. 

There is a reason the saying is 'warm/wet cold/dry, repeat'

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

All I’m saying is if we get 0 this year, how likely is it we will get 0 again next year? Maybe there’s a first for everything. 

Maybe your expectations are different, but I’d be content with 3”, let alone 7”

It’s not so much expectation as what’s worth getting excited over. I don’t expect it but what I want is what used to be a typical winter prior to 2016.  I’d take a 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015…basically what used to be 70% of our winters. Something like any of those above where it’s cold and snows a reasonable amount would be fine. But if we have to suffer a 0 just to get another one of these recent new normal single digit torch most of the winters no thanks.  It’s all just a different version of crap to me. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

If we get that tall coupled PNA and EPO ridge, it will build homegrown cold. It’s just physics. No WAA off the PAC coupled with low sun angle and radiating snow cover. Question is how fast and then how long to transport it south. You can probably do some sort of back of the envelope calculation on this… My intuition is something like 4-8 days to regenerate at least normal if not BN temps in central Canada, then another 3-5 days for southward transport. So if that ridge does develop with a trough in the east, maybe 6-7 days at least before you can fully flush the mild air out?

I think you’ve got the likely timeline correct. My concern was based on the last 7 years how often have we been able to build domestic cold?  The rare cold weve had seems to only come from cross polar flow periods. The pac hasn’t backed off for more than a week or two lately making it hard for the homegrown model to work. 
 

But maybe we’ve reached rock bottom. I’ll throw a nugget of optimism out there. Part of my pessimism is that enso neutral and negative winters that start this way tend to be total ratters. But if we were in a Nino I’d be saying “hold the line y’all” and citing all the late flips. A flip to cold late Jan after a dud start is common in ninos. And we’ve been in a very Nino ish pattern for most of the season so maybe this year continues to behave like one. 
 

That’s the best I can do on the hopeium front. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not so much expectation as what’s worth getting excited over. I don’t expect it but what I want is what used to be a typical winter prior to 2016.  I’d take a 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015…basically what used to be 70% of our winters. Something like any of those above where it’s cold and snows a reasonable amount would be fine. But if we have to suffer a 0 just to get another one of these recent new normal single digit torch most of the winters no thanks.  It’s all just a different version of crap to me. 

Yeah if this is the new normal, then it’s not worth being so invested in this hobby, at least for myself. And the fact that I don’t post here as much as I did in years past is probably a sign of moving on or at least divesting a bit in terms of time and emotions.

I won’t be satisfied with single digit winters, but if that’s what we get then there are plenty of other worthwhile things to do, like swimming or hitting the gym or some other hobby or activity where you can control the outcome. And then for the real diehards there is the option of moving north to a place that gets hundreds of inches, like the infamous PhineasC.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If I’m not mistaken both the eps and gefs had tremendous looks for next weekends storm. So …

I'm not sure they could be called tremendous.  The airmass was always horrible.  But both models "saw" that if everything went exactly right in the best possible way, a nice storm could result. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not so much expectation as what’s worth getting excited over. I don’t expect it but what I want is what used to be a typical winter prior to 2016.  I’d take a 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015…basically what used to be 70% of our winters. Something like any of those above where it’s cold and snows a reasonable amount would be fine. But if we have to suffer a 0 just to get another one of these recent new normal single digit torch most of the winters no thanks.  It’s all just a different version of crap to me. 

Ok. That’s your bar. 

I decided that mine would be one snowfall that at minimum covers the grass. Anything on top of that would be a bonus to me. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...