BristowWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I don't think it's what we wanted. It definitely moved towards the euro and cmc with dampening out the lead wave and Amping up the next one by the time cold air is moving out. I’m after first flakes. Works for me even though it’s pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 18z GFS is close to turning the 11th shortwave into an event. It changed the upper air pattern over SE Canada more favorable to lock in HP. It sure if the ULL will cut off or come up the coast though. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Gfs looks likes it’s phasing in the NS at 174 this run. Probably too far south but it looked close at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I don't think it's what we wanted. It definitely moved towards the euro and cmc with dampening out the lead wave and Amping up the next one by the time cold air is moving out. Verbatim the GFS has ~.2-.3" QPF falling over the course of 12 hours (mostly overnight) with temps in the mid 30s. As shown that could provide the first flakes/coating for most of the central subforum area, but as you said it seems to be trending weaker as that second wave comes in stronger and much too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Verbatim the GFS has ~.2-.3" QPF falling over the course of 12 hours (mostly overnight) with temps in the mid 30s. As shown that could provide the first flakes/coating for most of the central subforum area, but as you said it seems to be trending weaker as that second wave comes in stronger and much too late. As is I think We would all take. I was just pointing out it moved towards the euro/cmc of more emphasis on the Sunday/Monday deal which by that time is probably too warm.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Winter has been largely absent in Europe as well. This season is just evaporating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Looks like 2 or 3 chances starting this weekend. Can we maybe hit on 1 of them? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Looks like 2 or 3 chances starting this weekend. Can we maybe hit on 1 of them? So, a 33% Chance. So, you are telling me we have a chance!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s a very wet and non typical Nina so models can’t get things right except for cutters. Analogs from back on 12/24 showed the two week mild up with a cool/cold down two weeks later. That starts Thursday. Cold air is only thing that matters for DC, without it the placement and tracks of the lows mean zero and right now models cannot predict low pressure movements anyway. Low on the coast for Saturday morning is now high in the same place instead in a six hour span. Just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 27 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Looks like 2 or 3 chances starting this weekend. Can we maybe hit on 1 of them? The initial wave this weekend looks like it's going to be squeezed underneath the ridge breaking over the top- the vorticity gets stretched out into an elongated ribbon as it moves east. Limited potential with that one imo. The second one for early next week has a bit more potential for coastal development depending on the timing of that NS vort digging down, shown below on the 18z GFS. A little too 'behind' this run. Later in the week, we shall see, but the general evolution on the 18z run is intriguing with the previous wave acting as a 50-50 low. Looks cold enough, but just a bit suppressed. We got some chances. Timing and exact location of the waves is super critical with progressive flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 25 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Looks like 2 or 3 chances starting this weekend. Can we maybe hit on 1 of them? We usually need that many for one to work out - it’d be kind of funny if we score on one in what was a period that looked sub optimal with the pacific wave train crashing into CA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 18z GEFS a little better with our hopeful 13/14th shortwave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Wow, very similar to EPS, can’t ask for a ton more at this range for a coastal signal. I’m hoping the 11th wave turns into a solid 50/50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Wow, very similar to EPS, can’t ask for a ton more at this range for a coastal signal. I’m hoping the 11th wave turns into a solid 50/50 . I thought your user ID read hennessy. cheers anyway 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Wow, very similar to EPS, can’t ask for a ton more at this range for a coastal signal. I’m hoping the 11th wave turns into a solid 50/50 . yeah that would be classic for northeast/mid-atlantic looks like some members are gonna have it become a 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Looks like 2 or 3 chances starting this weekend. Can we maybe hit on 1 of them?Probably not 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Looks like 2 or 3 chances starting this weekend. Can we maybe hit on 1 of them? Probably not Weather gambling, man! It's the next big thing after all the sports betting stuff! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Weather gambling, man! It's the next big thing after all the sports betting stuff! What old movie/show is that? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 26 minutes ago, Heisy said: Wow, very similar to EPS, can’t ask for a ton more at this range for a coastal signal. I’m hoping the 11th wave turns into a solid 50/50 . Oh that ever elusive 50/50! When's the last time we had one that worked? 2016? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GFS skill scores having a recent decline. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 31 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Looks like 2 or 3 chances starting this weekend. Can we maybe hit on 1 of them? Probably not Can't disagree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 33 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Looks like 2 or 3 chances starting this weekend. Can we maybe hit on 1 of them? Probably not First one gets shredded. Second one is too warm 3rd is a bomb that misses us but crushes the Northeast. Sound about right? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: So, a 33% Chance. So, you are telling me we have a chance!! So, the more chances we have the lower our chance of getting snow? Got it! Lol Agree the middle of the month looks the most promising at this point, but I am not sleeping on the first two. At least we finally have some tracking to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 27 minutes ago, frd said: GFS skill scores having a recent decline. And it’s the only one showing snow this weekend so the graph checks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, nj2va said: We usually need that many for one to work out - it’d be kind of funny if we score on one in what was a period that looked sub optimal with the pacific wave train crashing into CA. You mean the "atmospheric river"? That is what the media has dubbed the stj aimed at CA. Bomb cyclones, atmospheric rivers, polar vortex mania....no wonder people don't want to watch the mews anymore. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: What old movie/show is that? Lol I know your younger but really? Eta: Casablanca...Bogey....a classic. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Pacific firehose is the correct term Ralph 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: First one gets shredded. Second one is too warm 3rd is a bomb that misses us but crushes the Northeast. Sound about right? Thanks CentralVaNATS! We appreciate you. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know your younger but really? Eta: Casablanca...Bogey....a classic. I know, I know...I'm bit movie illiterate, haha To give you an idea of how bad it is...I only just watched "It's A Wonderful Life" for the first time last week...lol I'm workin' on it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Winter has been largely absent in Europe as well. This season is just evaporating. The west needs the rain and snow. I am not sure how much it will help with the over population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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