jewell2188 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 It would seem we will find a way to fail today!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Per the LWX AFD, looks like the MCS in Tennessee has killed off any chance of an EML: Quote .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 945 AM UPDATE: VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FURTHER WEST MOVING EAST BUT BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST TD'S DROPPING INTO THE 50S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE INCLINATION IS THAT THEY MAY MORESO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A SURFACE TROUGH CONVECTIVE INITIATION ELEMENT ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE FURTHER EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A DECAYING MCV ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING MAY LIMIT LAPSE RATES FURTHER NORTH INTO THE LWX AREA (SLIGHTLY WEAKENED HAIL SIGNAL) WHILE MAINTAINING STRONGER VALUES FURTHER SOUTH INTO AKQ/RAH'S TERRITORIES. A SCHEDULED 18Z SPECI RAOB LAUNCH WILL LIKELY ASSIST IN EVALUATING SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CONTINUES TO RUN PARALLEL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. Latest SPC meso analysis seems to confirm this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Idk where you all are feeling any "dry" air or winds. It feels like soup out here in Baltimore. It's mid-morning and the Temp is in the 80s with dew in the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 2 hours ago, mappy said: So on the flip side, if they didn't make those comments and it did end up being a really bad severe day, media would never hear the end of the complaints. Forecasters really can't win...like literally there will be complaints either way, lol Been like that for years, haha For some reason some can't seem to grasp the inherent unpredictability of weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Cirrus clouds are back. I understand why some are having doubts on today. Really tough situation for forecasters. If they portray this as just another summer day with a chance of tstorms and they overperform, they're going to get hell for underplaying it. OTOH they talk up the severe and it underperforms, they'll be seen as the boy who cried wolf... and lives might get lost the next time a severe event actually verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Cirrus clouds are back. I understand why some are having doubts on today. Really tough situation for forecasters. If they portray this as just another summer day with a chance of tstorms and they overperform, they're going to get hell for underplaying it. OTOH they talk up the severe and it underperforms, they'll be seen as the boy who cried wolf... and lives might get lost the next time a severe event actually verifies. Really a no-win situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 If nothing else - DCAPE is starting to crank up over Central Maryland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Still super humid out there! 86/73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 a decaying system always works in our favor, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: HRRR is still pretty meh The way that the HRRR mixes out the low-level moisture this afternoon makes it impossible for that model to generate any substantial convection. What alarms me now is that most of the other CAMs made a big jump this morning to mix a lot more strongly. They're overall not to HRRR levels, but it's significant, and their simulated reflectivities look really discouraging. The 12Z IAD raob has a LOT of dry air just above the boundary layer, way more than progged in recent days. So the idea of mixing leading to low-level drying may very well be legitimate. Let's watch the evolution of surface dew points over the next few hours and wait for the 18Z raob. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 @high risk - definitely a wait and see kind of thing but I have noticed a really big change in the sim reflectivity maps for much of the modeling for the greater DC area. It almost looks like the better chance of storms is tomorrow on the NAM nest for some of us. Oddly enough - there was some indicating in CIPS guidance that tomorrow would be a stronger event. Would be funny if that happened. Horribly boring stretch we are in if these few days fail - other than smoke we have had barely a thing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 32 minutes ago, mappy said: a decaying system always works in our favor, right? We're also really good at closed lows over the GL region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Clouds have really filtered back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Cloudy again, but currently 85/70 at Ft. Belvoir. Feels pretty gross out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Right on cue for maximum daytime heating...clouds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 I'm glad we didn't elevate this beyond Yoda level on the @WxWatcher007 scale. Does this mean we outperform SPC?!?! We'll see the final answer by later on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 14 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Cloudy again, but currently 85/70 at Ft. Belvoir. Feels pretty gross out there. Feels like a steam shower out there even with the clouds rolled in. One thing I knew was certain - this thread would be full of complaints before the line of storms even formed. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Feels like a steam shower out there even with the clouds rolled in. One thing I knew was certain - this thread would be full of complaints before the line of storms even formed. Just wait until Owings Mills and Baltimore city get a 2” deluge and I get skipped. Cloudy now after some sun this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 ENH risk nudged westward a tad on 1630z OTLK towards i81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, yoda said: ENH risk nudged westward a tad on 1630z OTLK towards i81 corridor Pretty abysmal hail risk in our region now on the probs, however. Enhanced for wind still, of course. The SPC discussion is a little meh worthy honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 95% watch possible on the new MD just issued by SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 minute ago, mappy said: 95% watch possible on the new MD just issued by SPC Bold probs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Bold probs! yeah, but its such a large area under the MD, it's hard to say how great it will be for us. SPC discussion on it isn't super great for us. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to continue developing across the higher terrain of the Appalachians, and perhaps the surface lee trough, as weak ascent associated with an upper trough/low centered over the Great Lakes overspreads the Mid-Atlantic. Convection is already ongoing across parts of PA and western/southern NY, with a measured severe gust recently recorded at KDKK in far western NY. Weaker forcing across the Carolinas casts some uncertainty regarding overall thunderstorm coverage with southward extent. Better mid-level flow around the base of the upper trough/low should tend to remain over the Carolinas through the day. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across NC/SC will support some threat for supercells and large hail with initial development. Across the Mid-Atlantic, effective bulk shear should be somewhat weaker, generally in the 20-30 kt range. Mainly multicells/clusters should be the dominant mode across this region, with perhaps isolated/marginal supercells possible. Wherever enough clearing can occur to promote steep low-level lapse rates, a threat for damaging downdraft winds will exist. Multiple corridors of potentially greater coverage of scattered to numerous damaging gusts are evident based on observational and short-term guidance trends. One such possible corridor is across eastern PA into NJ. Multiple Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be needed this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas to address the increasing threat for damaging winds and severe hail. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 It's almost like a pity meso disguised as a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Drier air starting to mix down. Dews down to 67 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 At work in Potomac/Rockville - but PWS at home is showing 81.7 temp and 72.2 dew. At least for the moment - MBY at home is still okay on the dew side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 84/72 cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 lot of CU out west, shame we have stupid clouds now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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