2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

We've gotta figure out where we are on the scale  

Some might argue we're at 3 but maybe we are close to a 4?!

 

We're at a three. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Impressed at the lack of mid and upper level clouds. All we have to do is burn off this low level junk and we're golden.

Can attest to that out here in Carroll Valley, sun is out pretty nicely this AM. Still those clouds associated with the decaying MCS out to the west, but there are indications we'll get the instability we'd need to produce. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Can attest to that out here in Carroll Valley, sun is out pretty nicely this AM. Still those clouds associated with the decaying MCS out to the west, but there are indications we'll get the instability we'd need to produce. 

I'm at FEMA EMI in Emmittsburg this week. We've got sun poking through and it's clear as a bell above the low level junk.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Is it clear out west along the i81 corridor right now?

Yes.  And will be all day, no doubt.  Enjoy your storms.  Again.

[Kmlwx]

As others have said - it's probable that given the synoptic forcing for later - we don't need extreme instability. I think the clearing of the low junk essentially is more of a determining factor as to whether we get something that we talk about for years versus a decent storm/iso severe day. Of course, microscale stuff could still lead to people getting missed (as is always the case) - but a total dud seems nearly off the table at this point. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm at FEMA EMI in Emmittsburg this week. We've got sun poking through and it's clear as a bell above the low level junk.

Indeed, could be a very interesting afternoon. While you're at it, don't forget your 6 of Hearts ticket at the Emmitsburg FD. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Indeed, could be a very interesting afternoon. While you're at it, don't forget your 6 of Hearts ticket at the Emmitsburg FD. 

Ott House or bust.

[Eskimo Joe]

Activity in NW WV already has CG on it. That's a good sign.

[AmericanWxFreak]

10z HRRR has some discretes move across Fred and Carroll Counties before this beast trudges through 

 

 

[TSSN+]

Starting out the morning cloudy on a severe weather day in the mid Atlantic? Check. Let’s see when these clouds burn off. 

[Eskimo Joe]

SPC already highlighted the activity in SW PA about the possibility of being the discrete stuff.

Quote

Existing storms as of 06Z Monday near the OH River will likely play a 
role into late/mid morning today.

 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Pretty wild look from the 11z HRRR

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Looking less tornado risk and more straight line risk.

[NorthArlington101]

Moderate incoming

[Eskimo Joe]

Moderate Risk incoming

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Moderate Risk incoming

45% hatched I would guess 

[mappy]

oh boy. guess i should take down the mounted deck canopy today. 

[yoda]

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Last moderate severe risk issued:
DC/Baltimore: 6/13/2013
Shenandoah Valley/Potomac Highlands: 9/18/2012
Western Maryland: 7/8/2014
Charlottesville/central VA: 4/19/2019
Highland County: 6/16/2008

[SnowenOutThere]

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

 

 

[yoda]

Um, that's a large 10% tor probs on the 1300z SPC OTLK... was not really expecting that

 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Um, that's a large 10% tor probs on the 1300z SPC OTLK...

They've been hammering the QLCS tornado risk for days. A lot of research has been going in that area in recent years. Tony Lyza on Twitter is all about that focus.

[yoda]

Large 45 percent hatched wind

 

[09-10 analogy]

This is a mt. fort Reno day for sure. May need to take a folding chair there.

[yoda]

 

[H2O]

We are now in rare territory.  The EJ Step

 

[H2O]

Peeks of sun now

 

[TSSN+]

YIELDING MANY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE   HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES.

[yoda]

SPC AC 071244 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EASTERN KY/NORTHEAST TN/NORTHWEST NC...WESTERN AND NORTHERN VA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WV...CENTRAL MD...AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible across parts of the eastern U.S. today with widespread damaging winds, locally destructive, and isolated tornadoes as the greatest threats from the southern and central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Southeast to the Upper OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough over the Lower OH Valley will advance across the northern Appalachians by this evening. A pair of 500-mb speed maxima from 55-65 kts are expected to be centered by late afternoon across eastern KY/TN and southern WV into western VA/NC, and separately over the Mid-South. Peak flow within an expansive 700-mb jet should be centered between the 500-mb maxima across the TN Valley. A plume of large potential buoyancy supported by high PW and steep mid-level lapse rates, and centered over the Mid-South/TN Valley will expand east-northeast towards the central/southern Appalachians with an expansive swath of MLCAPE from 2000-3500 J/kg expected by peak heating. The 12Z BNA sounding well-sampled this potentially volatile environment. To the north of the steeper mid-level lapse rate plume, minimal inhibition will result in scattered thunderstorms forming by midday centered on far southern OH across eastern KY ahead of the aforementioned trough. This activity will progress into an increasingly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment downstream, yielding many supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Upscale growth into several linear clusters with embedded supercells is anticipated during the afternoon as convective coverage becomes widespread from PA/MD south-southwest across the southern Appalachian states. Forecast soundings suggest the greatest tornado threat will probably exist across eastern KY/TN northeast across southern/eastern WV, western VA, central MD and into southeast PA. Given the supercell wind profiles, significant severe wind gusts will also be possible on a localized basis. Across the Southeast, the separate mid-level speed max approaching the Mid-South, aiding in the low-level warm-advection regime of elevated thunderstorms over OK/AR this morning, will likely support scattered surface-based thunderstorms forming across the TN Valley by early afternoon. With large buoyancy downstream within the gradient of the strong low to mid-level flow, an extensive linear MCS will likely develop and spread east-southeast across the Carolinas and GA. Widespread damaging winds will be possible here as well, with convection likely weakening towards/after sunset as it approaches the south Atlantic coast.

[09-10 analogy]

Last weekend’s two wind events aside, it’s been a pretty boring stretch of weather around here; we’ve earned some excitement.