biodhokie Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: Probably because SPC posted that hatched tor area in their MCD over DC metro... Wasn't the hatched for wind and just a 10% tor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, biodhokie said: Wasn't the hatched for wind and just a 10% tor? The MCD was for tornado watch coming for our region and it's image highlighted the area for greater tor potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Looking more and more like a wind risk day. Storms in WV just aren't maintaining any respectable rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: not much low level turning LCLs aren't ideal in that sounding either, although I'm guessing the HRRR is overmixing, which might also be affecting the modeled wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 The SPC MCD clearly says that the wind profiles should improve into the mid-atlantic over the next few hours in response of the rapidly approaching strong upper level and soon-to-form low level jet streak. Tornadoes are definitely a threat, though clearly wind is the biggest and everyone should know that. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Next hour to hour and a half is key to get to convective temp. We seem to be running a few degrees too cool right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Next hour to hour and a half is key to get to convective temp. We seem to be running a few degrees too cool right now. I don't know if you want to reach convective temp if you want to maximize severe potential here. Need shear to increase. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 TOR Preston County WV with ping pong sized hail as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Storm out near Kingwood is a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Tornado warned storm approaching Garrett County, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Tornado Watch for the region until 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Tornado warned storm approaching Garrett County, MD. STW issued by LWX for Garrett... ping pong ball sized hail and winds to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 TOR Watch up till 9pm for the region... pretty large box... goes from RIC to the NY/PA border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Tornado Watch until 9pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Southern and Central Pennsylvania Virginia Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A very favorable setup for severe thunderstorms including tornadoes and widespread damaging winds is unfolding across the region, with severe storms expected to steadily develop and increase across the region this afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles southeast of Charlottesville VA to 50 miles northwest of Williamsport PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 599...WW 600...WW 601... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 60% probs for 2 or more tornados (Mod), 30% probs of 1 or more strong tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Latest HRRR is pretty underwhelming honestly. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, yoda said: TOR Watch up till 9pm for the region... pretty large box... goes from RIC to the NY/PA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 60/30 tor probs 90/40 wind probs on the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 yeah tornado probs not as high as it could be, the wind though is gonna be our biggest threat. contemplating whether i need to advise the dance studio owner to close tonight out of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest HRRR is pretty underwhelming honestly. Def still develops that nasty bow from the frame before this to the end of this frame and punches through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest HRRR is pretty underwhelming honestly. Doing a great job of capturing current activity lol not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, Newman said: The SPC MCD clearly says that the wind profiles should improve into the mid-atlantic over the next few hours in response of the rapidly approaching strong upper level and soon-to-form low level jet streak. Tornadoes are definitely a threat, though clearly wind is the biggest and everyone should know that. The current cells aren't moving very fast. I suspect that will keep the tor threat rather localized for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 TOR Garrett County BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 126 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Garrett County in western Maryland... * Until 200 PM EDT. * At 126 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Terra Alta, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Oakland around 140 PM EDT. Accident around 155 PM EDT. Bittinger around 200 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Deep Creek Lake State Park, Hutton, Swallow Falls State Park, McComas Beach and McHenry. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3959 7922 3946 7928 3941 7948 3962 7948 3967 7933 TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 253DEG 24KT 3950 7956 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest HRRR is pretty underwhelming honestly. It is favoring distinct bowing segments 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Def still develops that nasty bow from the frame before this to the end of this frame and punches through the area. This storm has La Plata special written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 I'd watch the cell west of Hagerstown too. Some broad rotation has been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 That is one heck of a storm heading into Garrett County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Primed up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Got a right turner/mover about to move into extreme N Frederick County VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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