coolio Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Maybe just CYA. A lot of people out and about, BBQs, July 4th etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 43 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Strange looking radar the past 20 minutes or so. Regardless of exactly why, seems like these storms are struggling to take off suns out. Rainbow at least lol Arguably, the best part are the breezes left in the wake of the small cells that went to our NE. Soooo nice sitting in backyard right now, under the clearest/bluest skies we've had all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 SPC Mesoanalysis shows > 3500 SBCAPE and > 30 kts of bulk shear. Are we just failing to get a reliable lifting mechanism? That little boundary that passed through seemed to act as one, but the cells still had trouble surviving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 I haven't looked at any soundings - but given the high SBCAPE - I'd assume it's a cap or not a defined source of lift. Lame day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: SPC Mesoanalysis shows > 3500 SBCAPE and > 30 kts of bulk shear. Are we just failing to get a reliable lifting mechanism? That little boundary that passed through seemed to act as one, but the cells still had trouble surviving. We're so gonna waste solid parameters because of no lifting mechanism. We almost always fail somehow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Storm to the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: SPC Mesoanalysis shows > 3500 SBCAPE and > 30 kts of bulk shear. Are we just failing to get a reliable lifting mechanism? That little boundary that passed through seemed to act as one, but the cells still had trouble surviving. We often blame mid-level lapse rates, and today seems to be no exception. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 Strong source of lift (ex: defined frontal passage) likely would have made up for poor mid-level lapse rates - but seems today we have neither of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Strong source of lift (ex: defined frontal passage) likely would have made up for poor mid-level lapse rates - but seems today we have neither of those 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Seems we will continue to wait for our once in a decade (or longer) alignment of EML, shear etc. I'd even settle for a non-EML robust cold pool event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Some booms to my SSE (Harford county), nice building cumulus, partly sunny. It just rained 3 hours ago. We are drought busting like crazy. For now on, take months of below average rainfall as instability in the Spring/Summer. Although, if it wasn't El Nino, I don't know that we would be getting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 still trying... decent looking cell just popped up quickly in the Rockville area, may or may not have been influenced by a boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 39 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Seems we will continue to wait for our once in a decade (or longer) alignment of EML, shear etc. I'd even settle for a non-EML robust cold pool event. When did that happen last, in your opinion? I know it's a totally subjective question. Please don't say "never." Offhand, I don't have a clue what the BRN or low-level shear was for the derecho; I know CAPE (j/kg-1) values were something ungodly, like 5500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Not much rain but lightning struck my neighbor’s tree. I wasn’t home but scared the shit out of my son and our cats. Debris picture. Now a lot of booms from that big cell to my east. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 19 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said: When did that happen last, in your opinion? I know it's a totally subjective question. Please don't say "never." Offhand, I don't have a clue what the BRN or low-level shear was for the derecho; I know CAPE (j/kg-1) values were something ungodly, like 5500. Really June 2012 may have been the last truly area-wide significant severe event. Any one location has had other occurrences since then (would have to look at specific dates) - maybe 2016 had a few good area-wide events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Baltimore City cell has significant downburst signature. Also looks like a bit of a right mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Really June 2012 may have been the last truly area-wide significant severe event. Any one location has had other occurrences since then (would have to look at specific dates) - maybe 2016 had a few good area-wide events? IMO, June 13, 2013: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20130613 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Under a severe thunderstorm warning but nothing severe at all. Heavy rain with lots of thunder but no wind at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: IMO, June 13, 2013: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20130613 Can't believe I forgot about that one - would tend to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Can't believe I forgot about that one - would tend to agree. When you get damage reports out of Carroll County, you know it's a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Not quite hitting severe where I am. 40mph 5.8"/hr rain is the peak so far. Zero visibility it’s coming down so fast. Already got 0.30" rain and am about half way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 CAMs look disappointing for the overnight. Looks like that's all she wrote folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Some rain with 2nd cluster of clouds. Areas that didn't see so much so far might do better tomorrow. I like this front moving across the Midwest ~7/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Warned storm here. Plenty of thunder and gusty winds but right on the edge of it. Nice downpour now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Warned storm here. Plenty of thunder and gusty winds but right on the edge of it. Nice downpour now. The worst of it passed just to the NE. Picked up a quick 0.15" with some good cracks of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Can't believe I forgot about that one - would tend to agree. I hated that event. Was likely to be a pretty big day, but a dying derecho rolled through during the early morning. It still had enough punch for some wind events in northern MD, but its main contribution to the day was to severely reduce the instability. A small complex with an embedded supercell actually tracked across Montgomery County during the mid and late afternoon with a fairly long-track (but overall weak) tornado, while another derecho tracked through the southern half of VA, far southern MD, and NC. Without the lead dying derecho, it would have been a pretty massive afternoon in the DC/Baltimore area too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Storm to the east Underneath of that is hellI. is that over 30,000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 I got pounded three times in 2010 with 70+ gusts and have not reached 70 since. Even derecho was 60-65. Lots of tree damage with first one in 2010 . and Kenny wasn’t that late June ? one where Brookside Gardens had 90moh gusts? There was a plaque over there about it at one time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: IMO, June 13, 2013: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20130613 That’s the storm that dropped a tornado on my parent’s back yard, taking down 2 30"+ diameter trees parallel to their house and topping another 30" diameter tree. June 13, 2013: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 We try again today lol... 2/15/15 from SPC with talk of a few supercells possible Morning AFD from LWX below: For the rest of today through tonight, an upper-level trough will slide through the Ohio Valley into New England while high pressure remains offshore. A south to southwest flow will continue to usher in very warm and humid conditions to the area. There should be enough breaks of sunshine this morning, and also behind the aforementioned MCV this afternoon for the atmosphere to destabilize. Latest guidance shows around 1.5-3 KJ/KG of MLCAPE developing ahead of a weak cold front/surface trough that will most likely move into the area later this afternoon into this evening from the west (associated with upper-level trough axis to our north). The moderate CAPE will combine with stronger shear profiles, increasing the threat for some severe storms with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary threats. However, the low-level flow may be backed somewhat, increasing low-level shear, so an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The best chance for severe storms and an isolated tornado will be around mid afternoon through this evening near and east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains (where instability will be highest east of the weak cold front/surface trough). When comparing the atmosphere to yesterday thermodynamically, it is similar. There was a small stable layer along with mid- level clouds at times that caused convection to be more sporadic. There is a similar setup today, but it does appear that the low-level forcing will be a bit stronger with the weak boundary moving in. Therefore, we went areal with the pops with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (highest pops near/east of Blue Ridge and Catoctins). Convection should wane later tonight with the loss of daytime heating. Warm and humid conditions will persist with patchy fog possible, especially in areas that do receive rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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