IUsedToHateCold Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 28 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Might as well start a February Mid/Long Range thread at this point. January is cooked for the Mid-Atlantic. Forget about measurable snow. Nothing will pan out for this month. Heading for the Reaper. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk There are open rooms in the Panic Room. Hope to see you there…. Soon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 It’s a very wet and non typical Nina so models can’t get things right except for cutters. Analogs from back on 12/24 showed the two week mild up with a cool/cold down two weeks later. That starts Thursday. Cold air is only thing that matters for DC, without it the placement and tracks of the lows mean zero and right now models cannot predict low pressure movements anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 There are open rooms in the Panic Room. Hope to see you there…. SoonI have several spots reserved already Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: I have several spots reserved already Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 EPS so far…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Wow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 EPS Day 11...decent signal for a coastal track. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 50 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Might as well start a February Mid/Long Range thread at this point. January is cooked for the Mid-Atlantic. Forget about measurable snow. Nothing will pan out for this month.Heading for the Reaper. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk You certainly are. 3 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Pure speculation at this point, but these cutoff lows can be decent for you guys if they head east at the right latitude. They tend be slow moving so mid Atlantic/SE take advantage of any transient 50/50 first. Ensemble members show a big mix of direct hits, NE hits, interior hits etc, as expected at this range, but solid signal this far out . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: EPS Day 11...decent signal for a coastal track. Decent agreement with GEFS at range, though the low locations are fuzzier for it. Hoping this one stays trackable til the weekend to give us some 2023 hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Quite a strong signal for a coastal low on EPS considering it is more than 10 days out, imo best setup/chance we've had so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 18 minutes ago, Heisy said: EPS so far… . 15 minutes ago, Heisy said: Wow . Ok now I'm interested 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Euro and GGEM are keying on a different SW than the "threat" the other day. I didn't like the angle of the other threat, amplifying too far east, I've seen how that ends multiple times the last few years. This one has more space to work with and is amplifying far enough west for me to think it has a shot. In the end temps are more likely to be the problem here not track. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro and GGEM are keying on a different SW than the "threat" the other day. I didn't like the angle of the other threat, amplifying too far east, I've seen how that ends multiple times the last few years. This one has more space to work with and is amplifying far enough west for me to think it has a shot. In the end temps are more likely to be the problem here not track. Hopefully the MJO index will help with cold if forecast verifies w/ a move into 8/1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 CMC copied the Euro for Jan 9. Holding back precip until the (marginal) cold air leaves. Ergo, CMC/Euro must be correct I see posts about the day 11 threat, but... it's day 11. Give it another week and see if it still shows a trackable threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 the fact that this forum was ready to jump off ship yesterday and is excited today probably says a lot about how one day of model runs doesn’t define our winter no hate, just an observation lmao 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 you guys were asking for a Nino (as well as everyone in NYC) - here you go. this type of evolution is right out of the +ENSO handbook really potent shortwave moving across the CONUS coinciding with a +PNA spike and confluence over SE Canada 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 also note the strengthening of the HP up top. much more of a banana high look than yesterday, which would help overcome any marginal airmass issues with a strong SLP 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro and GGEM are keying on a different SW than the "threat" the other day. I didn't like the angle of the other threat, amplifying too far east, I've seen how that ends multiple times the last few years. This one has more space to work with and is amplifying far enough west for me to think it has a shot. In the end temps are more likely to be the problem here not track. even 2001-2002 gave us a 3-5 inch in storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Blue on blue Sounds like something you are intimately familiar with. My condolences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ji said: even 2001-2002 gave us a 3-5 inch in storm That’s the bar now? Rooting for a repeat of 2002. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s the bar now? Rooting for a repeat of 2002. Lol Only because of what happened the following year.. Gotta play the long game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s the bar now? Rooting for a repeat of 2002. Lol 3-5 is better than 0 right? So yea...01-02 bring it on. People forget Norfolk got a 13 inch storm a few weeks earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s the bar now? Rooting for a repeat of 2002. Lol Got to pass 01-02 before moving onto bigger and better things! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Our Snow chances be like 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 21 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Our Snow chances be like Pretty darn close…the backboard didn’t shatter…then it’s money 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 I’ll buy what the GFS is selling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 So there’s two possible waves in the LR. One around 11th and then the 13-15th which is what we saw at end of euro/cmc run today. I personally like our odds better for the latter. Since it is happy hour I’ll post the 12z JMA which developed the 11th shortwave into what would have been a big event lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I’ll buy what the GFS is selling Same. I’ll be down in Annapolis for a Navy Retirement for the weekend so keep pushing that snow down South. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I’ll buy what the GFS is selling I don't think it's what we wanted. It definitely moved towards the euro and cmc with dampening out the lead wave and Amping up the next one by the time cold air is moving out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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