2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)

[H2O]

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

Oh man @H2O under a tornado warning 

That was probably almost as bad as the derecho wind wise. Legit 50-60 winds at times with higher gusts. Lost power briefly but back on now. 
 

Went from severe warning to TOR to flood in 20 min. 
 

Also had to help two gas line contractors who got stuck in the storm because it hit fast and their car wasn’t close by. They were under a damn tree of all things. So got them under my my porch and out of the rain and wind

[H2O]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Oldmanyellsat(funnel)cloud.jpg

I was yelling something for sure. But not at the clouds. Wasn’t G rated either

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[weatherCCB]

0.41” with a heavy shower

no thunder or lightning 

[09-10 analogy]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

I don't think there were winds anything like that in upper NW but I was inside when the storm hit so didn't see the initial gust. But as (the lack of) a telltale sign, very little tree debris/leaves down -- much less branches -- on the way home thru my neighborhood. Torrential rain though.

That's at least the second time recently DCA has met/exceeded severe wind criteria. Pretty sure they did at least on 7.29; maybe some other date as well?

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

I don't think there were winds anything like that in upper NW but I was inside when the storm hit so didn't see the initial gust. But as (the lack of) a telltale sign, very little tree debris/leaves down -- much less branches -- on the way home thru my neighborhood. Torrential rain though.

That's at least the second time recently DCA has met/exceeded severe wind criteria. Pretty sure they did at least on 7.29; maybe some other date as well?

Making up for being a terrible snow observation site.

[WxWatcher007]

What a year of severe 

[MN Transplant]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What a year of severe 

We’ve had a run of later summer severe in the last several years.  It is making up for about nothing in Apr/May.

[Kmlwx]

The 23z HRRR gets northern Maryland with some activity overnight but seems it doesn't like the threat of an overnight batch as much (or at all) like some prior runs wanted to fire up. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Still some instability here in Harford Co. I wouldn't be surprised if the severe risk extends back a little west for tomorrow. 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

The 23z HRRR gets northern Maryland with some activity overnight but seems it doesn't like the threat of an overnight batch as much (or at all) like some prior runs wanted to fire up. 

      The HRRR has been pretty consistent keeping the overnight activity north of the DC area, and storms are starting to fire now in northeastern WV.     The shear tonight supports a tornado threat;  it's just unclear whether the storms will be surface-based.

[Kmlwx]

28 minutes ago, high risk said:

      The HRRR has been pretty consistent keeping the overnight activity north of the DC area, and storms are starting to fire now in northeastern WV.     The shear tonight supports a tornado threat;  it's just unclear whether the storms will be surface-based.

The cell NE of Capon Bridge already seems to have some minor rotation with it potentially. 

[high risk]

8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The cell NE of Capon Bridge already seems to have some minor rotation with it potentially. 

      Agreed.   And it should be rotating - the wind profiles definitely favor rotation, and the profiles are stronger to the east and northeast of those cells.    I just wonder if it's rooted above the boundary layer.     Would not be surprised if an MD came out for northern MD / southern PA at some point in the next couple of hours.

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Still some instability here in Harford Co. I wouldn't be surprised if the severe risk extends back a little west for tomorrow. 

   The question is does the instability get swept off to the east by the approaching cold front before storms can initiate.     The evening guidance now seems to be in fairly good agreement that storms will initiate along and maybe even slightly west of the 95 corridor by early afternoon.    Even though the best chance of organized severe will be further east (and I'm talking DC, as northeast MD is in a good spot), the shear along the I-95 corridor might support splitting supercells.

[mappy]

13 minutes ago, high risk said:

      Agreed.   And it should be rotating - the wind profiles definitely favor rotation, and the profiles are stronger to the east and northeast of those cells.    I just wonder if it's rooted above the boundary layer.     Would not be surprised if an MD came out for northern MD / southern PA at some point in the next couple of hours.

Okay so some tweets I’m seeing about sneaky overnight tornado threat is real? I am northern MD…

[Kmlwx]

The cell is now near Shanghai and looks like a mini supercell almost. 

[high risk]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

Okay so some tweets I’m seeing about sneaky overnight tornado threat is real? I am northern MD…

    I'm not sure that it's that sneaky if it's covered by an SPC 5% TOR risk.    But yes, the shear is good and getting stronger, and forcing is arriving.   The only question is whether the storms can root into the boundary layer.    I'd say that's quite uncertain.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Getting hot already, and clear skies in Bel Air, MD.

[vastateofmind]

15 hours ago, mattie g said:

That's the cell that blew the hell up right over me.

Yeah...that storm was wringing out every last ounce of moisture it could.

I'd just received the first STW yesterday that mentioned that monster was over your head and headed our way pretty quickly. Ran outside, took some armageddon sky pics to share here, had just got back to my laptop inside when the oft-reported "blinding white flash!" lit up every window on the front side of the house instantly followed by head-splitting thunder...and there went our power. Not sure where the CG hit, but it was on my property somewhere. We also had two more intense, close-by strikes on our block within 15 min after that...along with the tornado warning! We regained power in about four hours last night and (surprisingly) had zero damage in or around our house, so we got lucky. Was expecting some severe yesterday, just not a blow-up like that.

14 hours ago, H2O said:

That was probably almost as bad as the derecho wind wise. Legit 50-60 winds at times with higher gusts. Lost power briefly but back on now. 

Went from severe warning to TOR to flood in 20 min. 

Also had to help two gas line contractors who got stuck in the storm because it hit fast and their car wasn’t close by. They were under a damn tree of all things. So got them under my porch and out of the rain and wind

Between the lightning, loss of power and the rare tornado threat for these parts, I'd forgotten about the wind and rain in yesterday's storm. Heaviest rain I'd witnessed in many years, driven horizontally by the winds you mentioned. Entire front of the house and all windows on that side got a better power washing in that storm than I could've probably managed manually.

[Kmlwx]

10z HRRR almost has some signs of backbuilding/training for parts of the I-95 corridor in the 18z-01z timeframe. 

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

10z HRRR almost has some signs of backbuilding/training for parts of the I-95 corridor in the 18z-01z timeframe. 

The 0z MPAS-HT-NSSL also shows signs of this - as well as the MPAS-HN-NSSL. 

The RRFS-EMC blows up a thing that looks like a potential supercell in Prince William Co around 18z and it tracks it through DC before exiting into the Bay in Anne Arundel Co. The 6z NAM kind of showed the same thing - NoVA supercell that blows up and heads E or ENE.

[mattie g]

20 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

I'd just received the first STW yesterday that mentioned that monster was over your head and headed our way pretty quickly. Ran outside, took some armageddon sky pics to share here, had just got back to my laptop inside when the oft-reported "blinding white flash!" lit up every window on the front side of the house instantly followed by head-splitting thunder...and there went our power. Not sure where the CG hit, but it was on my property somewhere. We also had two more intense, close-by strikes on our block within 15 min after that...along with the tornado warning! We regained power in about four hours last night and (surprisingly) had zero damage in or around our house, so we got lucky. Was expecting some severe yesterday, just not a blow-up like that.

Between the lightning, loss of power and the rare tornado threat for these parts, I'd forgotten about the wind and rain in yesterday's storm. Heaviest rain I'd witnessed in many years, driven horizontally by the winds you mentioned. Entire front of the house and all windows on that side got a better power washing in that storm than I could've probably managed manually.

Would definitely love to see some pictures of the sky as that thing was dumping buckets on us. We had a few decent gusts (nothing really intense) and a bit of T&L, but the rain...man.

Sounds like a really good one IYBY, especially since the power outage didn't last for too long and you didn't have any damage!

[Kmlwx]

I'm starting to be "in" on a sneaky "lone ranger" kind of cell in the area this PM. 11z HRRR continues the idea of some training but also jumps on board with the idea of a cell blowing up and being the "dominant" one. It starts in NoVA but quickly intensifies and exits into the Bay in or around Anne Arundel County. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm telling you, it's warming up quickly this morning under clear skies. 

If a line/storms get going, there is a signal that they could maintain. Question is how far west. 

https://ibb.co/tYFJkfQ

https://ibb.co/GpSKhDt

[Kmlwx]

Slight risk includes the metro area on the 9am update. 

[Kmlwx]

14z HRRR looks good again for perhaps DC proper and then east to and across the bay. Seems it has consistently really "liked" Anne Arundel County. 

[Kmlwx]

Decent CAPE present in the SPC slight risk area. No shortage of bulk shear. DCAPE pretty good to the NW and then again well south and east - with a minimum locally. It is SOUP out there, though...

[Kmlwx]

Could be something *trying* to get bubbly near Front Royal. Nothing particularly interesting for now. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Wow. Quite a storm thru HoCo and AAco on the 16z HtripleR

 

[Kmlwx]

Little cells/showers showing up SW of Warrenton now. Would think that's the activity models have been keying in on. We'll what it does.