CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 At least Ji is getting his digital blue fix. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, frd said: MC forcing is pretty much the norm for a Nina. Not sure it is that much of a game changer if we have other indices in our favor. Latest ens guidance indicates the AO and NAO will be neutral/trending slightly negative beyond mid month. Imo it's up in the air what transpires on the Pac side going forward. Yeah we will warm again for a time after whatever happens mid month, but the GEFS in the LR significantly weakens the trough along the west coast and is suggesting a ridge may develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some 30,000 foot thought this morning Good, the high latitude pattern (which I’m including the prevalence of a Hudson high here) is good enough we probably will continue to have hope for these random systems to cut across and if we get lucky time up with cold. It’s a long shot pattern but not completely hopeless like it would be if we had a raging positive AO like 2020. Bad, the PNA spike, if we can even call it that, is super temporary. It leads to one shot and then we go back to a very warm look. The hope that the pacific was going to quickly morph to a more favorable look is fading. I really hope we hit on one of these long shot threats the next 10 Days or it could get insufferable in here if it’s Jan 20th with no measurable snow and nothing but torch on the horizon. Not just in here...but the entire northeast part of the forum not named central PA or upstate NY, lol All the I-95 forums are getting the same way...so we gon' have to get something! Ya know, this is like a test to see who can stay above it all even when it looks the worst. I mean this is when ya gotta have an escape hatch so it doesn't swallow you up. It could be that placing the focus on more important things is the way out...(easier said than done, I know, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, frd said: Well the old 'nac is callin' for a snowstorm at the end of the month...and the last time we got as warm as Monday (2000) we got one late Jan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 GFS about to cut like a mofo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 GGEM looks like 0z euro for the Sunday white rain threat. Most of the precip slides through VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not just in here...but the entire northeast part of the forum not named central PA or upstate NY, lol All the I-95 forums are getting the same way...so we gon' have to get something! Ya know, this is like a test to see who can stay above it all even when it looks the worst. I mean this is when ya gotta have an escape hatch so it doesn't swallow you up. It could be that placing the focus on more important things is the way out...(easier said than done, I know, lol) I am more of a glass half full guy as I get older. I enjoy tracking interesting weather, and I find the physics to be very cool, but it's just not a game changer for me if I don't get snow. It is not some life changing deal lol. Weather does what it does. If I really need a fix, I have been known to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS about to cut like a mofo 1040 mb high in position f-cking A with a monster 50-50 and gfs is going to take this thing to Hudson Bay. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS about to cut like a mofo It's to the point where it can't even be broadly trusted at 180 hrs...turrible, just turrible. Like it's not even the usual LR op run variations within the same idea--just not having a clue altogether, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Oh jeez, GGEM on the cutter parade too all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Oh jeez, GGEM on the cutter parade too all of a sudden. It’s been the same thing all season, idk why anyone expects anything else lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS about to cut like a mofo This was wrong, but way too warm and wrapped up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 The low doesn't actually cut north, it gets squashed but its all rain for us anyway. garbage 204 hour map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Hell of a rainstorm on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Oh jeez, GGEM on the cutter parade too all of a sudden. Looks like it was the difference in the 50/50 that did it on both that and the GFS. There one run, gone the next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Hell of a rainstorm on the GFS. at least it's warm rain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: It’s been the same thing all season, idk why anyone expects anything else lol. It 100% fits the seasonal trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hell of a rainstorm on the GFS. When's our next window after this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 but its a 10 day op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: at least it's warm rain! Chase to NC/GA mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: When's our next window after this? If I had to bet...late January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 We can't even do cold rain anymore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: When's our next window after this? Probably 11-12 months 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Looks like it was the difference in the 50/50 that did it on both that and the GFS. There one run, gone the next! go back to the piano dude. @psuhoffman Global Warming Alert. This is heavy rain in Mid January 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: When's our next window after this? Jan 2024 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 1040 mb high in position f-cking A with a monster 50-50 and gfs is going to take this thing to Hudson Bay. That's how you know the deck is stacked against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: go back to the piano dude. @psuhoffman Global Warming Alert. This is heavy rain in Mid January Can you imagine if we had a 50/50 low. The one that disappeared over night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: When's our next window after this? December 5, 2023. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12z CMC will cut too, the tpv phase with the 11th wave was our 50/50, without it there’s nothing stopping it. Watch the Canadian go from Myrtle Beach to Chicago in one run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 WB 12Z GFS….model still figuring out track… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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