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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)


Kmlwx
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The SPC MCD clearly says that the wind profiles should improve into the mid-atlantic over the next few hours in response of the rapidly approaching strong upper level and soon-to-form low level jet streak. Tornadoes are definitely a threat, though clearly wind is the biggest and everyone should know that. 

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Next hour to hour and a half is key to get to convective temp. We seem to be running a few degrees too cool right now.

I don't know if you want to reach convective temp if you want to maximize severe potential here. Need shear to increase.

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   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 602
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   120 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Maryland
     Southern and Central Pennsylvania
     Virginia
     Eastern West Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A very favorable setup for severe thunderstorms including
   tornadoes and widespread damaging winds is unfolding across the
   region, with severe storms expected to steadily develop and increase
   across the region this afternoon.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 50 miles southeast of Charlottesville
   VA to 50 miles northwest of Williamsport PA. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 599...WW 600...WW 601...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 25030.

   ...Guyer
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12 minutes ago, Newman said:

The SPC MCD clearly says that the wind profiles should improve into the mid-atlantic over the next few hours in response of the rapidly approaching strong upper level and soon-to-form low level jet streak. Tornadoes are definitely a threat, though clearly wind is the biggest and everyone should know that. 

The current cells aren't moving very fast. I suspect that will keep the tor threat rather localized for now. 

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TOR Garrett County

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
126 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Garrett County in western Maryland...

* Until 200 PM EDT.

* At 126 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Terra Alta, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Oakland around 140 PM EDT.
  Accident around 155 PM EDT.
  Bittinger around 200 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Deep
Creek Lake State Park, Hutton, Swallow Falls State Park, McComas
Beach and McHenry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3959 7922 3946 7928 3941 7948 3962 7948
      3967 7933
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 253DEG 24KT 3950 7956

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
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