TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 On 8/7/2023 at 4:09 PM, yoda said: Jesus that SPS is scary Expand Ya I was like excuse me that’s first time I ever seen wording like that around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 If anyone wants more close up views of SPC images, https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/MD/ Just update the state abbreviation in the URL for VA, PA, DE, WV, etc. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Looks like all systems go for a derecho event to unfold today...though maybe would like to see a bit stronger llvl wind fields. Anyways, looks like llvl lapse rates will continue to strengthen over the next few hours with 2-6km lapse rates already on order of 7-7.5 C/KM and even some pockets of 8 C/KM. Those are pretty eye opening for a significant wind event, especially with DCAPE values up around 1000 J/KG and even some higher pockets around. A strong tornado is even possible in any discrete cell that doesn't have its updraft interfered with. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Anyone think PDS with that kind of wording? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 That LWX Special Weather Statement is a hint that they MAY have conferenced with SPC and some changes may be coming to the 1630z SPC update. Not saying definitely...but maybe an enhancement of the TOR probs. We'll see soon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 On 8/7/2023 at 4:12 PM, TSSN+ said: Anyone think PDS with that kind of wording? Expand Highly doubt it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 On 8/7/2023 at 4:08 PM, TSSN+ said: Holy hell Expand Yeah I just got that through my Carrot weather app. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 I’m mobile but MCD issued, Tor watch likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Strong tornado mentioned in the MCD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Low level clouds have really thickened here again. I don’t see any patches of blue sky atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Betting 10% hatched tor is coming on 1630z OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 On 8/7/2023 at 4:19 PM, yoda said: Betting 10% hatched tor is coming on 1630z OTLK Expand Yea probably to coincide with the hatching on the meso 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Spc is late. Expecting some changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Full sun out here on 70 south of Westminster. I'm out here in position. Bring it on, Mother Nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Discrete cell ahead of the main line in Charleston, WV. Already has "the look". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 On 8/7/2023 at 4:33 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Discrete cell ahead of the main line in Charleston, WV. Already has "the look". Expand Just saw that and mentioned it to @TSSN+, first supercell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Full sun in Rockville. Getting a little worried about likely damage around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 Refreshing the CoD SPC page like crazy... 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 On 8/7/2023 at 4:36 PM, Kmlwx said: Refreshing the CoD SPC page like crazy... Expand Same like where you at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 On 8/7/2023 at 4:36 PM, Kmlwx said: Refreshing the CoD SPC page like crazy... Expand That’s all of us Kenny. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 12z NAM bufkit profile for BWI is pretty wild. Obviously this doesn't mean anything will happen, but it shows what potential exists *should* thunderstorm updrafts be able to utilize these available ingredients. Looks like some VBV going on, but that combination of shear/CAPE is pretty scary. Hail CAPE nearly 900 J/KG. EQL too way up there. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 10 min late now on Spc update. Bueller Bueller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 Have to imagine they are coordinating/discussing with local WFOs. Have folks at work that are antsy for my midday update for them - wanted to see the 12:30 SPC update before giving them the update. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 On 8/7/2023 at 4:41 PM, Kmlwx said: Have to imagine they are coordinating/discussing with local WFOs. Expand On 8/7/2023 at 4:40 PM, TSSN+ said: 10 min late now on Spc update. Bueller Bueller? Expand Starting to wonder if they're going to go 30% tor or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 On 8/7/2023 at 4:42 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Starting to wonder if they're going to go 30% tor or something. Expand 30 seems high... maybe 15 hatched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Huh.. kept the large 10 percent with no change 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 89/74 at Fort Belvoir, full sun for about an hour now. Fun sidebar -- we just had a mini power outage of a couple seconds here in the office. I heard a couple folks on the floor above us running about, yelling, "Is this THE STORM??" Shit, people...look out your damn windows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 On 8/7/2023 at 4:42 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Starting to wonder if they're going to go 30% tor or something. Expand There’s no way they’d do that until the 20z update had ground truth with multiple TW’s and reports. Could see it happening this afternoon given the destabilization but they wouldn’t on a “whim” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 No changes that I can see on wind or hail or tor probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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