Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Just now, Corrie said: Crazy winds in Leesburg and I can hear pings of hail on the windows. Leesburg ASOS just gust to M51mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Storms seem to be percolating in NVA (e.g. Leesburg) even as they're choking off in C MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 SPC has been so bad this year. They issue a watch about every little thing, like always. Could have told you looking at the profiles on their website it wasn't going to be a big day. Sometimes just look out the window... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Got to be a swath of CIN or something through northern MD. Storms all dying in that zone. I had to look that one up, but some storms firing north of 70 west of Frederick. Maybe they’ll hold together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Boom. Storms firing in Frederick County off the Catoctin Mts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Well whatever we're getting is soon to arrive. The wall of doom grey is a bit ragged along the horizon, it's not a solid block of menacing TSTM+++++ coming in. From NEXRAD, the Rt 7 express stuff I had hopes for seems to be weakening just like everything else. Oh, well, I can always move to Moore or Tanner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Another pathetic SVR for the beltway. Zzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Another pathetic SVR for the beltway. Zzzz Time sensitive but loop the 0.5 degree base velocity from TDCA. Classic wet mircoburst signature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Time sensitive but loop the 0.5 degree base velocity from TDCA. Classic wet mircoburst signature. Yup, right around 7 corners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Got to be a swath of CIN or something through northern MD. Storms all dying in that zone. Yep. Heard a few distant rumbles as some storms moved through York County, PA. Otherwise nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Time sensitive but loop the 0.5 degree base velocity from TDCA. Classic wet mircoburst signature. That is actually pretty cool - I’ll amend my statement to another snoozer for me, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 24 minutes ago, Corrie said: Crazy winds in Leesburg and I can hear pings of hail on the windows. Agreed, best storm we've had all summer. Winds were right around severe level in Leesburg in my neighborhood 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Time sensitive but loop the 0.5 degree base velocity from TDCA. Classic wet mircoburst signature. Yep, wide south. Happens not infrequently in Tenley. Still remember the tornadic storm that went through N Arlington/Foggy Bottom a couple of years ago ... t'wernt much here. At least I (used to) get more snow than they do, but as Joni Mitchell once wrote, it don't snow here, it stays pretty green. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Preliminary GIS analysis shows that LWX verified 90% (9/10) of the severe thunderstorm warnings issued today. We're fortunate to have excellent mets there, as well as several terminal Doppler radars for additional storm interrogation. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 3 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said: Agreed, best storm we've had all summer. Winds were right around severe level in Leesburg in my neighborhood 70mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 25 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: 70mph? Leesburg ASOS gusted to M51mph. The core of the wind passed just south of there. Given that Martinsburg ASOS gusted to M69mph earlier in the afternoon and there was ample DCAPE, it's entirely possible portions of Leesburg got 60 to 65 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corrie Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Leesburg ASOS gusted to M51mph. The core of the wind passed just south of there. Given that Martinsburg ASOS gusted to M69mph earlier in the afternoon and there was ample DCAPE, it's entirely possible portions of Leesburg got 60 to 65 mph winds. Yeah it was pretty wild. Strongest wind gusts I've seen in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Slight risk for Saturday for most of the area - 2/15/5 Models seem to favor N VA from the little bit that ive seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 SPC debated adding ENH and 30 wind for us on 1730z OTLK, but decided against it per discussion Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over southern New England into the Mid Atlantic states on Saturday. Damaging gusts are the primary hazard. Widely scattered severe storms are also possible over the north-central Great Plains late Saturday into Saturday night. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge centered over the Divide will amplify on Saturday. Some amplification of the cyclonic flow aloft over the Northeast is also expected. At the surface, a frontal boundary will continue to sag southward within the Plains into the Northeast. This front will likely become more diffuse with time, however. Farther west, modest moist upslope flow will occur in the central/northern High Plains behind the boundary. ...Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop by afternoon either along the front or along a surface trough near the Blue Ridge. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, strong surface heating and a very moist boundary layer will support moderate to strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The greatest values will likely occur within central/eastern Virginia into perhaps the Delmarva. Farther north, more limited heating and weaker mid-level lapse rates will limit overall destabilization. With the amplifying upper-level pattern, moderate mid-level winds will exist as far south as the northern Mid-Atlantic and decrease fairly rapidly to the south. That being said, the overlap of the most buoyant air and the greater deep-layer shear will not be spatially broad. Given the degree of buoyancy, damaging downburst winds are the expected primary threat with isolated large hail possible with initial storm development. A complicating factor in the forecast will be the timing and location of an MCV moving out of the Great Lakes region. Depending on where this feature is located, an area of greater mesoscale shear and storm coverage could develop within a zone from central Virginia into the Delmarva. Confidence remains too low for an increase in wind probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, yoda said: SPC debated adding ENH and 30 wind for us on 1730z OTLK, but decided against it per discussion Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over southern New England into the Mid Atlantic states on Saturday. Damaging gusts are the primary hazard. Widely scattered severe storms are also possible over the north-central Great Plains late Saturday into Saturday night. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge centered over the Divide will amplify on Saturday. Some amplification of the cyclonic flow aloft over the Northeast is also expected. At the surface, a frontal boundary will continue to sag southward within the Plains into the Northeast. This front will likely become more diffuse with time, however. Farther west, modest moist upslope flow will occur in the central/northern High Plains behind the boundary. ...Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop by afternoon either along the front or along a surface trough near the Blue Ridge. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, strong surface heating and a very moist boundary layer will support moderate to strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The greatest values will likely occur within central/eastern Virginia into perhaps the Delmarva. Farther north, more limited heating and weaker mid-level lapse rates will limit overall destabilization. With the amplifying upper-level pattern, moderate mid-level winds will exist as far south as the northern Mid-Atlantic and decrease fairly rapidly to the south. That being said, the overlap of the most buoyant air and the greater deep-layer shear will not be spatially broad. Given the degree of buoyancy, damaging downburst winds are the expected primary threat with isolated large hail possible with initial storm development. A complicating factor in the forecast will be the timing and location of an MCV moving out of the Great Lakes region. Depending on where this feature is located, an area of greater mesoscale shear and storm coverage could develop within a zone from central Virginia into the Delmarva. Confidence remains too low for an increase in wind probabilities. Yes, but sounds like they are also honing in on that CVA to Delmarva area that I was seeing most models want to give the fun stuff to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 That big cluster heading into WV right now was completely missed by guidance last night/this morning. The HRRR finally picked it up the past couple runs. Will be interesting to see what that does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 not too much hope for today per pity meso from SPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 54 minutes ago, batmanbrad said: not too much hope for today per pity meso from SPC: Notice how clear it is over northern Loudoun county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Storms firing up near Martinsburg.. LI is near -10 around DC! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Hyped days underperform; meh days overperform. Going with that mantra for this afternoon. Nonscientific but, hey, I'm not a scientist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Will be interesting to see what the huge line of severe storms in WV does over the next hour or so as it gets ready to move into the Appalachians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued until 11pm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued until 11pm URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms with a history of wind damage will move across the higher terrain through the remainder of the afternoon, with additional storm clusters/downbursts expected farther east toward I-95. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Hagerstown MD to 35 miles west of Roanoke VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Interesting watchbox... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 5000 CAPE in eastern MD https://ibb.co/Zxqn6ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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