mappy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, toolsheds said: Nice long crack, then rumble of thunder. Nice! Just started raining here, but bulk of the precip is still to my west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 36 minutes ago, toolsheds said: Nice long crack, then rumble of thunder. So somebody big just passed gas? *Banishes himself to the elementary corner* 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Storm impacting Baltimore is SVR warned, for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 A flash and thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Storm impacting Baltimore is SVR warned, for some reason. I was outside watching all the eagles flying around in the wind and then I heard the front coming in was pretty loud, one little bit of thunder and then it roared through here at 40 mph 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, mappy said: should be on your doorstep soon. will be interesting to know if there is hail associated with it I had some nice lightning, wind and pea size hail for about 3 minutes. Fun storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 23 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I had some nice lightning, wind and pea size hail for about 3 minutes. Fun storm. Make sure you count it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Tornado warned supercell in NJ right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 hours ago, George BM said: Tornado warned supercell in NJ right now. Beware the February Mid Altantic MRGL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I had no idea there was weather yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 20 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Storm impacting Baltimore is SVR warned, for some reason. Multiple M0.88" hail reports and 0.5° velocity readings all signaled severe threat. 100% should have been warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 EF-2 tornado in NJ yesterday 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 ▲That's actually quite the spinner for that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Very active late February/early March period forecast to occur; perhaps we can sneak some of that up there? And, yeah, an EF2 in New Jersey in February is pretty impressive. Mercer also had an EF2 in 2021, and then there was the Ida outbreak a month later. New Jersey is the new Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 This topic will get much more active this week after we let go of the snow chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Seems as if Friday severe potential around here — such as it was— is evaporating as quickly as the winter storm potential did a few days ago. I’m sure we’ll get 5 or 6 Wind Advisories in the next week or two, though. Maybe a Dense Fog Advisory as well, to make things really memorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, 09-10 analogy said: Seems as if Friday severe potential around here — such as it was— is evaporating as quickly as the winter storm potential did a few days ago. I’m sure we’ll get 5 or 6 Wind Advisories in the next week or two, though. Maybe a Dense Fog Advisory as well, to make things really memorable. I wasn't even watching it - seems any severe parameters were shunted south and east of us if anything. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Saturday maybe? From afternoon LWX AFD An embedded shortwave within the broad upper trough is expected to move into the Midwest and the Great Lakes on Saturday. The stalled cold front to the south will advance northward as a strong warm front associated the the low pressure system in the Ohio Valley approaches from the west. This feature will bring more rain showers, and possibly thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will be dependent on how quickly the cold air wedge clears out. If thunderstorm activity isn`t suppressed, there is the potential for some severe given decent CAPE and around 60 kts of shear. Current guidance keeps the area wedged in through the morning and possibly into the afternoon. High temperatures will be dependent on the timing of wedge breaking, but for now have upper 50s to low 60s for most of the area right around sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 1 hour ago, yoda said: Saturday maybe? From afternoon LWX AFD An embedded shortwave within the broad upper trough is expected to move into the Midwest and the Great Lakes on Saturday. The stalled cold front to the south will advance northward as a strong warm front associated the the low pressure system in the Ohio Valley approaches from the west. This feature will bring more rain showers, and possibly thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will be dependent on how quickly the cold air wedge clears out. If thunderstorm activity isn`t suppressed, there is the potential for some severe given decent CAPE and around 60 kts of shear. Current guidance keeps the area wedged in through the morning and possibly into the afternoon. High temperatures will be dependent on the timing of wedge breaking, but for now have upper 50s to low 60s for most of the area right around sunset. You know how these things go, @yoda - wedge will win this time of year! But maybe we pull a miracle early season thunderstorm event for our sorrows of no snow during the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: You know how these things go, @yoda - wedge will win this time of year! But maybe we pull a miracle early season thunderstorm event for our sorrows of no snow during the winter. True... but its the only interesting weather we've got for a while... at least storm-wise... so maybe we get lucky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Well surprise lol Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1143 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 MDC021-031-VAC107-240400- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230324T0400Z/ Montgomery MD-Frederick MD-Loudoun VA- 1143 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...SOUTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHEASTERN LOUDOUN COUNTIES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... At 1143 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Boyds, or near Germantown, moving southeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Germantown, Damascus, Poolesville, Ballenger Creek, Boyds, Clarksburg, Darnestown, Adamstown, Buckeystown, Barnesville, Park Mills, Dickerson, Beallsville, Dawsonville and Tuscarora. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3924 7753 3938 7738 3929 7715 3910 7734 TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 298DEG 43KT 3924 7735 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Thats a pretty decent hail core on LWX radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 25, 2023 Author Share Posted March 25, 2023 The 0z HRRR actually looks kind of interesting for along and east of 95 (mainly east...) for tomorrow PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 MRGL risk up from SPC for wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 27, 2023 Author Share Posted March 27, 2023 Way too far out for any clarity - but here's a little shoutout for our area in the D4-8 outlook Severe potential could continue eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Day 6/Saturday. A moist boundary-layer will exist across these areas ahead of the east/south advancing cold front. However, timing and location of the surface low and focus of strong shear/large-scale ascent is uncertain, and predictability is too low to delineate any areas at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 27, 2023 Author Share Posted March 27, 2023 By no means am I predicting anything similar...but the 500mb and surface low is not insanely dissimilar compared to April 28th, 2002 (La Plata) for this coming weekend. It even shows up as the last place ranked analog on one of the sectors on CIPS (had to go digging). GFS has the H5 pass much more positive but there's a lot of time to go. LWX had a good writeup in their afternoon discussion. I'm intrigued enough for this range...and this is a few weeks earlier than that event...but of course we are in a warmer climate since 2002 and again...H5 is not worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 It seems the models are keeping things positively tilted - 2002 was a negatively tilted trough as it went through the Great Lakes region. Again, never was saying it would be anything close to that...but the EC *was* yesterday more neutral/negative than the GFS but it seems to have gone more positive overnight. One thing that looks nice thus far is that the GFS has ample clearing on Saturday afternoon. It's still early in the season, but there could be some severe potential. We still got mentioned in the D4-8 outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: It seems the models are keeping things positively tilted - 2002 was a negatively tilted trough as it went through the Great Lakes region. Again, never was saying it would be anything close to that...but the EC *was* yesterday more neutral/negative than the GFS but it seems to have gone more positive overnight. One thing that looks nice thus far is that the GFS has ample clearing on Saturday afternoon. It's still early in the season, but there could be some severe potential. We still got mentioned in the D4-8 outlook. Not convective severe but... what else stands out to you about this skew-t profile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 That's some strong wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 in fact...GFS wind gust product has 60-65mph gusts Saturday afternoon. If we can't get severe that would be a heck of a wind event... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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