2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Rtd208]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I thought they were always on a break? 

[09-10 analogy]

15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Nice to know even the best in the business are still wx nerds at the core. 

I like the juxtaposition of "hurricane operations" with ALL the staff looking out the window at what was probably the definitive "garden-variety" thunderstorm. Thankfully there were no category 5s crawling up the Eastern Seaboard at the time. Actually, thinking about it, that would make an even better picture: Hurricane Iago, still at Cat 4 strength, ravaging the Bay, and all the mets are looking out the window at it rather than at their workstations. 

 

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Nice to know even the best in the business are still wx nerds at the core. 

I like the juxtaposition of "hurricane operations" with ALL the staff looking out the window at what was probably the definitive "garden-variety" thunderstorm. Thankfully there were no category 5s crawling up the Eastern Seaboard at the time. Actually, thinking about it, that would make an even better picture: Hurricane Iago, still at Cat 4 strength, ravaging the Bay, and all the mets are looking out the window at it rather than at their workstations. 

 

It's really one of the coolest parts about meteorology - the people in the professional *typically* truly have a passion and love what they do. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Entire area placed under a MRGL risk for today and "heavy rain and gusty winds" have been added to my P&C for today. 

 

Also - entire area put under a SLGT risk for D3 - 

Fairly widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing across the
   Upper Ohio Valley area, and into portions of the Mid
   South/Southeast, at the start of the period.  The convection, and
   associated cloud cover, will likely hinder/modulate destabilization
   in some areas.  Still, as short-wave troughing, within the base of
   broader-scale eastern U.S. cyclonic flow, advances eastward and
   takes on a negative tilt with time, convective
   redevelopment/intensification is expected.

   Accompanying the short-wave trough, enhanced cyclonic flow through a
   deep tropospheric layer is forecast to expand in an arcing manner
   from the Plains, into the Mid-South/Southeast, and into/across the
   Atlantic Coast states.  This broad zone of moderately strong
   deep-layer quasi-unidirectional flow suggests potential for
   fast-moving storms/storm clusters, and accompanying risk for
   damaging winds, and some hail.  While diminishing somewhat
   diurnally, wind risk will likely continue locally into the overnight
   hours.

[mappy]

Thunder in Parkton

[osfan24]

Thunder here as well. Storms be poppin!

[Eskimo Joe]

Sunday is slightly intriguing for heavy rainfall potential. Particularly DC and points North and East. Might see a Mod Risk from WPC pop up for Sunday into Monday.

[AmericanWxFreak]

Legit storm in Jessup - Biblical rains. Good wind and voltage too. 

[Herb@MAWS]

Nice Columbia storm began approx 11:45. About 1/2" so far at 12:10, still pouring. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

4 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

Nice Columbia storm began approx 11:45. About 1/2" so far at 12:10, still pouring. 

Pushing between 1-2” here to the SE 

[mappy]

quick .15" with more building behind it coming out of PA

[Kmlwx]

Lots of thunder (a few close strikes it seemed) here in Colesville with those storms as they moved through. Soupy out there...but at least it brought the temp down a bit. 

[09-10 analogy]

50 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Legit storm in Jessup - Biblical rains. Good wind and voltage too. 

"Voltage": good way to refer to lightning. Can I steal it?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A big storm here in Fallston, many lighting bolts, lots of booms. Maybe 25+ less than 1 mile strikes. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

29 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

"Voltage": good way to refer to lightning. Can I steal it?

Please lol 

[Stormfly]

Very serious CG here.  Best IMBY since August 17, 2017.
Deluge too, street flooding in Jarrettsville.

Video below from my front porch.  It was a gully washer!  The dormer (roof) valleys were skipping over the gutters and hammering the ground like a legit 3" fire hose.  Garden looks like a swamp.

And it was legit severe because we had hail mostly moth balls but a few ping pong balls (!) in the yard.

Man this blew up out of nowhere.

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It kind of irks me that they always have predictability too low on Days 4-8 forecast. See a trough, and forecast out ahead of it.. They bust like crazy. Low risk is 15%, which rarely happens. 

[snowfan]

Later in the day tomorrow looks active.

 

[Kmlwx]

Plenty of modeling showing the unicorn "solid" squall line type setup tomorrow that we've been missing. If I was judging off of sim reflectivity alone - this is the most pumped I've been for a potential event this year so far. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Tomorrow definitely has some potential, though I'm more interested in the flooding risk. 

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Tomorrow definitely has some potential, though I'm more interested in the flooding risk. 

The usual failure modes (crapvection in the morning or clouds) of course apply - but it's nice seeing the modeling in somewhat good agreement (better than I can remember this year. There ARE of course variations - but HRRR (long range), NAM nest, FV3 and even the ARW ARW2 models all seem to move storms through - HRRR and NAM seemed most impressive. 

[Kmlwx]

12z runs are continuing to look good. NAM nest blows up some convection over the bay relatively early which then seems to mute the activity for the afternoon - but it's still pretty good. 12z HRRR still on board with a more or less solid line of convection. The MPAS models from NSSL also look quite good. 

[Kmlwx]

The 12z FV3 hi-res is showing areas north of the Potomac being favored until the line gets to just past DC and then favoring south and east. A bit of a screw zone in between near Anne Arundel Co and then over to the northern half of the eastern shore. Still...in the realm of model runs it looks pretty good. 

12z ARW is a messy evolution with junky stuff developing before any solid line can form. 

12z ARW2 favors northern Maryland into PA with a solid line. 

[high risk]

Finally seem to be getting consensus now on a single line impacting much of the area, or at least from Alexandria or so northward.     Looks like an early show, with the line initiating near the I-81 corridor by late morning and rolling into the DC metro area sometime between 1 and 3pm.    The lack of lead convection increases the severe threat, and there is probably enough deep layer shear to justify the SLGT risk, although the lack of shear in the sfc-4 km depth might temper the threat a bit.

With only one round of convection, and it progged to be progressive, the flash flood threat is a bit lower than initially thought.    That said, 2" PW values will create torrential downpours, and the areas that are soggy from the past few days will likely have problems.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Early morning CAMs seem pretty progressive. Seems like we can put the flood risk to bed. More of a scattered wind threat today.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Need to take a break from the rain, and build instability over several days if we are to see another good severe wx threat. 

[Kmlwx]

Mean looking sky in Odenton, MD right now - but nothing severe.

[osfan24]

Pretty big severe bust today regionwide.

[vastateofmind]

50 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Pretty big severe bust today regionwide.

Seems like. I was in that ole familiar "DC split." Anyone have thoughts on later action, moving east out of WV?