Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2023 Author Share Posted August 25, 2023 It's soupy, at least...72 dewpoint here but 76 degrees for the air temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It's soupy, at least...72 dewpoint here but 76 degrees for the air temp. It feels like the morning before tropical storm makes landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Definitely cleared out here in Burke. Awaiting my derecho. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Severe warned storm headed towards the DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 I svr here. This instead. . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Severe warned storm headed towards the DC metro. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2023 Author Share Posted August 25, 2023 Northern edge might scrape me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 Maybe this dreadful heat this week will come with something of a payoff down the road. From the Sterling AFD: Thursday and Friday should bring a gradual shift in the pattern. As noted in global ensembles, the culprit is a longwave trough pushing through the Great Lakes. A lot of details need to be resolved before more accurately portraying any convective threats. However, coming off a lengthy period of hot and humid weather often yields an unsettled pattern given notable forcing mechanisms. For now, will keep shower and thunderstorm chances to close out the work week. While conditions remain on the hot side, temperatures do fall by around 4 to 8 degrees compared to earlier in the week. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 ^big heat does not go quietly into the night. September can be interesting because we get strong cold fronts with some more pronounced upper level support. What we really need though is a solid 2" - 4" of rain over a day or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^big heat does not go quietly into the night. September can be interesting because we get strong cold fronts with some more pronounced upper level support. What we really need though is a solid 2" - 4" of rain over a day or so. GL trough sounds like a continuance of the same pattern of the summer. The usual areas will get storms, and the usual areas will miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 This low pressure looks amped for severe wx chances tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 48 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This low pressure looks amped for severe wx chances tomorrow Yes, but it's progged to split and then shear out a lot tomorrow as it comes east. Instability will be good, and there may be just enough shear for a few organized cells with some wind potential, but it sure doesn't look like a big day. Hell, I'm thrilled just to have a threat of convection again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 18 minutes ago, high risk said: Yes, but it's progged to split and then shear out a lot tomorrow as it comes east. Instability will be good, and there may be just enough shear for a few organized cells with some wind potential, but it sure doesn't look like a big day. Hell, I'm thrilled just to have a threat of convection again. And of course SPC issues a SLGT right after I type that..... 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 1 hour ago, high risk said: And of course SPC issues a SLGT right after I type that..... Maybe Chuck *is* the SPC... 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Seems to be some pretty good agreement among the CAMs that the best chance of storms early tomorrow evening is over north and north-central MD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Purely from reading the discussions, it seems the progged shear today is a bit more than may have been anticipated earlier in the week? I'm sure there's a way to research that but I'm too lazy. We certainly have the juice available ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 12 hours ago, high risk said: Seems to be some pretty good agreement among the CAMs that the best chance of storms early tomorrow evening is over north and north-central MD. MBY is sitting on the southern edge of the SLGT, which always gives me some pause. Better than being on the SW edge though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JVscotch Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 I’m quite shocked how unstable it is outside already. May have the highest cape values this early compared to any other time this summer that I can remember. Even mid-level lapse rates aren’t too shabby. Shear could be better of course but definitely decent parameters in place. I haven’t really been following this event too closely outside of chance of storms/rain over several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 HRRR has barely had anything except a couple cells scraping through the northern tier for several runs in a row now. The 3k NAM continues to be much more bullish for most of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: HRRR has barely had anything except a couple cells scraping through the northern tier for several runs in a row now. The 3k NAM continues to be much more bullish for most of the area. It's also completely whiffed on the current line, whereas the 3k at least has something at 16z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: HRRR has barely had anything except a couple cells scraping through the northern tier for several runs in a row now. The 3k NAM continues to be much more bullish for most of the area. I started looking at models and was ready to say we were out of luck again.. but radar was not in sync with it! Then I saw the SPC as well. Seems we have some triggers.. can it happen? I hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 That was a pretty impressive hail core a few scans ago in E WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, yoda said: That was a pretty impressive hail core a few scans ago in E WV Yes. We have an interesting combo here, anomalous heat, decent shear and a sharp front. Kind of surprised there isn't a watch box out already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 108 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 VAC069-WVC003-065-071730- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0303.000000T0000Z-230907T1730Z/ Frederick VA-Morgan WV-Berkeley WV- 108 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MORGAN AND NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... At 108 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Greenwood, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Martinsburg, Greenwood, Berkeley, Hedgesville, Johnsons Mill, Cherry Run, Tomahawk, Glengary, Johnsontown, Omps, Shanghai, Spohrs Crossroads, Oakland, Spruce Pine Hollow, Stotlers Crossroads, Highland Ridge, Jones Springs, Valley High, Unger, and New Hope. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3968 7810 3963 7803 3960 7801 3960 7799 3952 7788 3935 7822 3946 7833 TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 227DEG 22KT 3950 7819 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. We have an interesting combo here, anomalous heat, decent shear and a sharp front. Kind of surprised there isn't a watch box out already. Watch up until 9pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 That cell west of MRB... woof Radarscope max hail size 3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, yoda said: That cell west of MRB... woof Couple of cells firing in the NW suburbs, but they appear to be struggling to maintain updrafts. Probably need to wait for the lee trough to form or the front to get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Two active warnings in Loudoun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Another warning. I am getting brushed by it but barely any rain A little mammatus 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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