2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)

[dailylurker]

29 minutes ago, high risk said:

     The previous dozen posts discussing the higher end potential for tomorrow aren't enough for you?     

No. I want play by play as each model run comes out lol. I just wish more people were excited about a wedge possibly going through DC tomorrow. 

[H2O]

We still have to thread needles to get wedges. Early cloud cover can screw us. I’m 25% of halfway in

[mappy]

32 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

No. I want play by play as each model run comes out lol. I just wish more people were excited about a wedge possibly going through DC tomorrow. 

It’s the weekend lol

[09-10 analogy]

If I'm reading Sterling's discussion correctly, if the storms hold off until later Monday afternoon/evening, the LLJ would give a boost to mesocyclone development. Is this akin to what I often read in discussions of Dixie tornado threats, which often mention a nighttime tornado threat being heightened by a nocturnal LLJ?  And, no, I'm not comparing tomorrow to Dixie outbreaks.

There is, however, this August event:

https://michigan-weather-center.org/the-tornado-and-the-burning-of-washington-august-25-1814#:~:text=The tornado tore through the,of homes and scattered about.

[87storms]

Latest Nam twins would fit the overall summer in Frederick very well. Hopefully it’s wrong. Regardless, this is obviously a classic nowcasting event.

[Rhino16]

57 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Latest Nam twins would fit the overall summer in Frederick very well. Hopefully it’s wrong. Regardless, this is obviously a classic nowcasting event.

I would get 0 rain from the NAM. Not expecting much anyways considering I’m in the MRGL.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Latest Nam twins would fit the overall summer in Frederick very well. Hopefully it’s wrong. Regardless, this is obviously a classic nowcasting event.

Got a screenshot for those of us who are mobile?

[AmericanWxFreak]

Here’s the 3k for this evening/tonight and tomorrow. Brings a pretty healthy looking line towards us this evening but it goes poof right before reaching our area. 4-5 hours later it brings some cells up from the south for some of us tonight. 
 

Pretty active radar simulation for tomorrow but there’s definitely a focus on south of 70 again - just cherry picked one image which doesn’t tell the whole story. 

[AdamHLG]

It’s days like today when I start thinking whether the underrated days will over perform. There’s a feeling in the air as I walk the dog .


.

[AmericanWxFreak]

1 minute ago, AdamHLG said:

It’s days like today when I start thinking whether the underrated days will over perform. There’s a feeling in the air as I walk the dog .


.

Seems like some agreement among models for the first round to dry up but for there to be a cluster of storms moving along 95 around 10pm-1am tonight. 

[87storms]

I would get 0 rain from the NAM. Not expecting much anyways considering I’m in the MRGL.

I just go by feel at this point. It’s humid (check)…and there’s sun (check). Rest is tbd like almost every other event here lol. What I do know is this is absolutely my kind of weather aka sunshine/humidity and a chance of storms later. I have no interest in cool/dry/cloudy/windy in the summer (we get enough of that from November to April).

[George BM]

45% Wind for tomorrow. 

[yoda]

45 WIND ADDED ON 1730Z OTLK 

@high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe

[yoda]

 

 

 

[George BM]

...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians and
   Carolinas...
   Scattered showers and isolated storms are forecast to be ongoing
   over the OH Valley Monday morning with more widely spaced convection
   trailing west-southwest into the Mid South/Ozarks.  Considerable
   cloud cover with northward extent over a large moist/warm sector
   will limit destabilization into portions of PA and north.  Farther
   south, heating of a very moist boundary layer will yield a moderate
   to very unstable airmass (1500 to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) from PA
   southward into the southern Appalachians.  

   Multiple bands and clusters will likely begin to develop towards
   midday over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians.  Less
   certain is convective timing over the TN Valley where a large spread
   of model solutions is currently depicted.  Nonetheless, scattered
   thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon and
   become quite extensive from northern AL/GA into PA/VA/WV/MD.  A mix
   of semi-discrete cells and clusters are possible initially and a
   risk for all severe hazards is expected given favorable shear
   profiles for storm organization/low-level rotation.  Upscale growth
   is expected as storms move into the northern VA/MD and Chesapeake
   Bay vicinity during the late afternoon/early evening where the wind
   risk will seemingly be maximized.  Much of the activity will
   eventually move east of the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening
   and areas farther south through the Carolina Piedmont and into the
   coastal plain.  

 

Fun sounding disco for this region.

[Eskimo Joe]

If these storm could hold off until 6/7pm that'd be great.

[high risk]

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

45 WIND ADDED ON 1730Z OTLK 

@high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe

  

   I'm out of town tomorrow, so LOCK IT IN.

[Eskimo Joe]

24 minutes ago, yoda said:

45 WIND ADDED ON 1730Z OTLK 

@high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe

What are your thoughts on tomorrow's potential?

[Amped]

Best chance for discrete cells will be in northwestern areas when the storms  first develop.  It will probably merge into some sort of an MCS by the time it gets to I95 leading to more of a widespread wind threat.

[09-10 analogy]

I think they expanded the 5% TOR risk, and expanded the wind risks eastward as well.

 

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

I think they expanded the 5% TOR risk, and expanded the wind risks eastward as well.

 

Correct on both counts

[yoda]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What are your thoughts on tomorrow's potential?

I think some of it will depend on how much sun we get tomorrow morning with regards to cloud debris, as you and others have mentioned.  If we can get sun going by like 10am... we might be off to the races.  I expect some decent tornado potential tomorrow with the curved hodo's and low LCLs as well. 

[Stormfly]

When was the last time we were in moderate?

[George BM]

4 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

When was the last time we were in moderate?

June 13th, 2013.

[nj2va]

There’s a 5/High risk that this thread will be full of complaining throughout the day tomorrow about conditions…clouds….CAPE (not the poster lol)…etc.  

[yoda]

Afternoon AFD from LWX about tomorrow

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Given the persistent low-level warm advection overnight, low
clouds and patchy fog will likely blanket portions of the area.
How quickly the mid-summer solar angle can erode these stratus
clouds will dictate the timing and intensity of Monday`s
convective weather event. All severe parameters are coming into
alignment, accompanied by rather extreme shear profiles for
early August. A robust shortwave tracking from the Upper Great
Lakes will arrive during the peak in the diurnal heating cycle.
Further, between 18Z Monday and 06Z Tuesday, 12-hour height
falls are likely to run between 5-7 dm which is impressive for
the time of year. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted
the entire area in an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms.
While the main threat is damaging to locally destructive winds,
a few tornadoes and large hail reports are also possible. If
convection is able to thrive into the mid/late evening, an
increasing low-level jet will lead to enlarged 0-1 km
hodographs. This would support some degree of tornado risk if
the event persists.

An additional issue will be the risk for flash flooding given
the threat for 1-2 inches of rainfall, locally up to 3-5
inches. The HREF signal really jumps off the charts with some of
the Day 2 totals noted in a few of its ensemble members.
Depending on how this evening`s convection pans out, this will
dictate areas which would be vulnerable to additional heavy
rainfall.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Rain today may depress the threat for severe wx tomorrow. 

[Terpeast]

Pretty thick clouds but nothing on radar. I’ll gladly take a miss today if it means getting hosed down tomorrow, in the literal sense

[Eskimo Joe]

According to the IEMbot archives, only 6/13/2013 was the other time that a portion of Maryland was under a 45% Day 2 wind contour.

[yoda]

Some real impressive soundings coming out from both the 18z NAM and 18z NAM NEST tomorrow evening across the region, particularly approaching the i95 corridor as get closer to 00z