Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 Interesting boundary collision happened near Travilah it looks like. Didn't result in anything thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 severe storms scattered from Delaware/Maryland to Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 The latest flash flood warning issued for SE FfxCo is personally interesting...they typically mention the areas/neighborhoods AROUND where I live (e.g., Franconia, Lincolnia, Fort Belvoir, Mount Vernon) but this time they actually included our neighborhood, Hayfield. And we are indeed having a "round two" that is rivaling yesterday afternoon...maybe not horizontal rain, but definitely diagonal, and I can fully believe the 1-3" that NWS says is possible within the next hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: The latest flash flood warning issued for SE FfxCo is personally interesting...they typically mention the areas/neighborhoods AROUND where I live (e.g., Franconia, Lincolnia, Fort Belvoir, Mount Vernon) but this time they actually included our neighborhood, Hayfield. And we are indeed having a "round two" that is rivaling yesterday afternoon...maybe not horizontal rain, but definitely diagonal, and I can fully believe the 1-3" that NWS says is possible within the next hour. I'm just on the other side of 495 right on the edge. Yesterday was the most difficult drive of my life! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: The latest flash flood warning issued for SE FfxCo is personally interesting...they typically mention the areas/neighborhoods AROUND where I live (e.g., Franconia, Lincolnia, Fort Belvoir, Mount Vernon) but this time they actually included our neighborhood, Hayfield. And we are indeed having a "round two" that is rivaling yesterday afternoon...maybe not horizontal rain, but definitely diagonal, and I can fully believe the 1-3" that NWS says is possible within the next hour. I can hear your cell grumbling from the western side of the Beltway. 0.11" today, so a miss, but we have done plenty well over the last two months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 The flood watch is absolutely justified. PWATs are in the 95th percentile regionwide, with minimal steering flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I'm just on the other side of 495 right on the edge. Yesterday was the most difficult drive of my life! Yeah, yesterday was one of the worst I've seen in the 30 or so years I've lived here...can't imagine driving in that. 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: I can hear your cell grumbling from the western side of the Beltway. 0.11" today, so a miss, but we have done plenty well over the last two months. Yeah, there was definitely some grumbling and rumbling but nothing like yesterday's laser show...dear LORD. The rain, @Eskimo Joe's point below, was impressive today....not for the direction it was falling or blowing but the sheer amount. We got a river through the backyard (has since subsided) and that rarely happens for us. 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: The flood watch is absolutely justified. PWATs are in the 95th percentile regionwide, with minimal steering flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: The flood watch is absolutely justified. PWATs are in the 95th percentile regionwide, with minimal steering flow aloft. The flood watch was absolutely justified, but due to the PWATS and existing wet ground. The storm motions off of the 12Z IAD raob were faster than 30 mph. The severe box was less justified. It verified well due to a bunch of reports at the far southern end, but most of the box was lacking in reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1105 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Charles County in southern Maryland... Southeastern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Central King George County in central Virginia... East central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 1130 PM EDT. * At 1105 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fairview Beach, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... King George, Dahlgren, Fairview Beach, Potomac Creek, Nanjemoy Creek, Popes Creek, Aquia Creek, Port Tobacco River, Passapatanzy, Stones Corner, Weedonville, Ironsides, Bel Alton, Pisgah, White Oak, Sealston, Faulkner, Berthaville, Dogue, and Marbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 can definitely hear the distant thuinder... bright flashes off to my SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Hope that line creeps NW. Doubt it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Looks like we have a chance of elevated convection/thunder w/ the main chances coming tonight/early tomorrow morning and again early Friday morning. NW-flow regime... elevated style. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 49 minutes ago, George BM said: Looks like we have a chance of elevated convection/thunder w/ the main chances coming tonight/early tomorrow morning and again early Friday morning. NW-flow regime... elevated style. There is a MRGL risk on Friday from SPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Phew. We need something to hold us over until there is a real tropical tracking event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 1 hour ago, yoda said: There is a MRGL risk on Friday from SPC That's for the afternoon cells. The morning MCS would be "regular" thunderstorms, but I hope it plays out. It's going to be an MCS party for the next 36 hours in the Mid-Atlantic - just a question of who gets invited. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Back from dropping my daughter off at uni, which is always kind of depressing. Some good storms to track and experience would help immensely with that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 2 hours ago, 09-10 analogy said: Back from dropping my daughter off at uni, which is always kind of depressing. Some good storms to track and experience would help immensely with that. Dropped #2 off last night. Luckily he is at Towson University, but still miss him. :-( #3 (my baby)is going to Drexel and they have classes on a quarter term, so I get 3 more weeks of her before she has to go. Going to be very quiet here this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 So anything interesting for tonight or nah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 3 hours ago, yoda said: So anything interesting for tonight or nah? HRRR looks boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HRRR looks boring. 12z NAM and NAM NEST didn't look too bad for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Just now, yoda said: 12z NAM and NAM NEST didn't look too bad for tonight Honestly, we could use a solid 2" - 4" soaking rain over the course of 24 hours. The hit or miss stuff thus summer hasn't done much to assuage our dry conditions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 D1 ENH for OH and far NW PA. Maybe we get remnant MCS tonight? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Violent line of storms close to derecho intensity racing east in s PA and look like they are heading for n MD within hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 3 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Violent line of storms close to derecho intensity racing east in s PA and look like they are heading for n MD within hours. Nada fir us. Not even stratiform rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 4 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Violent line of storms close to derecho intensity racing east in s PA and look like they are heading for n MD within hours. No match for the desert rain shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2023 Author Share Posted August 25, 2023 Most guidance seems to have some isolated showers/storms this afternoon...but much of the guidance for the metro area is pretty weak sauce. Not expecting anything major. Might get a rogue warning or two I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Huge swing and a miss the past two days compared to what the NAM was trying to spit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 classic playbook here: MCS dies on approach in the early morning hours but limits heating for the late afternoon show 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, high risk said: classic playbook here: MCS dies on approach in the early morning hours but limits heating for the late afternoon show I’m gonna take the under on the mid 90s heat for today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Might be some clearing around 11 - 12pm. Looking at satellite imagery 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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