AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 18z gfs 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:02 PM, AtlanticWx said: 18z gfs Expand Who cares about January 9th? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:03 PM, PCT_ATC said: Who cares about January 9th? Expand i'm just posting a map lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:03 PM, AtlanticWx said: i'm just posting a map lmao Expand Got snow in it….post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 9:55 PM, Interstate said: Where is Will with his % maps. Lol Expand Please no 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 9:48 PM, Terpeast said: If this lines up with the MJO 8-1 as depicted for this time frame, we could probably get another wave with the right pieces in place, including cold air. Maybe the first week of February. Expand Fwiw but the Euro weeklies have negative 2m temp anomalies spreading across much of the lower 48 towards mid Feb as the mean trough shifts into the central US, with a -EPO and neutral/slightly +PNA. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:02 PM, AtlanticWx said: 18z gfs Expand 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Looks like 18z GFS gonna miss the tpv phase with the 11th wave…. However there is better confluence vs 12z and main wave isn’t as strong so maybe it still works out? We’ll see…Here are differences in Atlantic vs Euro and 18z GFS… still lots to sort out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:15 PM, Heisy said: Looks like 18z GFS gonna miss the tpv phase with the 11th wave…. However there is better confluence vs 12z and main wave isn’t as strong so maybe it still works out? We’ll see… Here are differences in Atlantic vs Euro and 18z GFS… still lots to sort out . Expand Man, if I was high right now and stared at this.... 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Looks better up top, but still not Euro-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeonon Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:16 PM, stormtracker said: Man, if I was high right now and stared at this....I’ve been staring at it for 10 mins . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:03 PM, PCT_ATC said: Who cares about January 9th? Expand NAM shows nothing for 1/9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 GFS has less confluence in the northeast than it did at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:16 PM, stormtracker said: Man, if I was high right now and stared at this.... Expand Well the op GFS HAS been high, so it would be a high looking at a high looking for a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:22 PM, WxUSAF said: GFS has less confluence in the northeast than it did at 12z Expand Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:23 PM, stormtracker said: Next Expand Euro/eps/gefs vs Gfs/cmc... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:22 PM, WxUSAF said: GFS has less confluence in the northeast than it did at 12z Expand I actually think it looks a bit better. a TPV lobe sits over SE Canada and acts to lower heights over the NE, so the HP is stronger than 12z there also isn't any phasing with the northern stream. let's see where it goes. not going to be the ECMWF, but it's still workable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 either way, the ensembles are king at this range. just seeing a vigorous SLP and strong HP in SE Canada is half the battle. also, the GFS OP blows. it has been performing horribly this winter 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:23 PM, stormtracker said: Next Expand As @brooklynwx99 said, a couple things a little better, couple little worse. At D9 it’s basically a hold on it’s crappy solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 The features at 84 hrs we are looking for upstream to work into our 50/50 look decent at least. GFS was pretty close to a good solution wrt to that but just mistimed the phase offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 6:59 PM, stormtracker said: Expand Didn't someone say they wanted to move to North Carolina not too long-ago LOL! Come on now we know better we all know where this will be in 4-5 days. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:24 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Euro/eps/gefs vs Gfs/cmc... Expand I will put $ on Euro/eps/gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:35 PM, Kevin Reilly said: I will put $ on Euro/eps/gefs Expand That sums it up. Nice post… tough combo to beat at D9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 gefs looks better this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:08 PM, stormtracker said: Please no Expand I’m more conservative this year and very busy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:35 PM, Kevin Reilly said: I will put $ on Euro/eps/gefs Expand How much we talking? And what are we using to measure verification? I know a guy that might be interested. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:51 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: How much we talking? And what are we using to measure verification? I know a guy that might be interested. Expand Hmmm my first initial thought was to keep it conservative like $20.00 lol. I am sure if we did this especially this year we would fail knowing the track record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:18 PM, Xeonon said: I’ve been staring at it for 10 mins . Expand Hey Xerox pass the blunt this way 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 GEFS actually has stronger confluence. looks great 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 1/5/2023 at 10:59 PM, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS actually has stronger confluence. looks great Expand Is stronger confluence a good thing tho? (thinking about suppression) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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