January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Double close low at H5, 186hr

talk to us...come on

 

[Paleocene]

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

talk to us...come on

 

I can't yet see the outcome, but it honestly looks good so far.  But again, let's wait

[MDScienceTeacher]

I really dont understand how there is 0 cold air around on the GFS with that big hp and the bombing low to our NE.  lets see what the euro does in the temps department.

[DarkSharkWX]

Def gonna be an interesting run

[AtlanticWx]

things you like to see

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I really dont understand how there is 0 cold air around on the GFS with that big hp and the bombing low to our NE.  lets see what the euro does in the temps department.

Euro has cold in place.

[Solution Man]

Just now, DarkSharkWX said:

Def gonna be an interesting run

THIS

[DE2PA]

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

talk to us...come on

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Sounds like the models are in chaos to me which is better than nailing down a Cutter to Hudson bay all solutions are on the table LOL but that is the reality.  Wiggum rule though could it be?

This year so far is an anomaly to the Wiggum Rule. We have hit 60 here a few times and no flakes within 5 days. Hoping that changes but in most years this theory works without fail. This year is just different. I don't have anything scientific to support this but watch us get hit hard in March. Just been strange so far....perfect setups failing, record cold around Christmas, record -AO. Something odd is in play here this year. Dont punt.

[stormtracker]

light Snow up to the beltway at 216 hour

uppers are cold, sfc is below 32 from the bay westward

[DarkSharkWX]

Here we go!

[stormtracker]

snow over the entire area at 228, temps are fine.  Doesn't look particularly heavy, but it's definitely something that will calm nerves here

[Ralph Wiggum]

JMA isn't far off from the Euro. Plenty cold. Might squash tho...trof look positive and want to keeps progressing. 

[stormtracker]

She's a scrapper, but it's....something.  Heavier (comma head) snow moves in at 240.  Dammit it cut off.  But again, nothing huge, but....something. Should have some amounts up to 

 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

She's a scrapper, but it's....something.  Heavier (comma head) snow moves in at 240.  Dammit it cut off.  But again, nothing huge, but....something

Still further north than 0z...I'll definitely take it!!!

[WxUSAF]

@psuhoffman fringed on a D9 coastal? Oh yeah, this is the one 

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

She's a scrapper, but it's....something.  Heavier (comma head) snow moves in at 240.  Dammit it cut off.  But again, nothing huge, but....something

Nothing like a 240 op run to calm the nerves. The low crawls, it takes 24 hours to get from GA to off of NC

 

[Twilly05]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's to the point where it can't even be broadly trusted at 180 hrs...turrible, just turrible. Like it's not even the usual LR op run variations within the same idea--just not having a clue altogether, lol

Ok Sir Charles

[stormtracker]

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman fringed on a D9 coastal? Oh yeah, this is the one 

that fringed humor got  a lot less funny when I moved up this way and we actually started getting...fringed. 

[DarkSharkWX]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Honestly good spot to be in rn. Def better than last run, and EPS will probably remain with a strong signal.

[LeesburgWx]

Hide that map from Ji

[jayyy]

For that December cutter, the GFS held onto the S/E solutions and was the last to cave.
This time, it's the other way around. Euro is still S/E while CMC and GFS went cutter (at least the Op runs).

Most of the time, the OP GFS will hang onto the SE Solution longer than others. December was the perfect example. We’re still too far out to know where the GFS will land on next weeks threat. The GEFS doesn’t match the OP whatsoever, which to me means the GFS will waffle a bunch more before it hones in on a general solution around D5. This is all pretty standard given the range we’re in right now (D9-d10)

My guess is the GFS waffles back toward a more SE solution over the next few days, which is it’s typical bias in a progressive pattern. It looks completely out to lunch given the wide array of outcomes it’s spitting out from run to run.

At this range, I’m looking at the GEFS and EPS. Using the OP GFS is a fools errand 10 days out. I’ll start looking at the OP Euro in the D5-D7 range. Until then, OP runs are meaningless to me. Sticking to this general schematic leaves me heartbroken a lot less frequently than most weenies…

Days 8-10 (GEFS / EPS ensembles)
Days 5-7 (euro, with a lean on the CMC/Ukie for similarity confirmation)
Days 3-5 (GFS / Euro - less euro as we approach D3)
Days 1-3 (NAM / GFS - outcome typically splits the two in some way shape or form)

It’s not perfect, but it utilizes the strengths of each model @ a given range, while leaning on a few other models to see if they show similar evolutions at H5/500 for some semblance of confirmation that the outcome could have some weight to it. A lot of folks look for the coldest / snowiest solution at any given range, which is a method that’s equivalent to begging for heartbreak.

Any model out on its own island, especially in the long range, should be a red flag. Details aren’t very important at range. Yesterday, we had several models showing the general idea of a storm in the 175+hr range - which is enough to peak my interest. I don’t truly get excited for a potential threat until we enter the D5’ish range. If the OP Euro at D5 generally shows what the EPS/GEFS combo was showing prior, that’s typically a pretty solid signal that something is on the horizon.

For me personally, anything before that is simply noise and the models doing their jobs - which is to calculate all possible outcomes. That’s why the GFS jumps from a multi foot blizzard to a warm / rainy cutter every damn time from the D10 range. It’s simply establishing the envelop of outcomes.


.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Hide that map from Ji

even he should know that's a money look at 9-10 days out on op run.  sure it shows JYO getting 1-2 and RIC getting 12-24...but its all relative comedy at this point

[CAPE]

1-2 ft for central NC to Central VA lol.

[jaydreb]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Looks good for Short Pump. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Most of the time, the OP GFS will hang onto the SE Solution longer than others. December was the perfect example. We’re still too far out to know where the GFS will land on next weeks threat. The GEFS doesn’t match the OP whatsoever, which to me means the GFS will waffle a bunch more before it hones in on a general solution around D5. This is all pretty standard given the range we’re in right now (D9-d10)

My guess is the GFS waffles back toward a more SE solution over the next few days, which is it’s typical bias in a progressive pattern. It looks completely out to lunch given the wide array of outcomes it’s spitting out from run to run.

At this range, I’m looking at the GEFS and EPS. Using the OP GFS is a fools errand 10 days out. I’ll start looking at the OP Euro in the D5-D7 range. Until then, OP runs are meaningless to me. Sticking to this general schematic leaves me heartbroken a lot less frequently than most weenies…

Days 8-10 (GEFS / EPS ensembles)
Days 5-7 (euro, with a lean on the CMC/Ukie for similarity confirmation)
Days 3-5 (GFS / Euro - less euro as we approach D3)
Days 1-3 (NAM / GFS - outcome typically splits the two in some way shape or form)

It’s not perfect, but it utilizes the strengths of each model @ a given range, while leaning on a few other models to see if they show similar evolutions at H5/500 for some semblance of confirmation that the outcome could have some weight to it. A lot of folks look for the coldest / snowiest solution at any given range, which is a method that’s equivalent to begging for heartbreak.

Any model out on its own island, especially in the long range, should be a red flag. Details aren’t very important at range. Yesterday, we had several models showing the general idea of a storm in the 175+hr range - which is enough to peak my interest. I don’t truly get excited for a potential threat until we enter the D5’ish range. If the OP Euro at D5 generally shows what the EPS/GEFS combo was showing prior, that’s typically a pretty solid signal that something is on the horizon.

For me personally, anything before that is simply noise and the models doing their jobs - which is to calculate all possible outcomes. That’s why the GFS jumps from a multi foot blizzard to a warm / rainy cutter every damn time from the D10 range. It’s simply establishing the envelop of outcomes.


.

I can't even take this serious if you aren't using the CRAS or NAVGEM.

Kidding aside, good post.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

even he should know that's a money look at 9-10 days out on op run.  sure it shows JYO getting 1-2 and RIC getting 12-24...but its all relative comedy at this point

We should be getting an ALEET ALEET soon.

[CAPE]

We know where Bob Chill will be if this is close to reality.