January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Believe it or not...I'm more at peace with this season being a dud then I am about future duds happening this way and more often (and a longer snow drought if things don't work out next year). One bad season ain't my issue...I get over fails that don't even make inside 5 days rather quickly, actually.

Things change. Phases happen. Some last decades. Like ppl are saying, assume it will never snow another flake in your life. Sad reality, it may not. Any one of us could drop dead tomorrow. Don't wallow over such things you don't have control over. I want a half billion dollars so I never have to work another day....so I play the mega millions periodically. The odds are I won't even get a single number right. Odds are I will never win. But I don't sulk and whine about it when I lose. If you don't expect to win you never really lose. Wow, that's a cool quote I just said. Maybe I can copyright it for royalties and make a half billion $$.:

[CAPE]

It's not going to be easy to get favorable 'trends' for a better outcome at our latitude outside of the higher terrain. The entire continental US and much of Canada is flooded with a mix of mP/mT air. Locate the cP air. TPV lobes are too poleward and transient 50-50 lows won't do much good in this case as even that 'cold' there in eastern Canada is not very cold. 

 

[CAPE]

On a positive note, all ensemble guidance continues to depict a pretty rapid transition to a more favorable h5 pattern just beyond mid month. We reload and try again.

 

[Terpeast]

Models showing almost no precip for tonight in my area, and no front end thump for the weekend storm. 

Looking like a shutout so far, and may end up that way this year.

Smart thing to do is take up another hobby, at least until the next el nino, and even that isn’t a guarantee (see: 97-98)

[Solution Man]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Models showing almost no precip for tonight in my area, and no front end thump for the weekend storm. 

Looking like a shutout so far, and may end up that way this year.

Smart thing to do is take up another hobby, at least until the next el nino, and even that isn’t a guarantee (see: 97-98)

I’m headed to Florida tomorrow morning for 5 days of golf. Going to forget about Winter for a while. 

[thunderbolt]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Models showing almost no precip for tonight in my area, and no front end thump for the weekend storm. 

Looking like a shutout so far, and may end up that way this year.

Smart thing to do is take up another hobby, at least until the next el nino, and even that isn’t a guarantee (see: 97-98)

Specially if it’s very strong like 97/98 Now if it’s a moderate one Like 2009 2010 that could be a different story as we all know

[CAPE]

I'll enjoy the winter we have. Perfect day to be outside doing pretty much anything.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

On a positive note, all ensemble guidance continues to depict a pretty rapid transition to a more favorable h5 pattern just beyond mid month. We reload and try again.

 

Look at the temps.  Canada is still torched. My fear is without a straight Siberian flow it takes forever to build domestic cold lately. Weeks. By then isn’t it likely the pattern shifts again and another pac attack wipes it out in the blink of an eye?  

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the temps.  Canada is still torched. My fear is without a straight Siberian flow it takes forever to build domestic cold lately. Weeks. By then isn’t it likely the pattern shifts again and another pac attack wipes it out in the blink of an eye?  

That's possible. For now I will stay optimistic. Almost all of the extended guidance indicates some persistence with below average temps by the end of the month and especially into early February.

If it ends up another mirage, so be it.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

It's not going to be easy to get favorable 'trends' for a better outcome at our latitude outside of the higher terrain. The entire continental US and much of Canada is flooded with a mix of mP/mT air. Locate the cP air. TPV lobes are too poleward and transient 50-50 lows won't do much good in this case as even that 'cold' there in eastern Canada is not very cold. 

 

GEFS shows a path to some opportunities way down the road. Finally seeing Canada cool down and some of that makes it down into the US. Of course we need that to bleed east. And all caveats apply at this range...this look may even be a head fake. We just can't know at this time. But it is a better look even at mid latitudes to NOT see inferno reds coast to coast and to our North. It's something. Kicking the can isn't fun but maybe late Jan and Feb will deliver?

[Weather Will]

By the third week of January we should see cold air building in Canada.  At least cold enough to snow if not below normal air…. And most of Canada should be snow covered so it can get into the U.S. if we can get the connections (EPO, PNA,) etc. to line up.  (0Z EPS first 2 pictures.) Harsh reality is that the latest extended GEFS (which actually did have a signal for the current period) is not showing a signal for another storm until the seven day period ending February 4.  Hopefully something will pop up before then but the bottom line is that the CURRENT consensus forecasts of the late January through mid February period are showing that the chances of snow during a portion of our prime climo period are alive and well.  Will the advertised pattern deliver?  Only God knows…and we will watch and wait.  

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS shows a path to some opportunities way down the road. Finally seeing Canada cool down and some of that makes it down into the US. Of course we need that to bleed east. And all caveats apply at this range...this look may even be a head fake. We just can't know at this time. But it is a better look even at mid latitudes to NOT see inferno reds coast to coast and to our North. It's something. Kicking the can isn't fun but maybe late Jan and Feb will deliver?

EPS shows more red. And can we really trust the GFS?

To add to my last post, if we do get zero’ed out this winter, at least we then know that there’s nowhere to go but up the following winter. 

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I'll enjoy the winter we have. Perfect day to be outside doing pretty much anything.

Except using the snowblower.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Things change. Phases happen. Some last decades. Like ppl are saying, assume it will never snow another flake in your life. Sad reality, it may not. Any one of us could drop dead tomorrow. Don't wallow over such things you don't have control over. I want a half billion dollars so I never have to work another day....so I play the mega millions periodically. The odds are I won't even get a single number right. Odds are I will never win. But I don't sulk and whine about it when I lose. If you don't expect to win you never really lose. Wow, that's a cool quote I just said. Maybe I can copyright it for royalties and make a half billion $$.:

C'mon man, go for the gold!

[WxUSAF]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

EPS shows more red. And can we really trust the GFS?

To add to my last post, if we do get zero’ed out this winter, at least we then know that there’s nowhere to go but up the following winter. 

My eyeball 2C is that the GEFS has done very well with the longwave pattern beyond D8 this winter. Even better than the EPS several times. But the euro suite is absolutely kicking the GFS/GEFS ass with individual storms inside of D7-8.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

28 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

EPS shows more red. And can we really trust the GFS?

To add to my last post, if we do get zero’ed out this winter, at least we then know that there’s nowhere to go but up the following winter. 

Haha, right!  In a strange, perverted way it would almost be interesting to get zeroed out (well a trace maybe) just from the historical perspective.  Like knowing your team is being no-hit, and thinking might as well watch a complete no-hitter while we're at it!  That said, I'm not hoping for anything like that anytime soon, but if it's getting toward March and we're still at zip with nothing on the horizon, that might change! 

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

EPS shows more red. And can we really trust the GFS?

To add to my last post, if we do get zero’ed out this winter, at least we then know that there’s nowhere to go but up the following winter. 

Except in Baltimore they’ve been saying that for 7 years and the next year just brings more crap lol. So I get the frustration. Is there really a high probability next year is snowy?  Unless all you mean is “we probably don’t get completely shut out again” but if we get 7” next year (which used to be a dreg awful jump from the bridges result prior to this current period) is that really worth waiting for?  

[Terpeast]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

My eyeball 2C is that the GEFS has done very well with the longwave pattern beyond D8 this winter. Even better than the EPS several times. But the euro suite is absolutely kicking the GFS/GEFS ass with individual storms inside of D7-8.

Good to know. I haven’t been looking at models since my last year here (2010) and I don’t remember the GFS being so bad with individual storms even inside 48-72h. It’s like they gone backwards to the 1980s modeling performance. 

At least the LR ensemble performance is somewhat credible. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

My eyeball 2C is that the GEFS has done very well with the longwave pattern beyond D8 this winter. Even better than the EPS several times. But the euro suite is absolutely kicking the GFS/GEFS ass with individual storms inside of D7-8.

The weird thing though is the eps longwave pattern is even better than the gefs.  It’s just warm. I find that part very believable 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Except in Baltimore they’ve been saying that for 7 years and the next year just brings more crap lol. So I get the frustration. Is there really a high probability next year is snowy?  Unless all you mean is “we probably don’t get completely shut out again” but if we get 7” next year (which used to be a dreg awful jump from the bridges result prior to this current period) is that really worth waiting for?  

All I’m saying is if we get 0 this year, how likely is it we will get 0 again next year? Maybe there’s a first for everything. 

Maybe your expectations are different, but I’d be content with 3”, let alone 7”

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The weird thing though is the eps longwave pattern is even better than the gefs.  It’s just warm. I find that part very believable 

If we get that tall coupled PNA and EPO ridge, it will build homegrown cold. It’s just physics. No WAA off the PAC coupled with low sun angle and radiating snow cover. Question is how fast and then how long to transport it south. You can probably do some sort of back of the envelope calculation on this… My intuition is something like 4-8 days to regenerate at least normal if not BN temps in central Canada, then another 3-5 days for southward transport. So if that ridge does develop with a trough in the east, maybe 6-7 days at least before you can fully flush the mild air out?

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If we get that tall coupled PNA and EPO ridge, it will build homegrown cold. It’s just physics. No WAA off the PAC coupled with low sun angle and radiating snow cover. Question is how fast and then how long to transport it south. You can probably do some sort of back of the envelope calculation on this… My intuition is something like 4-8 days to regenerate at least normal if not BN temps in central Canada, then another 3-5 days for southward transport. So if that ridge does develop with a trough in the east, maybe 6-7 days at least before you can fully flush the mild air out?

Once we lose the mechanism for direct transport of Pacific air into our nearby source region, as well as into the Western US, I think we can get back to average temps pretty quickly. It will take a little time to get cold/dry cP air into a position where it can easily influence our weather and get involved when a storm approaches.

[North Balti Zen]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

All I’m saying is if we get 0 this year, how likely is it we will get 0 again next year? Maybe there’s a first for everything. 

Maybe your expectations are different, but I’d be content with 3”, let alone 7”

Seriously? I call bullshit. No way you are happy with 3 inches next year in an area that averages around 20.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Seriously? I call bullshit. No way you are happy with 3 inches next year in an area that averages around 20.

Feel free to call bullshit, but I mean it. Of course I’d love to get 20-40” but the stats and trends don’t lie. The 20” average is likely outdated, and I’ve been adjusting my expectations accordingly. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Feel free to call bullshit, but I mean it. Of course I’d love to get 20-40” but the stats and trends don’t lie. The 20” average is likely outdated, and I’ve been adjusting my expectations accordingly. 

I have adjusted my expectations down to zero for this year, if I get some snowfall I will be happy.  Year after year I can see the difficulty in getting snowfall in the Northern Mid Atlantic. Also, looking around it is just not here any longer. Ski resorts suffering in the NE, record warmth in many locations in the US  , across the pond it is very warm.   

Frustrating to say the least. I love tracking snow potential, but the ROI and heart break at times makes me grumpy, so I have learned to temper things and enjoy whatever the weather may bring.    

[frd]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The weird thing though is the eps longwave pattern is even better than the gefs.  It’s just warm. I find that part very believable 

The more snow cover that gets wipes away up North the worse for us as we head deeper into Jan. Maybe something out of the ordinary will occur that leads to a wintery March.  I don't have high hopes for that, but we will see.  

[Fozz]

This is just a really bad winter in the East. But it's been a great winter out west, with storm after storm burying the Rockies and the Sierra. Many, if not most of our great winters happen at their expense, where they have a massive ridge and end up snow-starved, so it seems this is one of those years where it is the other way around.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

16 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Seriously? I call bullshit. No way you are happy with 3 inches next year in an area that averages around 20.

I’d be happy to get a 3 inch storm where the snow actually sticks.  I moved to Takoma park in 2017 and we’ve only had two notable storms since then, each was probably in the 6-12 inch range and I didn’t even have to shovel my driveway either time.  Exposed to the sun and just melted off on its own.  

[Rvarookie]

Any 70s showing up in the long range? 50s aren’t cutting it after last week 

[Weather Will]

Looking at the 12Z models for late week….still a cold air issue, but ICON shifted SE with track compared to 0Z.