southmdwatcher Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 And the DC area is back under a slight risk at 20Z from the SPC...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 Nothing on radar, but clouds are darkening overhead. Dc metro might see something fire up soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 Storms seem to be collapsing as they approach Central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 00z HRRR looks decent for two rounds tomorrow between 18z and 01z And around 18z to 22z MON as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 44 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z HRRR looks decent for two rounds tomorrow between 18z and 01z And around 18z to 22z MON as well Let's hope it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Let's hope it's right 00z NAM NEST also has two rounds between 18z and 02z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Sign me up for today's 12Z HRRR. Round 1 with severe chances later this afternoon, round 2 of noisy storms late tonight, and round 3 with severe chances later tomorrow. Most of the CAMs are bullish for later today. While mid-level lapse rates aren't awesome, they're sufficient, and the deep-layer shear is seasonably strong. Could be a decent coverage of wind reports. HRRR is an outlier for the late night MCS, so I'll assume for now that it's unlikely. Shear isn't as strong Monday afternoon, so SVR would be more scattered, but the shear looks to still be sufficient for storm organization. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 1 hour ago, high risk said: Sign me up for today's 12Z HRRR. Round 1 with severe chances later this afternoon, round 2 of noisy storms late tonight, and round 3 with severe chances later tomorrow. Most of the CAMs are bullish for later today. While mid-level lapse rates aren't awesome, they're sufficient, and the deep-layer shear is seasonably strong. Could be a decent coverage of wind reports. HRRR is an outlier for the late night MCS, so I'll assume for now that it's unlikely. Shear isn't as strong Monday afternoon, so SVR would be more scattered, but the shear looks to still be sufficient for storm organization. I like the UH signature right through the DC Beltway on the 12z NAM nest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 5 hours ago, high risk said: Sign me up for today's 12Z HRRR. Round 1 with severe chances later this afternoon, round 2 of noisy storms late tonight, and round 3 with severe chances later tomorrow. Most of the CAMs are bullish for later today. While mid-level lapse rates aren't awesome, they're sufficient, and the deep-layer shear is seasonably strong. Could be a decent coverage of wind reports. HRRR is an outlier for the late night MCS, so I'll assume for now that it's unlikely. Shear isn't as strong Monday afternoon, so SVR would be more scattered, but the shear looks to still be sufficient for storm organization. Not sure at all where we stand here at 20Z, but it's certainly not playing out as progged this morning. The CAMs looked great for the late afternoon period, but it's not cranking so far. The recent HRRR runs look awful, but I'm not totally sure to trust them fully, given their poor handle on the low-level moisture evolution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 9 minutes ago, high risk said: Not sure at all where we stand here at 20Z, but it's certainly not playing out as progged this morning. The CAMs looked great for the late afternoon period, but it's not cranking so far. The recent HRRR runs look awful, but I'm not totally sure to trust them fully, given their poor handle on the low-level moisture evolution. Seriously. Not sure what LWX is looking at (or smoking), but they need to adjust fire on their current forecast, at least for SE FfxCo. Sure, I could see several cell(s) potentially popping on radar before and just after sunset, especially since we're clearing out here a lot more right now, but...yeah, radar is a ghost town right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 I'll take the 18z 3km NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Showers starting to pop up from a band of agitated cumulus congestus stretching from Manassas to Alexandria. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, George BM said: Showers starting to pop up from a band of agitated cumulus congestus stretching from Manassas to Alexandria. LOL, good call...maybe a better call than LWX! Seeing that you're describing on radar, and it seems to be heading direct for Alexandia City (just to my north). Interestingly enough, I'm currently observing cumulus, at seemingly different levels, heading in at least three different directions over my patio at the moment...see, I mouthed off about the forecast, ran out and set up the patio/backyard, and I'm probably going to eat my words within the hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued till 11pm for the NE third of the region including the DC and BWI metros 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Did these cells form off an outflow boundary? Seeing something like one on Radarscope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Showers starting to pop up from a band of agitated cumulus congestus stretching from Manassas to Alexandria.Arlington cell not doing so hot. Drizzling for 3rd time today. FFX cell looks okay. Both look better this frame 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: Did these cells form off an outflow boundary? Seeing something like one on Radarscope. Definitely a boundary. Not sure what the source was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 The watch extends up past Philly to the western NJ suburbs of NYC. A couple of TOR warnings got issued for PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Reporting from fairfax, decent downpour with gusts, but no severe characteristics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Reporting from fairfax, decent downpour with gusts, but no severe characteristics Same. Just a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 95 East to the bay today. Quiet evening and night for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Skywarn has been activated anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Definitely a boundary. Not sure what the source was. Yeah - it's clear on radar but it doesn't seem like an outflow boundary - interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Strange looking radar the past 20 minutes or so. Regardless of exactly why, seems like these storms are struggling to take offsuns out. Rainbow at least lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Strange looking radar the past 20 minutes or so. Regardless of exactly why, seems like these storms are struggling to take off These cells just couldn’t maintain. I was in a good spot and got 0.09”. It clearly isn’t unstable enough right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 These cells just couldn’t maintain. I was in a good spot and got 0.09”. It clearly isn’t unstable enough right now.Can we wrangle up enough instability for the HRRR’s late-night round of storms with a few hours of sun now? Probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 That boundary just came through here with some steady breeze from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Latest HRRR (20z) is pretty abysmal for any storm chances this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Whewwwwww!! Our severe T-storm watch radar currently? I feel like the weather service been smokin a bit much since July 1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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