January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[CAPE]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Another solution 

Well we grasping at straws at this point lol. Still far enough out that the guidance could be in error with the timing of the phase and position/amplitude of the ridge.

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Well we grasping at straws at this point lol. Still far enough out that the guidance could be in error with the timing of the phase and position/amplitude of the ridge.

It will be buzzing in here again based on 06z, sliver of hope

[CAPE]

 6z GFS actually does do that to some extent. The ridge is broader/further east, the timing and character of the NS shortwave dropping down over the top is different, and the phase occurs later/further east

[CAPE]

I could see this ending up a nice snowstorm for the western highlands at least. For the lowlands the tendency for HP to slide off the coast will just enhance the SE flow off the ocean ahead of the approaching low. If the phase occurs later and a more clean transfer to a coastal low occurs, there could be some frozen associated with that even for the coastal plain. The 6z GFS sort of hints at that.

[yoda]

About a quarter to almost a third of the 06z GEFS members look interesting at a passing glance

[CAPE]

Progression of the longwave pattern continues to look more favorable beyond mid month on the ens means.

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Progression of the longwave pattern continues to look more favorable beyond mid month on the ens means.

Still a very Nino look. What a strange year. 

[DE2PA]

Massive rainstorm after massive rain storm eh? When do we start calling winter “Mud Season” ?

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I could see this ending up a nice snowstorm for the western highlands at least. For the lowlands the tendency for HP to slide off the coast will just enhance the SE flow off the ocean ahead of the approaching low. If the phase occurs later and a more clean transfer to a coastal low occurs, there could be some frozen associated with that even for the coastal plain. The 6z GFS sort of hints at that.

Our equation is nearly impossible because it’s just not cold enough. So we need a perfect 50:50 and a perfect track and a phase to pull in cold but not too soon because any southerly flow obliterates the airmass and not too late because the flow actually is suppressive and we need dynamic cooling and …ok you get the point. 

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Progression of the longwave pattern continues to look more favorable beyond mid month on the ens means.

That’s way better but I’d still be worried anything decently strong cuts in that look. 

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Still a very Nino look. What a strange year. 

Something vexes me. Over this now 7 year run of futility the one constant has been the problem a strong pacific jet has caused.  But that’s now been a constant for 7 years through 4 Nina’s, 2 neutral and 1 Nino. And we’ve seen it cause the same problem in opposite pac longwave patterns. If we have a Nina like ridge the screaming jet goes over the top and digs a trough to Mexico on the west coast pumping a huge SE ridge infused with pac puke.  If we have a Nino like trough the jet goes under and blasts sub tropical pac puke straight across the whole continent.  The issue is according to research I’ve seen referenced the enhanced jet isn’t related to enso it’s a result of the expanding Hadley cell and might be permanent. If so…what are we even looking for?  We’re failing in opposite ways because of the same underlying problem and I don’t see that going away no matter what longwave configuration we get.  I mean ya once in a blue moon we will luck into the super rare full latitude epo pna ridge combo but the other 90% of the time what’s the answer? 

[dailylurker]

33 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

Massive rainstorm after massive rain storm eh? When do we start calling winter “Mud Season” ?

It's always been mud season. Now the mud just doesn't hardly ever freeze or get covered in snow. 

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Our equation is nearly impossible because it’s just not cold enough. So we need a perfect 50:50 and a perfect track and a phase to pull in cold but not too soon because any southerly flow obliterates the airmass and not too late because the flow actually is suppressive and we need dynamic cooling and …ok you get the point. 

That’s way better but I’d still be worried anything decently strong cuts in that look. 

Something vexes me. Over this now 7 year run of futility the one constant has been the problem a strong pacific jet has caused.  But that’s now been a constant for 7 years through 4 Nina’s, 2 neutral and 1 Nino. And we’ve seen it cause the same problem in opposite pac longwave patterns. If we have a Nina like ridge the screaming jet goes over the top and digs a trough to Mexico on the west coast pumping a huge SE ridge infused with pac puke.  If we have a Nino like trough the jet goes under and blasts sub tropical pac puke straight across the whole continent.  The issue is according to research I’ve seen referenced the enhanced jet isn’t related to enso it’s a result of the expanding Hadley cell and might be permanent. If so…what are we even looking for?  We’re failing in opposite ways because of the same underlying problem and I don’t see that going away no matter what longwave configuration we get.  I mean ya once in a blue moon we will luck into the super rare full latitude epo pna ridge combo but the other 90% of the time what’s the answer? 

Probably modify expectations or move to a place that has a consistent mechanism for snow, even in milder patterns.

[Superstorm]

Probably modify expectations or move to a place that has a consistent mechanism for snow, even in milder patterns.

So that is the Lake Region or Sierra mountains.


.

[CAPE]

Since the Pacific flow regime predominates with embedded ARs, a place like Truckee would be pretty good for consistent snow.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z CFS likes the late January/early February period.

[cbmclean]

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

what’s the answer? 

Hoping their wrong?

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Progression of the longwave pattern continues to look more favorable beyond mid month on the ens means.

Can’t wait to track another storm that looks suppressed and then cuts as soon as we get inside day 7.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Can’t wait to track another storm that looks suppressed and then cuts as soon as we get inside day 7.

You should change your name to AintSnowenOutThere

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

You should change your name to AintSnowenOutThere

I like it, maybe that’s the reverse psychology we need. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Since the Pacific flow regime predominates with embedded ARs, a place like Truckee would be pretty good for consistent snow.

lol I don't need 200" a season.  The climate up here until recently was just fine... actually if you go back prior to 2010 those close to 100" seasons were unheard of or at least super rare.  But getting below 20" was also super rare.  There was way less variance up here than DC, 95% of winters were between 20" and 60" with a mean around 39 and a median around 35.  Very rarely, like 1 in 20 years there was a season above or below that.  But recently suddenly we've had 2 seasons way way over that range and because of that the mean has actually gone up a bit...but we are also getting way more ratters even up here where it barely snows that much.  I would much prefer getting a consistent 30" most seasons than this 100" every 10 years and crap in between nonsense.   

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z CFS likes the late January/early February period.

For no reason other than a weenie gut feeling (no doubt influenced in part by 'nac and our history of snows AFTER the 15th) I still believe in that late Jan/early Feb period. It may take about that long (or maybe a week before) to get some kind of favorable change enough to get a window.

[Maestrobjwa]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

lol I don't need 200" a season.  The climate up here until recently was just fine... actually if you go back prior to 2010 those close to 100" seasons were unheard of or at least super rare.  But getting below 20" was also super rare.  There was way less variance up here than DC, 95% of winters were between 20" and 60" with a mean around 39 and a median around 35.  Very rarely, like 1 in 20 years there was a season above or below that.  But recently suddenly we've had 2 seasons way way over that range and because of that the mean has actually gone up a bit...but we are also getting way more ratters even up here where it barely snows that much.  I would much prefer getting a consistent 30" most seasons than this 100" every 10 years and crap in between nonsense.   

Ya know, if it weren't for a wonderful teacher I had in middle and high school with that same name, the name Hadley would instantly draw my winter ire. I've heard you guys talk about them, and while I don't quite understand the mechanisms and such (and quite frankly I don't think I want to) I know enough to know that I don't like that thing, lol Hey anybody got a picture of one I can put on a punching bag I don't own? 

[Heisy]

Biggest difference with GFS is it continues to close off a tpv in 50/50 land vs euro which basically has nothing




.

[Chris78]

Not a bad look. If we actually had some cold air in place we could atleast get a thump before a changeover.

[psuhoffman]

It's probably worth noting when we're looking at systems that are 6-10 days away...that the GFS just went from a low off Savannah to over Buffalo in the last 24 hours for a storm at day 4.  

For the record we wanted this change... we want that system further north to have more interaction with the NS and enhance the return flow behind it and confluence in the northeast.  But those positive changes have been most offset by other issues cropping up in other places...more phasing, and the overall air mass has trended warming...not further north, the boundary is actually trending south some...but if the entire airmass trends a couple degrees warming it doesn't matter since its so marginal to begin with and any strong wave will have enough southerly flow ahead of it to easily obliterate an airmass that's barely cold enough to begin with.  We will either need an absolutely dead perfect combination of everything and get CCB'd to death with dynamic cooling or we would have needed a weaker wave that takes a perfect track.  

But just interesting to note the major changes happening at day 3-4 and keep that in mind when over analyzing details of longer lead stuff.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Not a bad look. If we actually had some cold air in place we could atleast get a thump before a changeover.

Not a bad look???  lol its beautiful, I'm gonna throw a virtual rock at the first person that complains about the high.  That is a damn classic setup for a snowstorm its just not cold enough.  If there was just a normal airmass in place for mid January this would be a snowstorm without us having to sweat all these details.  The details would simply determine if its 3" or 8" or maybe even more.  

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Biggest difference with GFS is it continues to close off a tpv in 50/50 land vs euro which basically has nothing




.

They actually aren't THAT far apart...the features are both there on the euro but the NS feature is weaker and a little further north because it didnt phase with the mid latitude wave like the GFS does.  But that kind of thing often isn't resolved at long lead times.  

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Not a bad look???  lol its beautiful, I'm gonna throw a virtual rock at the first person that complains about the high.  That is a damn classic setup for a snowstorm its just not cold enough.  If there was just a normal airmass in place for mid January this would be a snowstorm without us having to sweat all these details.  The details would simply determine if its 3" or 8" or maybe even more.  

IF and it’s a big if this year, the models continue to advertise a 1042 HP parked in that area as we draw closer, can we think that it may be under-doing the strength of cad etc..? Or do the mid levels cook because of the primary if taken at face value? 

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not a bad look???  lol its beautiful, I'm gonna throw a virtual rock at the first person that complains about the high.  That is a damn classic setup for a snowstorm its just not cold enough.  If there was just a normal airmass in place for mid January this would be a snowstorm without us having to sweat all these details.  The details would simply determine if its 3" or 8" or maybe even more.  

Yep. Its kind of sad we can't get some snow out of that look in Mid. January. 

How many looks like that do we get In a  winter lol?

[LP08]

Problem now too is the NS wave that phases with the ULL way too soon and yanks the surface to Cleveland before transfer.  

[Weather Will]

I don’t know, still think track is key.  We don’t get snows with primary dying in Northern Ohio and secondary forming over DC…