H2O Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 I apologize to all my DC area peeps. It’s my fault it didn’t storm. I yelled at the clouds too loudly. I hurt it’s feelings and it then said FU 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 HRRR looks semi decent for at least storms today - severity to be determined. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: HRRR looks semi decent for at least storms today - severity to be determined. Yeah, chances of more widespread storms today seem much higher. But the overall environment is far less favorable for severe: less CAPE, weaker lapse rates, and weaker shear. The one "sneaky factor" we have is a fair amount of downdraft CAPE, so perhaps if the storms organize and form a cold pool, we could get some decent gusts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: HRRR looks semi decent for at least storms today - severity to be determined. I'll take storms. Keep knocking at that rainfall deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, high risk said: Yeah, chances of more widespread storms today seem much higher. But the overall environment is far less favorable for severe: less CAPE, weaker lapse rates, and weaker shear. The one "sneaky factor" we have is a fair amount of downdraft CAPE, so perhaps if the storms organize and form a cold pool, we could get some decent gusts. DCAPE is seemingly always a factor that performs for us even in potentially marginal events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 I wouldn't be surprised if areas that got no rain yesterday gets it today, and vice versa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: I wouldn't be surprised if areas that got no rain yesterday gets it today, and vice versa. Keep talking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 More overcast to damp things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 On 6/26/2023 at 7:45 AM, aldie 22 said: For my area today feels like one of those probably not kind of days. My money is on Tuesday actually for any significant rain....severe doesn't seem likely IMBY Hoping i was correct with this guess yesterday so far i'm half right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 LWX seems a little late with their morning update. Gun shy about this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: LWX seems a little late with their morning update. Gun shy about this afternoon? Just came out Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1027 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2023 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81, WHILE THEY ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY TO THE WEST OF I-81. SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH AND NEAR BALTIMORE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND ARE EXITING INTO NORTHERN DELAWARE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PENDLETON AND SOUTHERN HARDY COUNTIES. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EAST OF I-81 AND A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR THIS AREA AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, ADDITIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG I-81 BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND 7 OR 8 PM, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE DC/BALTIMORE METROS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH, ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE (25 KNOTS OR LESS UP TO THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL). THERMODYNAMICALLY SPEAKING, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL- MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER, WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT THEN DEEP SATURATION ABOVE THE LCL. THIS DEEP SATURATION WILL LIMIT DCAPE AND RESULTANT EVAPORATIVELY DRIVEN DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. FLOODING POTENTIAL ALSO LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW TO NEAR ZERO, AS STORMS WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE, AND MOVE ON TOWARD THE EAST AT A DECENT CLIP. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just came out Yeah, it seemed they carried over the previous AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 4.5” Wilmington DE overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 27 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: 4.5” Wilmington DE overnight Very impressive. Seems Mt. Holly's forecast area always jackpots these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Very impressive. Seems Mt. Holly's forecast area always jackpots these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: except for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 Meh, mostly a bust for our area. Cells struggled as they came off high terrain over N Va and most of MD. Needed a bit more BL moisture to avoid it being partially mixed out in the PM hours. Where that was available, they did pretty well. Ironically, we'll probably get better storm coverage today with higher quality BL moisture and direct forcing from the upper trough. Shear is light, so shorter-lived multicells only. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Meh, mostly a bust for our area. Cells struggled as they came off high terrain over N Va and most of MD. Needed a bit more BL moisture to avoid it being partially mixed out in the PM hours. Where that was available, they did pretty well. Ironically, we'll probably get better storm coverage today with higher quality BL moisture and direct forcing from the upper trough. Shear is light, so shorter-lived multicells only. It is interesting that there were several "gaps". It wasn't only DC, but the VA/NC border, the NC/SC border, and NE PA. These are things that are just simply unpredictable at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: It is interesting that there were several "gaps". It wasn't only DC, but the VA/NC border, the NC/SC border, and NE PA. These are things that are just simply unpredictable at this point. Feels like the days of linear storms along a boundary are gone. The proliferation of taco bells is the problem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Feels like the days of linear storms along a boundary are gone. The proliferation of taco bells is the problem Really it's just because you yelled. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 PWS picking up lightning now. 5 strikes so far today. At least we'll get some rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 Despite the terminal radars, not having the KLWX radar has been a major detriment. Nonetheless - looking at the KDOX radar seems to show a decent (albeit messy) cluster of storms forming. Seems many areas that missed out yesterday should at least pickup some thunder and rainfall if sub-severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Despite the terminal radars, not having the KLWX radar has been a major detriment. Nonetheless - looking at the KDOX radar seems to show a decent (albeit messy) cluster of storms forming. Seems many areas that missed out yesterday should at least pickup some thunder and rainfall if sub-severe. That cell that just went through Gainesville looks healthy...seems to be aiming directly at central/north FfxCo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 4 hours ago, mappy said: except for you Definitely a bit of a hole here the last month. @WxUSAF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 36 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Despite the terminal radars, not having the KLWX radar has been a major detriment. Nonetheless - looking at the KDOX radar seems to show a decent (albeit messy) cluster of storms forming. Seems many areas that missed out yesterday should at least pickup some thunder and rainfall if sub-severe. We are so very fortunate to have a dense network of environmental observations systems in this part of the country. Radar, satellite, stream gages, volunteer weather spotters/observers, trained meteorologists, a Delmarva mesonet, and soon a mesonet in Maryland. This multi-layered approach mitigates risk when one system is unavailable. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: We are so very fortunate to have a dense network of environmental observations systems in this part of the country. Radar, satellite, stream gages, volunteer weather spotters/observers, trained meteorologists, a Delmarva mesonet, and soon a mesonet in Maryland. This multi-layered approach mitigates risk when one system is unavailable. 100% agreed. Despite the other radars being obviously worse than LWX for many areas - it is great having so many failovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 The NoVA cell/complex looks pretty fierce on the KDOX radar - looks good on the terminal radars as well. KAKQ is showing 40,000ft tops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 Let’s go! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Let’s go! What an awesome location for a camera mount!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 cell developing just to the NE of Laytonsville, moving ENE, just missed me of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now