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January 2023 Banter


George BM
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Just now, IronTy said:

What a sad state of affairs.  Just looked at the 06Z...

It's over. This is usually the time I cave and raise the white flag and then Mirphys Law kicks in and we end up tracking discrete threats. Different feel tho this year. Flag is hoisted but I dont see any way we get out of this aside from a complete reshuffle of the atmospheric deck. That may not happen for quite a while.

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9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh shoot I forgot that was today! Happy Birthday to a one-of-a-kind genius. I'll always be biased to Beethoven, of course, but Mozart had his own genius. And he wrote so much in such a brief life! And that last year he reached a whole new level with the last three symphonies, the clarinet concerto, and the Requiem. Oh if he had lived a tad longer what could've been! But...not quite meant to be. Brought so much to music--Happy Birthday Mozart!

 

 

Only 35 years old! Astounding how much he wrote. It helps that he was already churning out incredible music as a teenager.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's over. This is usually the time I cave and raise the white flag and then Mirphys Law kicks in and we end up tracking discrete threats. Different feel tho this year. Flag is hoisted but I dont see any way we get out of this aside from a complete reshuffle of the atmospheric deck. That may not happen for quite a while.

DST can't get here soon enough.  At least we can track the increasing sun angle and that won't let us down.  Even the GFS could predict that right (maybe?).  

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I'm looking into some alternative and more exciting/rewarding hobbies outside of this disastrous winter weather thing. What do you folks think of these?

-Fantasy curling league

-Growing algae

-Lint collecting

-Sleeping

-Making random pointless spreadsheets

-Timing various paints drying ...

-And inputting that data into a random spreadsheet^^

Let me know if you or a friend are interested in joining a fantasy curling league. I might know a guy trying to organize one.

 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm looking into some alternative and more exciting/rewarding hobbies outside of this disastrous winter weather thing. What do you folks think of these?

-Fantasy curling league

-Growing algae

-Lint collecting

-Sleeping

-Making random pointless spreadsheets

-Timing various paint drying times...

-And inputting that data into a random spreadsheet^^

Let me know if you or a friend are interested in joining a fantasy curling league. I might know a guy trying to organize one.

 

Sleeping hits hard. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm looking into some alternative and more exciting/rewarding hobbies outside of this disastrous winter weather thing. What do you folks think of these?

-Fantasy curling league

-Growing algae

-Lint collecting

-Sleeping

-Making random pointless spreadsheets

-Timing various paint drying times...

-And inputting that data into a random spreadsheet^^

Let me know if you or a friend are interested in joining a fantasy curling league. I might know a guy trying to organize one.

 

Few steps ahead of you. Instead of watching wx models this week, I bought this bad ass 1967 diesel Massey Ferguson on Tuesday. A piece of local history as it spent 50 years on the same farm. Really cool machine. Rear hyrdros lift 3k lbs and it can tow 5k. I can't even break it lol. 

Now I'm rooting for dry weather. It can be cold or hot but need dry. I gotz lotza workz to do and I'm about sick AF of mud 

 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20230128-130412_Gmail.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Few steps ahead of you. Instead of watching wx models this week, I bought this bad ass 1967 diesel Massey Ferguson on Tuesday. A piece of local history as it spent 50 years on the same farm. Really cool machine. Rear hyrdros lift 3k lbs and it can tow 5k. I can't even break it lol. 

Now I'm rooting for dry weather. It can be cold or hot but need dry. I gotz lotza workz to do and I'm about sick AF of mud 

 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20230128-130412_Gmail.jpg

She's a  beaut!! Congrats.

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Random/slightly rambling thoughts properly placed in banter thread:

Man I'm tired of gettin' depressed over this weather. I'm through!! Now I can't drive 3 hours to the slopes because

a) I've never been skiing and don't know a thing about it or know anyone who does it.

b) I have musical commitments on weekends. I mean I might be able to do a Friday-Saturday afternoon MAYBE. But again, nobody I know does it.

Man it's the acceptance! May not be able to anow anymore, who knows! Maybe we finally just boil over and become the dang south I don't know. But distraction with other things isn't enough: Because you can be doing something completely unrelated...but all you gotta do is see a forecast, step outside, see the kitty litter for melting ice still sitting there...there are reminders EVERYWHERE. So it's not just distraction" You literally gotta be okay with how things are. It requires an actual peace with it--not just throwing yourself into other things (at least...that hasn't been working for me).

Now of course when Spring arrived it's not as much of an issue, because the natural progression of things is warmer (be it in April or not until May, lol). So it fades between Spring and late Fall. But now you can't even look to enso because even if the niño does develop it still might not work despite being historically our best shot (unless it's an overwhelming super nino). Crap is so broken...

So again, somehow you have to make peace with how things are, that if it doesn't snow another flake in our lives, that it will still be OK.

It could also be a perspective thing as well. That when we're in the midst of winter staring at models, watching threats go by...there's the illusion that it's bigger than it actually is! It is indeed "just snow"...but You actually have to put it in the proper place.

.....All this is way easier said than done, lol But not impossible I hope...

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15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Random/slightly rambling thoughts properly placed in banter thread:

Man I'm tired of gettin' depressed over this weather. I'm through!! Now I can't drive 3 hours to the slopes because

a) I've never been skiing and don't know a thing about it or know anyone who does it.

b) I have musical commitments on weekends. I mean I might be able to do a Friday-Saturday afternoon MAYBE. But again, nobody I know does it.

Man it's the acceptance! May not be able to anow anymore, who knows! Maybe we finally just boil over and become the dang south I don't know. But distraction with other things isn't enough: Because you can be doing something completely unrelated...but all you gotta do is see a forecast, step outside, see the kitty litter for melting ice still sitting there...there are reminders EVERYWHERE. So it's not just distraction" You literally gotta be okay with how things are. It requires an actual peace with it--not just throwing yourself into other things (at least...that hasn't been working for me).

Now of course when Spring arrived it's not as much of an issue, because the natural progression of things is warmer (be it in April or not until May, lol). So it fades between Spring and late Fall. But now you can't even look to enso because even if the niño does develop it still might not work despite being historically our best shot (unless it's an overwhelming super nino). Crap is so broken...

So again, somehow you have to make peace with how things are, that if it doesn't snow another flake in our lives, that it will still be OK.

It could also be a perspective thing as well. That when we're in the midst of winter staring at models, watching threats go by...there's the illusion that it's bigger than it actually is! It is indeed "just snow"...but You actually have to put it in the proper place.

.....All this is way easier said than done, lol But not impossible I hope...

It is what it is. No amount of hoping is going to change what mother nature does.

Honestly I've already moved on to spring. Not expecting anything but if we do somehow luck into something I'll still really enjoy it.

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8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

She's a  beaut!! Congrats.

It's near perfect mechanically. I drove 10 miles on country roads to get it to our property. Lol. It was a fun/wild ride. Every person who saw me drive by smiled and waved or gave a thumbs up or whatever. It set in right then... I'm restoring everything cosmetic and keeping it until I'm gone. It's a special tractor. One farmer maintained it for its whole life. I'll do the same thing

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5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Few steps ahead of you. Instead of watching wx models this week, I bought this bad ass 1967 diesel Massey Ferguson on Tuesday. A piece of local history as it spent 50 years on the same farm. Really cool machine. Rear hyrdros lift 3k lbs and it can tow 5k. I can't even break it lol. 

Now I'm rooting for dry weather. It can be cold or hot but need dry. I gotz lotza workz to do and I'm about sick AF of mud 

 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20230128-130412_Gmail.jpg

please tell me you have a big ole straw hat to wear while on that thing

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This winter hasn't exactly inspired me all that much for taking photos (no snow!!).  But even as dull as it can be in January, there's still some things out there in nature that are interesting!

Here are some wispy seeds (taken with a macro lens close up)...

1914810266_WispySeeds.thumb.jpg.6baee95f0ff4e7d347edd9ecd1222304.jpg

And the moon shrouded in clouds (I added a blueish/orchid tint to make the clouds look kind of like smoke)...

464777410_MoonClouds.thumb.jpg.f28a932c526177f903cf12c048072e7b.jpg

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5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Few steps ahead of you. Instead of watching wx models this week, I bought this bad ass 1967 diesel Massey Ferguson on Tuesday. A piece of local history as it spent 50 years on the same farm. Really cool machine. Rear hyrdros lift 3k lbs and it can tow 5k. I can't even break it lol. 

Now I'm rooting for dry weather. It can be cold or hot but need dry. I gotz lotza workz to do and I'm about sick AF of mud 

 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20230128-130412_Gmail.jpg

That's a beaut! I am damned Jealous now!

You need to haul it up to the Donner Pass and demonstrate to the locals there how to move snow.

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Okay folks, I know what I said the other day about NE Corridor snowstorms being pedestrian, but I gotta LOVE Jay Peak right now, check out Tim Kelley's weather forecast!

https://jaypeakresort.com/skiing-riding/snow-report-maps/weather-tim-kelley

UPDATED JANUARY 27TH, 2023

On a scale of 1 to 10 - we are at Stoke Level 11.

"All systems are go." The snow is "pretty pretty pretty pretty good."

All that TK 'Hype' was not Hyperbole. In fact, my snow forecast did end up being "conservative."

On January 20, the "my math" part estimated 37.45 inches from January 19-27. It's time to score my grade.

We got 40"!!

I was off by 2.46", let's grade it B+, but like when I was in (Lyndon State) College, up it to A- for "always contributes to class dialogue." So there is "room for improvement."

That's a tough one because the weather pattern is getting even more challenging. The air in Canada is getting colder and colder, but the air here at Jay Peak is getting warmer.

It's an atmospheric battle zone this weekend and next week. Ultimately the cold will win out, but the timing is still in question.

A strong low pressure system is crossing way north near James Bay Canada Saturday, it almost looks like a wayward polar vortex on the weather map. When low pressure goes to our north, it's cyclonic,(counterclockwise) circulation generates wind from the south. That track also means a warm front, in this case we get two of them in 36 hours. Yikes! That's a lot of wind and warmth. But it also means a couple bursts of snow with each 'FroPa' (Frontal Passage). That's just one day!

That Low will also push down two cold fronts, a polar front Saturday night, and an arctic front Sunday. Are you counting along? -That's four FroPa's in two days. Good luck with that forecast! Oh yeah - AND we have a wave of low pressure on the Arctic Front Sunday. Oo la la.

The timing of this dizzying array of weather is impossible…but here goes.

Snow, if it stopped at all, is flying again Saturday morning. It's windy from the southwest with highs in the 20s, about 3" of snow.

Occasional light snow continues at night with wind easing and coming around from the east, with lows near 18°, about 2" of snow.

Snow increasing in intensity Sunday with wind coming from who knows what direction, hopefully not too much of it, highs somewhere between 15° and 32°, and about 6" of snow. After that, the arctic front is stalled over New England and the forecast is near impossible,

Let's call it 'colder with occasional snow and wind' to close out January - probably another 10-15" Sunday to Wednesday, when that coldest air of the season so far, that we talked about last time, moves in for real... Maybe. 

For now, let’s just decide to live dangerously and let ourselves and our minds wander in the thought of cranking it up to 11, and have a great weekend!

Talk again Tuesday - maybe in person,

 

Tim

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3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This board sucks.. moderation is so immature. How's that for the only science forum on the internet? Just like the government disappointing, disappointing. sick of being moderated by trash. 

What?

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6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This board sucks.. moderation is so immature. How's that for the only science forum on the internet? Just like the government disappointing, disappointing. sick of being moderated by trash. 

You’re free to go post elsewhere if you are so disappointed. It’s Saturday, we aren’t always around. Figure out some patience please. 

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