yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Huh.. kept the large 10 percent with no change 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 89/74 at Fort Belvoir, full sun for about an hour now. Fun sidebar -- we just had a mini power outage of a couple seconds here in the office. I heard a couple folks on the floor above us running about, yelling, "Is this THE STORM??" Shit, people...look out your damn windows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Starting to wonder if they're going to go 30% tor or something. There’s no way they’d do that until the 20z update had ground truth with multiple TW’s and reports. Could see it happening this afternoon given the destabilization but they wouldn’t on a “whim” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 No changes that I can see on wind or hail or tor probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Well that was anti climatic lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 SPC AC 071640 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN KY/NORTHEAST TN/NORTHWEST NC...WESTERN AND NORTHERN VA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WV...CENTRAL MD...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across parts of the eastern U.S. today with widespread and locally destructive damaging winds and tornadoes as the greatest threats, especially across the southern/central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. ...Southeast to the Upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... Owing to a very moist/unstable air mass and very strong winds aloft for August, a widespread severe-weather risk is already unfolding at late morning/midday across a broad region, initially west of the Appalachians spine. Refer to ongoing Watches and Mesoscale Discussions for the latest regional details. A shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley will continue to advance toward the northern Appalachians by evening. A pair of 500-mb speed maxima from 55-65 kts are expected to be centered by late afternoon across eastern KY/TN and southern WV into western VA/NC, and separately over the Mid-South. Peak flow within an expansive 700-mb jet should be centered between the 500-mb maxima across the TN Valley. A plume of large potential buoyancy supported by high PW and steep mid-level lapse rates, and centered over the Mid-South/TN Valley will expand east-northeast towards the central/southern Appalachians with an expansive swath of MLCAPE from 2000-3500 J/kg expected by peak heating. Ongoing storms across eastern portions of TN/KY and WV/southern OH will progress into an increasingly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment downstream, yielding many supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Upscale growth into several linear clusters with embedded supercells is anticipated this afternoon as convective coverage becomes widespread from PA/MD south-southwest across the southern Appalachian states. Forecast soundings suggest the greatest tornado threat will probably exist across eastern KY/TN northeast across southern/eastern WV, western VA, central MD and into southeast PA. Given the supercell wind profiles, significant severe wind gusts will also be possible on a localized basis. Across the Southeast, aided by a separate mid-level speed max, linear clusters of storms will continue to develop and spread generally eastward across parts of the TN Valley toward the southern Appalachians and Carolinas, with damaging winds as the most common hazard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 They added a slight in west texas. Not everything is about you guys. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 It will be interesting as SPC has “learned a lot” in years past with regards to derecho’s and how the public receives their outlooks. If there’s an sig severe line producing 70-80+ MPH gusts into DC/BAL at aftn rush that’s when I could see a 60% wind type of local upgrade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 If anything I'd think there is more of a chance of an upgrade to high risk/60% wind then there is upping the TOR probs given the predominate linear mode. EDIT: But I think the overall look may be just short of that kind of upgrade. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: If anything I'd think there is more of a chance of an upgrade to high risk/60% wind then there is upping the TOR probs given the predominate linear mode. Spc has informally said they won’t go high for wind and now reserve that for big tornado outbreaks. Even though that policy contradicts their stated guidelines. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: If anything I'd think there is more of a chance of an upgrade to high risk/60% wind then there is upping the TOR probs given the predominate linear mode. EDIT: But I think the overall look may be just short of that kind of upgrade. Agreed, it would have to be a real time upgrade based on widespread reports/damage and sig severe reports. as a side note, you must be pretty impressed with the set up if the look is “just below” that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, Tezeta said: Spc has informally said they won’t go high for wind and now reserve that for big tornado outbreaks. Even though that policy contradicts their stated guidelines. Makes sense that they’re keeping their word, no bigger event than the iowa Illinois 2020 derecho. If that’s not getting a high for wind, nothing is… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Tezeta said: Spc has informally said they won’t go high for wind and now reserve that for big tornado outbreaks. Even though that policy contradicts their stated guidelines. Really? wow...I find that rather puzzling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 CZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 071649 DCZ000-DEZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-PAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-080200- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2023 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Eastern U.S. this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Virginia West Virginia Maryland Eastern Tennessee Eastern Kentucky Southern Pennsylvania Western and Central North Carolina District of Columbia Western South Carolina Northern Georgia Delaware * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across parts of the eastern U.S. today with widespread and locally destructive damaging winds and tornadoes as the greatest threats, especially across the southern/central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Guyer.. 08/07/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Tezeta said: Spc has informally said they won’t go high for wind and now reserve that for big tornado outbreaks. Even though that policy contradicts their stated guidelines. Interesting since straight line winds in a bow are more destructive over a larger area than a tornado, generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Really? wow...I find that rather puzzling. It’s all wx twitter discussion but credible people repeat it just about every derecho morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Pretty much all the STWs coming out of RLX right now are getting the TOR possible tag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Agreed, it would have to be a real time upgrade based on widespread reports/damage and sig severe reports. as a side note, you must be pretty impressed with the set up if the look is “just below” that Yeah I am rather impressed. Pretty steep mid-level lapse rates, rich llvl theta-e air, and a pretty potent H3 and H5 jet max punching into the region. I was a little unsure yesterday/early morning exactly how big this could be, but those 2-6km lapse rates are pretty steep and if often times a big discriminator in big wind vs. non big wind events. There could be a very narrow swath of some pretty significant wind damage should a bow develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Tezeta said: It’s all wx twitter discussion but credible people repeat it just about every derecho morning When the derecho came did we even kknow it was coming the morning before? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, canderson said: Interesting since straight line winds in a bow are more destructive over a larger area than a tornado, generally. My guess is that it’s done for social scientific reasons related to human deaths. They want highs to coincide with PDS tornado days since that’s statistically where the death comes, even if spatially and from a property damage standpoint big bow echoes deserve attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 So it begins BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1254 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Allegany County in western Maryland... North central Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... East central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Northwestern Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Northeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 145 PM EDT. * At 1253 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast of Fort Ashby, or 9 miles northeast of Romney, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Romney, Paw Paw, Greenwood, Berkeley Springs, Springfield, Great Cacapon, Green Spring, Oldtown, Little Orleans, Johnsons Mill, Valley View, Fishers Bridge, Spohrs Crossroads, Oakland, Rock Gap, Bloomery, Points, Smith Crossroads, Unger and Wapocomo. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3972 7834 3964 7809 3959 7812 3959 7814 3941 7822 3931 7873 3940 7880 3944 7877 3946 7874 3972 7837 TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 240DEG 49KT 3943 7862 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Got to think the TOR Watch is coming shortly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Looks like the cells firing in western MD and the WV panhandle are that lead cluster some of the CAMs were honing in on yesterday and this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, yoda said: Got to think the TOR Watch is coming shortly They might be waiting for the 18z IAD launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: They might be waiting for the 18z IAD launch. Isn't that an hour from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Aside from the mod risk, that’s a massive area with enhanced risk along the east coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Going to need to see improvements in the wind profiles over the Mid Atlantic coinciding with convection to get a higher tornado/sig wind threat here. Current VADs from the area are pretty paltry on low level shear (and the RAP doesn't offer substantial improvements). They are better back in E TN/E KY though. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, andyhb said: Going to need to see improvements in the wind profiles over the Mid Atlantic coinciding with convection to get a higher tornado/sig wind threat here. Current VADs from the area are pretty paltry on low level shear (and the RAP doesn't offer substantial improvements). They are better back in E TN/E KY though. Yea kind of wonder why so many people are worried about the tornado risk up towards DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Going to need to see improvements in the wind profiles over the Mid Atlantic coinciding with convection to get a higher tornado/sig wind threat here. Current VADs from the area are pretty paltry on low level shear (and the RAP doesn't offer substantial improvements). They are better back in E TN/E KY though. not much low level turning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea kind of wonder why so many people are worried about the tornado risk up towards DC. Probably because SPC posted that hatched tor area in their MCD over DC metro... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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