January 2023 Banter

[aldie 22]

If i was ever in the market to pick up dates my first thought would be to get married have two kids and then play guitar in a church band....those factors are definitely a major draw

[H2O]

I went into the LR thread to see why so many pages.  i didn't have bass players get no ass on my bingo card for 300+ snowstorm discussion.

[AlexD1990]

anyone else in the subforum feel any shaking about 10 min ago? Felt all over southern DE and NJ.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

26 minutes ago, H2O said:

I went into the LR thread to see why so many pages.  i didn't have bass players get no ass on my bingo card for 300+ snowstorm discussion.

And yet...here we are!  A sign of the times...

[WeatherShak]

I agree with you, Bob. We might lose a bit on the margins, but overall I don't believe we're staring at mild temperatures and inability to snow year on year.

.

[Jebman]

Tahoe is at it again! Check out the 6200 foot and 8200 foot cams, and also Siberia! They are gettin' socked in but good as snow falls and blows around. They snowblew that monster 6 foot behemoth drift off the 8200 foot level platform but more snow is drifting right back onto it! I am absolutely GLUED to the cams, day and night, and blasting old Billy Joel and Elton John tracks that have long reminded me of heavy snow! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

[WxWatcher007]

This place is unbelievable  

[Wxdavis5784]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This place is unbelievable  

Plenty of souls ripe for reaping… Just sayin… 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This place is unbelievable  

The more things change... 

[Lowershoresadness]

3 hours ago, WeatherShak said:

.

Jesus,  what went on in the 50's

[Kay]

4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya can't Tellamann his instrument isn't attractive and not expect a comeBach

Of course those stereotypes are wrong, not even a question.

I did happen to know a drummer who was always late, but he's better now

2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

I'm glad you lifted the ban on fuck

Fuck yeah

[Bob Chill]

5 hours ago, mattie g said:

I agree with you, Bob. We might lose a bit on the margins, but overall I don't believe we're staring at mild temperatures and inability to snow year on year.

I'm about sick of the threads devolving into polarized food fighting over climate change. People don't want to debate to solve problems, they just want to fight to protect beliefs. Utter waste of time and energy. Kinda like tracking snow this winter. 

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

Plenty of souls ripe for reaping… Just sayin… 

Well, The Reaper only thinks he can retire. The Reaper is Eternal. He never takes a day off. There is always someone he needs to Reap.

C'MON, Reaper! Get Down To Bisnass!

The Panic Room needs you!

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm about sick of the threads devolving into polarized food fighting over climate change. People don't want to debate to solve problems, they just want to fight to protect beliefs. Utter waste of time and energy. Kinda like tracking snow this winter. 

Everyone needs to board a 787 and head west to Palisades at Tahoe. There's LOTS of snow there right now and five more feet of fresh POW thru next Tuesday. They are calling it the M.L.K. Blizzard.

Imagine carvin' turns in all that deep powder! Face shots would be EVERYWHERE! You'd need a SNORKEL!

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Lowershoresadness said:

Jesus,  what went on in the 50's

Lots and lots of atomic and nuclear testing. May or may not have had a direct impact.

[Paleocene]

1 hour ago, Lowershoresadness said:

Jesus,  what went on in the 50's

All those H bomb tests.

[nianticct]

JOKE OF A FORUM !  

[North Balti Zen]

Quote

 I think guidance is struggling right now pretty badly out past day 7-10.

isn't that literally the case starting around Nov 1 and lasting until around mid-june? and then isn't that still the case from mid-june to november 1?

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

isn't that literally the case starting around Nov 1 and lasting until around mid-june? and then isn't that still the case from mid-june to november 1?

Actually…I think the ensembles have done very well with the longwave pattern past D8 this year. This storm and the offshore development was suggested in general form out to like D14. Next pattern change, assuming it happens will also be like a D14-15 length call.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, nianticct said:

JOKE OF A FORUM !  

Do you still play Pokémon Go? 

[Ruin]

Is it to much to ask them to stop updating models? every time they update them they tend to do worse. Yeah they may be correct on 1 storm but they are wrong 90% of the time 

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

This was placed in the banter thread by WeatherShak but shows the average snow stats by decade.  There have been other bad decades before anyone knew about global warming.  I have lived through three of them so far.  Hopefully we all will live long enough to see good and bad decades.  Toughen  up people, or move further north.

Ya now do median and individual seasonal probabilities.  That chart is proof of  “you can make numbers say anything you want”.  Presenting the data in that format hides 3 facts.

1) Within the variance is a long term decline. 
2) the seasonal variance is increasing.  
3) the odds of seeing a specific amount of snow, X,  in a specific season is decreasing.  
 

Those are facts but this is my spin/preference.  Number 3 is the most significant.  The “what is the most likely amount of snow in any given season” value “x” is declining significantly.  While it’s cute that once in a blue moon we can get a hecs or a 50” season the vast majority of our lives are spent not in one of those years.  It matters way more to my satisfaction what happens the other 80-90% of the time!   And that’s where the decline is greatest.  If you remove all seasons that are an anomaly (more than a standard deviation) the decline becomes crystal clear!   We’ve always had big years and bad and variance. But the variance has shifted to where what is most likely to happen in any given year is radically lower.
 

I ran the numbers a couple years ago (so it’s only gotten worse) and at BWI the “what is the most likely value X in a season” had declined from 21 to 14. That matters to me way more than the fact every 8 years or so we get some 60” snowmageddon. Those don’t happen often enough to offset the losses in the rest of the years Imo. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm about sick of the threads devolving into polarized food fighting over climate change. People don't want to debate to solve problems, they just want to fight to protect beliefs. Utter waste of time and energy. Kinda like tracking snow this winter. 

I don’t care about the climate change angle. I mean I care but not in the framework of on this forum. Nothing we say here is going to do a damn thing one way or the other. What I find annoying are those that want to get bent when presented with simple facts and data because it might not agree with a preferred reality. I don’t care if that reality is because of politics or an emotional attachment to frozen water vapor!  And the data doesn’t even have to mean the trend will continue forever. Maybe the 2% are right and this warming is just cyclical and 50 years from now it gets colder and snowier again. But why does that even matter?  I don’t care what happens 50 years from now. I’ll be long gone. I’m using data to say how our climo has changed from some x period 25/50/100 years ago to right now for predictive purposes NOW!  That’s important because a lot our analysis is based on the concept of expectations based on these historical norms.  That’s pertinent to a pattern analysis discussion. Why is that even controversial?  We all know why, but I’m not playing that game. I’m just using data to show how probabilities have changed to be useful in a predictive way. 
 

Because of extreme variance which is increasing locally our snow data can be presented in ways that cover up the underlying trends.  But the most significant factor to me, as stated above, is that the “most likely amount of snow X in a given season Y” is declining significantly.  Yes we do still and will still get big huge snowy seasons once in a long while. But what is the most likely outcome in all the other years is getting worse, and pretty significantly so!   To me anyways what happens in 85% of the time matters more than what happens the 15% of years like 96/03/10/15….
 

 

[psuhoffman]

@JiExplain this one to me.  

Flow is off the North Pole. And I’m not cherry picking if you look at the run the pac pukes been cut off for a week at this point. It’s a CP airmass. 50/50 feature as storm approaches. The flow is so good the storm gets too suppressed.  

And…

Its just a rainstorm. No frozen even on the NW fringe in the coldest snowiest part of winter with a CP airmass and a suppressed track.  
 

Lately I don’t even know what we’re supposed to be looking for anymore!  

[Weather Will]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ya now do median and individual seasonal probabilities.  That chart is proof of  “you can make numbers say anything you want”.  Presenting the data in that format hides 3 facts.

1) Within the variance is a long term decline. 
2) the seasonal variance is increasing.  
3) the odds of seeing a specific amount of snow, X,  in a specific season is decreasing.  
 

Those are facts but this is my spin/preference.  Number 3 is the most significant.  The “what is the most likely amount of snow in any given season” value “x” is declining significantly.  While it’s cute that once in a blue moon we can get a hecs or a 50” season the vast majority of our lives are spent not in one of those years.  It matters way more to my satisfaction what happens the other 80-90% of the time!   And that’s where the decline is greatest.  If you remove all seasons that are an anomaly (more than a standard deviation) the decline becomes crystal clear!   We’ve always had big years and bad and variance. But the variance has shifted to where what is most likely to happen in any given year is radically lower.
 

I ran the numbers a couple years ago (so it’s only gotten worse) and at BWI the “what is the most likely value X in a season” had declined from 21 to 14. That matters to me way more than the fact every 8 years or so we get some 60” snowmageddon. Those don’t happen often enough to offset the losses in the rest of the years Imo. 

There is 0 doubt in my mind that the base state is warming.  I can remember the neighborhood lake in the 70s freezing over on a regular basis.  Does not happen anymore.  It’s sad, but it is what it is.  It just is not helpful to bring it up every time we have a warm stretch or a rain storm in winter in the mid range thread.  

We will have another blizzard.  Whether it is this year or 10 years from now, it will happen.

Silver lining this year is the drought busting rains/snows out west.  We want snow, but we don’t need it.

 

 

 

 

[pazzo83]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

There is 0 doubt in my mind that the base state is warming.  I can remember the neighborhood lake in the 70s freezing over on a regular basis.  Does not happen anymore.  It’s sad, but it is what it is.  It just is not helpful to bring it up every time we have a warm stretch or a rain storm in winter in the mid range thread.  

We will have another blizzard.  Whether it is this year or 10 years from now, it will happen.

Silver lining this year is the drought busting rains/snows out west.  We want snow, but we don’t need it.

 

 

 

 

I think there also has to be a slight increase in the probability of just insane snow events.  Yes, it will snow less overall.  But it still gets cold enough to snow here, and every so often the "stars will align" and you'll get a sufficient air mass that overlaps in time with one of the super-charged storms we are seeing more often (2016 for example).  

[pazzo83]

10 hours ago, mappy said:

I did not get to experience this snowstorm. Was on the lower eastern shore of MD in college and it did not snow there.  

I was visiting a friend in NW DC - only time I've ever experienced thundersnow.  It was awesome.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

I was visiting a friend in NW DC - only time I've ever experienced thundersnow.  It was awesome.

I was in Silver Spring and remember that storm well. Got about a foot maybe 13”, most of it overnight. Rates were insane. I stayed awake through the whole thing and went to sleep after it ended. Good times

[pazzo83]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I was in Silver Spring and remember that storm well. Got about a foot maybe 13”, most of it overnight. Rates were insane. I stayed awake through the whole thing and went to sleep after it ended. Good times

yeah i remember I needed to get something out of my car, so I was outside in the parking lot and sure enough, a flash and a loud bang.  The snow was blinding.

[psuhoffman]

9 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I dont disagree with a thing you're saying. Honestly. I'm trying to look for at the cause of things by utilizing those tools that have been studied and written about much deeper and longer ie enso, pdo, nam, mjo, etc. The whole (can't say the word) thing is still relatively in infancy of studies. You would be an AMAZING asset to that group.  You have alot to offer in that regard. I hope I didn't offend you which I probably didnt....I've been around long enough to know you are a debater with thick skin. Have a good one fellow PSU alum.

Nothing anyone has said on here had ever offended me. It’s just discussion and debate. Not personal. None of your points was wrong. I just felt there has to be more to it since none of those factors explains it all and it’s unlikely to get so many things to combine randomly.