Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Latest HRRR hammers Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore counties. Several UHI tracks. DC seems more like run of the mill line of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Watching from afar in the northern extent of the enhanced today across SNY where it’s much less clear how things might develop up here, going to be a wild day up and down the eastern seaboard regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest HRRR hammers Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore counties. Several UHI tracks. DC seems more like run of the mill line of storms. thanks. just emailed my health/safety guy at work to give him the heads up. and spoke with my boss at the studio to make sure we had a shelter in place plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest HRRR hammers Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore counties. Several UHI tracks. DC seems more like run of the mill line of storms. 12z HRRR has large squall line or bow echo moving into the region around 20z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, yoda said: 12z HRRR has large squall line or bow echo moving into the region around 20z... The best part of the bowing segment is north of I-70. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 071302 DCZ000-DEZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-PAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-071800- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2023 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the eastern U.S. today... * LOCATIONS... Virginia Central and southern West Virginia Maryland Eastern Tennessee Eastern Kentucky Southeast Pennsylvania Western and central North Carolina District of Columbia Western South Carolina Northern Georgia Delaware * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible across parts of the eastern U.S. today with widespread damaging winds, locally destructive, and isolated tornadoes as the greatest threats from the southern and central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic States. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 08/07/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3,707 days. It's been a while. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Clearing out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 9am obs out towards the i81 corridor .SHENANDOAH VALLEY... CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS MARTINSBURG MOSUNNY 74 69 85 SW10G17 29.86S HAGERSTOWN APT MOSUNNY 75 69 81 S9 29.87S STAUNTON* SUNNY 74 70 85 S7 29.94F WINCHESTER* MOSUNNY 73 68 83 SW9 29.87S LURAY* SUNNY 73 68 83 SW6 29.89F NEW MARKET* SUNNY 76 73 91 SW8 29.90S WAYNESBORO* SUNNY 74 69 86 CALM 29.94F ...APPALACHIANS... CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS PETERSBURG WV* SUNNY 82 72 69 S8 29.87F CUMBERLAND* MOSUNNY 76 71 87 S3 29.90F OAKLAND* PTSUNNY 68 68 100 SW8G16 29.95F HOT SPRINGS* CLOUDY 70 70 100 SW13 30.06F ELKINS MOSUNNY 73 69 87 CALM 29.92F BEDFORD PA* PTSUNNY 72 72 98 CALM 29.87S JOHNSTOWN PTSUNNY 72 70 94 SW8 29.91R ALTOONA MOSUNNY 73 70 90 S7 29.88S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Skies brightening in Columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, George BM said: 3,707 days. It's been a while. What product on the IEMBot site did you use to get that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Should be an interesting morning AFD update from LWX shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Skies clearing in Westminster. Can see blue skies above low cloud deck but it’s burning off with partly sunny conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Has there ever been HIGH RISK for this area? I recall back in 1998 there was an outbreak with large hail and a tornado in Carroll County. Here we did reach severe with hail. I remember from watching the Weather Channel when their maps were orange and red where red was essentially slight risk and when it was worse it would be a lighter, salmon color and it read greatest risk. Assuming that would be MOD or higher. There was no ENHANCED then. It's been quite dark here, but it's getting noticeably brighter now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: What product on the IEMBot site did you use to get that? It's actually from the same link you shared yesterday. Thanks for that, btw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, Stormfly said: Has there ever been HIGH RISK for this area? I recall back in 1998 there was an outbreak with large hail and a tornado in Carroll County. Here we did reach severe with hail. I remember from watching the Weather Channel when their maps were orange and red where red was essentially slight risk and when it was worse it would be a lighter, salmon color and it read greatest risk. Assuming that would be MOD or higher. There was no ENHANCED then. No there hasn’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Skies clearing in Westminster. Can see blue skies above low cloud deck but it’s burning off with partly sunny conditions. 00z HREF from SPC was big to focus on a lack of mid and upper level cloud deck. That's often a hinderance for our bigger sever weather days. If we can just clear this low level junk out we should be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormfly said: Has there ever been HIGH RISK for this area? I recall back in 1998 there was an outbreak with large hail and a tornado in Carroll County. Here we did reach severe with hail. I remember from watching the Weather Channel when their maps were orange and red where red was essentially slight risk and when it was worse it would be a lighter, salmon color and it read greatest risk. Assuming that would be MOD or higher. There was no ENHANCED then. It's been quite dark here, but it's getting noticeably brighter now. There has never been a High Risk for our area and I don't see how one would be needed today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: 00z HREF from SPC was big to focus on a lack of mid and upper level cloud deck. That's often a hinderance for our bigger sever weather days. If we can just clear this low level junk out we should be golden. Looking at the satellite looks like line of clearing crossing 81 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: There has never been a High Risk for our area and I don't see how one would be needed today. Regular 60% wind doesn’t even get a HIGH risk, though when would there ever be a 60% without having a hatched area. Hard to think we’d ever seen one outside a long tracking derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Regular 60% wind doesn’t even get a HIGH risk, though when would there ever be a 60% without having a hatched area. Hard to think we’d ever seen one outside a long tracking derecho Yup. SPC high risk days seem to be focused on tornadoes, and that's fine. I still think the 2012 Derecho should've been a hatched 60%. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. SPC high risk days seem to be focused on tornadoes, and that's fine. I still think the 2012 Derecho should've been a hatched 60%. Agreed - though it seemed like it was super "on the fly" in terms of how the upgrade happened. Wonder if that played a role - and up until the bitter end it seemed like there was low confidence in the intense strength being maintained this far east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Agreed - though it seemed like it was super "on the fly" in terms of how the upgrade happened. Wonder if that played a role - and up until the bitter end it seemed like there was low confidence in the intense strength being maintained this far east. Two issues for that day: 1.) I don't think the EML was properly diagnosed until the 18z RAOB from ILN and the 00z soundings from LWX and PBZ came out. 2.) CAMS were still a work in progress and were all over the board. The CAMS that had the EML right blew the derecho through DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdatcher Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: No there hasn’t Derecho in 2012 probably would have been one in hindsight looking back on it now (was a moderate risk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. SPC high risk days seem to be focused on tornadoes, and that's fine. I still think the 2012 Derecho should've been a hatched 60%. We started that day in no risk/TSTM if I remember right? Even the 8/10/20 derecho in iowa was MDT, should have been high clearly due to the nature of incredibly intense reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just now, DDweatherman said: We started that day in no risk/TSTM if I remember right? Even the 8/10/20 derecho in iowa was MDT, should have been high clearly due to the nature of incredibly intense reports. Yes. Here's the event from the SPC archive: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120629 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 I am angling to get out of work early...hope we don't start seeing radar blowing up too early. Because getting out prior to 3:30 is looking like a losing battle...unless by some miracle my firm decides to be lenient with liberal leave or something. I've messaged as best as I could to the powers that be (I'm the company weather person lol) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just had an energetic, but far from severe, cell cross MBY. 0.27" in just a few minutes w/T&L. For those hoping for true severe weather, hopefully this doesn't screw things up downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Is there a particular link or map / link that is best to see a visual animation as to which areas are clearing out? I am using this:https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24But perhaps there is a better waySent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Sun is coming out now here in Harford county. 74/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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