Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 17 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I am more worried about low qpf. I am assuming a more amped, stronger storm and higher qpf will generate greater dynamic cooling. It's looking increasingly like explosive cyclogenesis will wait until well downstream. We need the inverted trough to break right, which... good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Trying to keep expectations to a min but damn it’s hard to ignore that IVT feature showing up on all modeling for Orange County. 6z Euro is a firehose pointed right into the county. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, snywx said: Trying to keep expectations to a min but damn it’s hard to ignore that IVT feature showing up on all modeling for Orange County. 6z Euro is a firehose pointed right into the county. Agree, it’s been steady for the last few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 21 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Boy, do i need the euro to verify here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Again, maxes decrease as it goes east of the Taconic spine and I end up with considerably less than a few miles west. I'm going to hope the models just don't realize that there's another elevation max east of the spine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 What will be the over/under elevation number that makes or breaks the big accumulations... It was 32.4 degrees for the whole storm yesterday, and I got 2 inches. (850ft in Carmel) .3 degrees lower would have probably yielded 6-7 inches This storm is like Forest's box of chocolates...you never know what youre gonna get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Backyard question for this week… how is MMU looking? I think most everyone here is way up north. Thank you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, DRVTS said: What will be the over/under elevation number that makes or breaks the big accumulations... It was 32.4 degrees for the whole storm yesterday, and I got 2 inches. (850ft in Carmel) .3 degrees lower would have probably yielded 6-7 inches This storm is like Forest's box of chocolates...you never know what youre gonna get 600-700’ is usually the magic number for these parts but the main concern should be the forecasted IVT / stationary band etc. Anyone on either side of that beast will be warm with drizzle. You can see on some guidance how CT is stuck between the IVT and the coastal low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 29 minutes ago, snywx said: 600-700’ is usually the magic number for these parts but the main concern should be the forecasted IVT / stationary band etc. Anyone on either side of that beast will be warm with drizzle. You can see on some guidance how CT is stuck between the IVT and the coastal low Good morning everyone. I needed a break from the hot thread read. I figured I’d come upstate for breather. Stay well all, as always …. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I would be OK with less snow on one level as my fear of power outages has gone up this morning considering the snow weight and wind combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I would be OK with less snow on one level as my fear of power outages has gone up this morning considering the snow weight and wind combined. On the bright side, at least the trees aren't leaved yet...Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Actually the trees are starting to leaf out. The one in my front yard looks like it usually does in mid April. This is the earliest in the 27 years I've been here! The last time was when that 17" paste storm took branches off it in 1997 and took out the power line to the house. It took 3 weeks to get that replaced 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, nycemt123 said: On the bright side, at least the trees aren't leaved yet... Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk my trees are already in a precarious position because of the heavy wet snow from yesterday (total of 8 inches, pics posted in the March 11th thread). I'm the farthest south and farthest west county under a winter storm warning now, south of I-80 in the Poconos. 8-12 inches of snow predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: Actually the trees are starting to leaf out. The one in my front yard looks like it usually does in mid April. This is the earliest in the 27 years I've been here! The last time was when that 17" paste storm took branches off it in 1997 and took out the power line to the house. It took 3 weeks to get that replaced earliest since 2002 right? That's the last time I remember that we greened up so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Hitman said: Boy, do i need the euro to verify here. in this case 13 is the lucky number here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: earliest since 2002 right? That's the last time I remember that we greened up so early. On LI maybe, I do remember it was warm early but the trees here didn't leaf out until after 4/1 and it didn't snow on leafed out trees. Even further upstate the willows are greening up, they looked great yesterday covered with 6-8" but there were lots of branches hanging down to the ground and that's without leaves on them just open buds and green, flexible branches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, gravitylover said: On LI maybe, I do remember it was warm early but the trees here didn't leaf out until after 4/1 and it didn't snow on leafed out trees. Even further upstate the willows are greening up, they looked great yesterday covered with 6-8" but there were lots of branches hanging down to the ground and that's without leaves on them just open buds and green, flexible branches. I see green stuff on my garage roof and the roofs on other people's garages and some homes....looks like green dust lol....is that pollen? I actually started seeing that in the last week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 On my house it's the moss on the roof getting bright green (a month early). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, gravitylover said: On my house it's the moss on the roof getting bright green (a month early). oh probably because mild + lots of moisture probably why my allergies have come early too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 11 hours ago, Juliancolton said: It's looking increasingly like explosive cyclogenesis will wait until well downstream. I blame moving the clocks forward. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: oh probably because mild + lots of moisture probably why my allergies have come early too lol Seeing the NW thread red, clicking on it and finding a lengthy leaf discussion ---All part of the fun of a lively (and botanically sensitive) weather forum... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 So at 12z the nam is all alone so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: So at 12z the nam is all alone so far Good riddance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hitman said: Good riddance Not sure how I posted that in here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: On my house it's the moss on the roof getting bright green (a month early). As per chronological realities, I use the scrub brush each morning to avoid that problem. Stay well, gl, as always ….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Seeing the NW thread red, clicking on it and finding a lengthy leaf discussion ---All part of the fun of a lively (and botanically sensitive) weather forum... That is why I don’t bother to check this sub forum very often. We have the biggest chance of seeing snow and this place is dead quiet. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 earliest since 2002 right? That's the last time I remember that we greened up so early. I saw a mosquito yesterday. First time I've ever seen one in early March.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 That is why I don’t bother to check this sub forum very often. We have the biggest chance of seeing snow and this place is dead quiet. .To be fair, if you would show your excitement here in this subthread, wouldn't the other lurkers do the same? I mean, the excitement factor is definitely here but we're also in the biggest screw zone in recent years and have learned not to get hopes up...Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 15 minutes ago, nycemt123 said: I saw a mosquito yesterday. First time I've ever seen one in early March. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk I have seen them up in the Poconos too. Hopefully this storm gets rid of them, for awhile anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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