January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[Interstate]

Pretty Warm Out there

[WxUSAF]

EPS playing follow the leader, at least in part. Whelp…12z started so well. 

[Maestrobjwa]

I still don't think we leave this month without measurable snow. Have no clue about next weekend, but...I don't know, a late Jan surprise feels like it's still on the table for some reason, lol (I may have smoked too much 'nac though) But IF we get any favorable trend in the pattern, end of month may be the time it would take from now to get something a little better.

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

How many times will variations of "lack of cold air is the problem" need to be said before the reality finally sets in? 

Maybe it’s a lack of cold air?  Just spitballing here.

[LP08]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS playing follow the leader, at least in part. Whelp…12z started so well. 

Pretty major shift for an ensemble this far out.  Crazy how the GFS improves and the EURO completely flipped the other way.

[Weather Will]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS playing follow the leader, at least in part. Whelp…12z started so well. 

Look at the Atlantic between EPS and GEFS.  The track of the lies us very similar….sorry this is beyond me, models are all over the place.

[brooklynwx99]

thank you Euro, very cool!

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Note very small shifts in the pacific, but the atlantic is totally different from run to run. It has no idea how to handle the atlantic.

50/50 failed us with the December threat. See no reason for this evolution to differ. 

[87storms]

Sounds like the Euro said you will accept your brief flurries you’ve seen so far this season and you will like it.

The best part is March is only 8 weeks away.

A nice HP placement is ideal, but it’s hard for those long, clear nights in Canada to build deep cold in such a variable pattern.  With that said, I wouldn’t object to a heavy, wet snow.  Those do look pretty cool the next day.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS today v. yesterday.  This is not the first time it has done this….

[Ralph Wiggum]

It is mind boggling to watch the snow line recede across the Eastern US as we approach peak climo

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Pretty major shift for an ensemble this far out.  Crazy how the GFS improves and the EURO completely flipped the other way.

Almost guarantee it's the GFS playing follow the Euro, but just a couple runs behind.

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Pretty major shift for an ensemble this far out.  Crazy how the GFS improves and the EURO completely flipped the other way.

Sweet Jesus. Beating a dead horse here, but 12z eps has a 999mb low off Ocean City on the mean next Saturday! Damn perfection! Warm rain. 

[CAPE]

We ready for a reload?

I might get loaded.

 

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Sweet Jesus. Beating a dead horse here, but 12z eps has a 999mb low off Ocean City on the mean next Saturday! Damn perfection! Warm rain. 

Good lord. Show me this image and tell me it’s mid-January with no other context and I’d get a @stormtrackeresque poke-your-own-eye-out pants tent.

[Maestrobjwa]

Dang...everybody all up and down the eastern forums is complaining about the same stuff. We've all been a miserable bunch, lol

[Steve25]

22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Maybe it’s a lack of cold air?  Just spitballing here.

My point was that it keeps being repeated yet this thread continues to hype up this potential. It just doesn't make sense. We have a hard enough time getting substantial snows in general, then you add in that we're in a La Nina, and that this potential has no true cold air to tap into and the fact that there's any buzz in here just makes little sense. 

[DarkSharkWX]

Just now, Steve25 said:

My point was that it keeps being repeated yet this thread continues to hype up this potential. It just doesn't make sense. We have a hard enough time getting substantial snows in general, then you add in that we're in a La Nina, and that this potential has no true cold air to tap into and the fact that there's any buzz in here just makes little sense. 

-ENSO/la nina is not the reason for this, we are in a very nino pattern right now with overextended jet... thats a nino problem not a nina lmao

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good lord. Show me this image and tell me it’s mid-January with no other context and I’d get a @stormtrackeresque poke-your-own-eye-out pants tent.

Not tucked enough

[WesternFringe]

4 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

My point was that it keeps being repeated yet this thread continues to hype up this potential. It just doesn't make sense. We have a hard enough time getting substantial snows in general, then you add in that we're in a La Nina, and that this potential has no true cold air to tap into and the fact that there's any buzz in here just makes little sense. 

If you are certain of what is going to happen, then why are you here?

eta:  I think even though we all know the air mass isn't ideal, the CMC, GFS, and Euro have all shown us glimpses of how we can still get it done.  That's why the thread gets hyped.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, H2O said:

Not tucked enough

Now see what gets me is that there was a storm last year (and another even more so the previous year) that was cold enough but not tucked. Of course, lol

[dallen7908]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS today v. yesterday.  This is not the first time it has done this….

24-hours later at 12 UT next Saturday, the difference in low locations between the two simulations is less stark as most of the lows have jumped to the coast (re-developed).  Unfortunately, yesterday's cluster at 12 UT on Saturday was off of the Carolina coast while today's cluster is off of the Virginia coast.  We could know more soon as ensembles skill improves dramatically between day 8 and day 5. 

[Solution Man]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good lord. Show me this image and tell me it’s mid-January with no other context and I’d get a @stormtrackeresque poke-your-own-eye-out pants tent.

Maybe there’s no cold air

[DarkSharkWX]

while its still 8 days out and we won't know until the 11th energy gets sampled and sent into guidancde, i would still lower expectations just so that if samplation proves to be bad, you won't be as disappointed. on the bright side, at least GFS/CMC and their ensembles improved today. winter is not over after this storm too, and in the shorter range we have the 8th-9th threat that snuck up on us for the potential to be some of the region's first measurable snow

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good lord. Show me this image and tell me it’s mid-January with no other context and I’d get a @stormtrackeresque poke-your-own-eye-out pants tent.

But the problem is the high pressure is only wrapped all around the top and not infused into the system like some winter storm turducken.  

[CAPE]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Maybe there’s no cold air

I am beginning to think a highly amplified but progressive pattern with much of NA devoid of cold is not the best way for us to get snow. More timing and luck than usual required.

 

[Solution Man]

Just now, CAPE said:

I am beginning to think a highly amplified but progressive pattern with much of NA devoid of cold is not the best way for us to get snow. More timing and luck than usual required.

 

True That

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But the problem is the high pressure is only wrapped all around the top and not infused into the system like some winter storm turducken.  

These images are bad for mental health. Like literally how are some of you taking this in stride and not having it mess up your entireday? Smh I ain't gotten a thing done

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

These images are bad for mental health. Like literally how are some of you taking this in stride and not having it mess up your entireday? Smh I ain't gotten a thing done

Would it make things better if I threw a fit and jumped off the roof? 

[psuhoffman]

wait don't answer that