Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 Quite a bit of lightning with the activity to the west! So far radar actually looks decent despite the early timeframe. Some of the guidance weakened it and then kind of skipped it over us - but for now I remain semi interested given the current pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 Wow...the 10z HRRR sucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Wow...the 10z HRRR sucked. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Wow...the 10z HRRR sucked. Surprised Pikachu Dot Gif 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 You know it's bad when the most exciting weather event in recent times has been smoke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Line just collapsing to our west. Like clockwork cells are firing across NE Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Line just collapsing to our west. Like clockwork cells are firing across NE Maryland. Thinking that for DC proper and areas W of I-95 we really need to get this now junky stuff to just GTFO so we can "recover" behind the line for some isolated cells later. If this stuff takes it's time and we just stay cloudy we are probably cooked for anything decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Missing the thunder at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said: Maybe this detritus to our west will lay down some of those elusive “outflow boundaries” that could kick start whatever comes thru later. That’s severe season equivalent of “backbuilding.” Edit: I should note there seem to be some decent activity up by the Mason/Dixon ( or as my friend calls it, the Manson/Nixon) line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 FWIW (probably not much) - the 13z HRRR blew up really intense cells in the area (still favoring east but it is a marked improvement) around 19-20z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 14z HRRR continues to look decent...though it kind of favors VA and then east of DC (shocker). Encouraging that it seems to be picking up on the fact that our environment might recover a bit given the precip in the area now is really fizzling. Just gotta get this stuff outta here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 15z HRRR for this afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 Well - if we end up with nada it certainly won't be due to lack of sunshine. Plenty of sun out there now. I'd be decently intrigued if I lived in PG, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, St Mary's counties or the Eastern Shore. Perhaps even NoVA. More of a question mark for the Montgomery, Howard, Carrol Co folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 16z HRRR back to sucking locally. Shafts just about everyone unless you're south of DC - and really the best stuff goes to the Northern Neck and extreme Southern Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 And that reflects that watch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Well - if we end up with nada it certainly won't be due to lack of sunshine. Plenty of sun out there now. I'd be decently intrigued if I lived in PG, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, St Mary's counties or the Eastern Shore. Perhaps even NoVA. More of a question mark for the Montgomery, Howard, Carrol Co folks. sun only making an appearance in the last 30 minutes or so up my way, been mostly cloudy all day. didn't rain at work, but home got a little thunderstorm earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 I'll still radar-watch all afternoon - keeping an eye on the red circled stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 Looking into the long range - the CFS still seems to want to setup the potential for some NW flow stuff in the heart of July (ridge centered over the middle of the country). Would be interesting if our entire severe season was kind of shifted a month or so later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 The stuff down in VA is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 The cell N of Winchester has a hail marker on it now. Bears watching. Uptick in lightning production in that one as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The cell N of Winchester has a hail marker on it now. Bears watching. Uptick in lightning production in that one as well. Just got warned... tagged at 1.75" hail marker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 Wonder if outflow from the Winchester area storm can start to pop some other activity. So far, situation matches up pretty well with HRRR runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 cross-posting here: The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... East central Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... Southwestern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... South central Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 331 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winchester, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Charles Town, Berryville, Brucetown, Cedar Grove, Gaylord, Clear Brook, Ridgeway, Stephenson, Wadesville, Summit Point, Cedar Hill, Stringtown and Rippon.* AFFECTED AREAS: CLARKE, VA ... FREDERICK, VA ... BERKELEY, WV ... JEFFERSON, WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Severe Thunderstorm Warning VAC043-107-WVC037-162030- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0041.230616T1959Z-230616T2030Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... South central Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 358 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Berryville, or 7 miles south of Charles Town, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Purcellville, Berryville, Round Hill, Bluemont, Hamilton, Hillsboro, Paeonian Springs, Gaylord, Wickliffe, Philomont, Lincoln, Stringtown, Hughesville and Rippon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3916 7800 3923 7795 3918 7760 3902 7770 TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 294DEG 29KT 3918 7791 HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 Cell continues to look healthy. Track is not so great for me. Seems it will straddle or go just south of the Potomac. Looks good for places like Herndon - and further down the line DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Cell continues to look healthy. Track is not so great for me. Seems it will straddle or go just south of the Potomac. Looks good for places like Herndon - and further down the line DC proper. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Cell continues to look healthy. Track is not so great for me. Seems it will straddle or go just south of the Potomac. Looks good for places like Herndon - and further down the line DC proper. Looks right it made a SE turn from its prior east movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Seeing some hooking tendency on the cell and some purple showing up on Radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Ping pong ball sized hail with the storm now per trained spotters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now