aldie 22 Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Been a pretty disappointing run here with zero rain for quite some time. Today looks to be the same...seems like a dead zone. Meh...hopefully a hurricane hits soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 96/71 IMBY currently. Clear blue sky right now, but that Warrenton cell is taking a direct bead on us here in SE FfxCo, so we'll see....think I I can just see the storm moving in on horizon. Gonna run out quick to do one last front yard mow to last through tomorrow...clover has been thick as thieves this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 Some interesting storm motions this afternoon... Activity near CHO seems to be going more NE than E. Activity near Manassas is heading almost due east. There's also a little shower N of Madison, VA that is heading more NE. Still a pretty quiet radar for many areas. Locally it seems S of US 50/I-66 and then perhaps along and N of I-70 might be the places to be...with some dead area in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 SPC mesoanalysis has a local min of instability in Northern Virginia and parts of Central and N Central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 I want a good shot of a shelf. Been awhile. Decent chance this evening. In a local chasing mood. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 FWIW, no changes on the 20z SPC OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Looks like the Hagerstown activity is Baltimore's only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like the Hagerstown activity is Baltimore's only hope. My weenie wishful thinking is hoping that activity from SSW of Romney, WV up into PA can congeal and give us a decent line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 22 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Some interesting storm motions this afternoon... Activity near CHO seems to be going more NE than E. Activity near Manassas is heading almost due east. There's also a little shower N of Madison, VA that is heading more NE. Still a pretty quiet radar for many areas. Locally it seems S of US 50/I-66 and then perhaps along and N of I-70 might be the places to be...with some dead area in between. I noticed this kind of "variable" atmospheric movement yesterday afternoon/evening, after we had the big clearing (during the actual STW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like the Hagerstown activity is Baltimore's only hope. So, Baltimore to Bel Air has done pretty well the last day or two, haven't they? At least...that's what I thought I saw on radar in past 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: So, Baltimore to Bel Air has done pretty well the last day or two, haven't they? At least...that's what I thought I saw on radar in past 48 hours. Just showers with some rumbles of thunder. Good for the plants and the lawn is bouncing back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Latest AFD from Mount Holly on the threat for severe- For tonight, the main player is the main larger shortwave and smaller impulses of energy rotating around it. One weak embedded shortwave and vort-max is located over western West Virginia at present, heading northeastward toward us, while another is over northeastern Pennsylvania moving likewise. CAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range and shear of 20-30 kts will thus likely result in an early band of strong to severe storms over the northern areas this afternoon, followed by another band forming to our southwest and moving across the area this evening. This is why we have a northern watch extending only to 8PM in the north and until 10 PM further south. Some guidance, notably the CAMS, suggest a minimum of activity in the middle of the CWA, near the I-195/PA Turnpike corridors possibly up towards I-78. Don`t feel confident to put a gap in the watches, but if there is a minimum over the middle of the CWA, won`t be surprised. Main threat this evening is damaging winds with clusters and supercells producing winds of 60-70 mph. Some hail is also possible, and an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out, but overall the risk looks lower than it did for yesterday. We`ll also have to watch the flash flood threat, with any cells moving over the urban corridor having a decent potential for at least nuisance flooding, but right now storm motion looks like it will strong enough to preclude a flood watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: So, Baltimore to Bel Air has done pretty well the last day or two, haven't they? At least...that's what I thought I saw on radar in past 48 hours. The I-795 corridor could use a good soaker. I transplanted a bunch of plants today and they need a ood soaking. The sprinkler can only do so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 I completely understand the lack of trust in the guidance, given the past few days, but the HRRR wants to light up the DC-Baltimore corridor between 5PM and 10PM in the last two cycles. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Trying to find hope between Rt50 and I-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 This first round by no means meets severe criteria....but we are getting a good steady, but not too hard, soaking rain out of it. Good Lord, the lawns need it. And yeah, I finished the last 10 min mowing the front lawn in the increasingly steady rain, but it's worth it....glad to get this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Trying to find hope between Rt50 and I-70 My earlier call of nothing between those corridors is still looking good. Though I still think it's possible something fires on boundaries later - maybe an outflow from the northern stuff or the southern stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 There are definitely some boundaries of sorts apparent in the various terminal radar imagery. Seems a C shaped boundary in western Montgomery Co, as well as some semblance of a bay breeze and something working it's way up through PG/AACo etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Drinking a 120 and waiting for my storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 There's a little cell near Haymarket that could make it into the NW DC or Southern MoCo areas if it intensifies or holds. It seems to be forming along a faint boundary to the north of the existing storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Drinking a 120 and waiting for my storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 You can certainly see where the train tracks are set up on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 Storm heading for Woodbridge is going to get warned soon, probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: You can certainly see where the train tracks are set up on radar Those 2 supercells on the track to the south of DC look pretty impressive. Need some congealing into a linear line or else it will be pretty isolated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 47 minutes ago, high risk said: I completely understand the lack of trust in the guidance, given the past few days, but the HRRR wants to light up the DC-Baltimore corridor between 5PM and 10PM in the last two cycles. P&C has been abysmal of late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 ProbSevere CIMMS product is way more enthused about the PW cell versus the previously warned one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 On the southern edge of the PW cell. Heavy rain, wild cloud formations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Looking SSE toward Alexandria. Not that impressive - was hoping to get a pretty good shot of a storm at least once before I move into a lower story building in late August. Still got a few more weeks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looking SSE toward Alexandria. Not that impressive - was hoping to get a pretty good shot of a storm at least once before I move into a lower story building in late August. Still got a few more weeks! GREAT pic!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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