AmericanWxFreak Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: Hmmm Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 246 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A Bermuda high will remain in place offshore through Saturday. A surface trough will remain overhead through Saturday before a cold front passes through the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will likely return early next week while an upper-level trough builds overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The mid-level clouds have dissipated for the most part, and this has allowed for hot and humid conditions. The Heat Advisory for near/east of Interstate 81 to the Bay remains in effect for heat indices around 100 to 105 degrees. The heat and humidity has led to plenty of instability. Latest mesoanalysis shows around 1 to 3 KJ/KG of MLCAPE, but there is inhibition as of early this afternoon. Current feeling is that a surface trough axis over southwest PA will merge into a weak trough over north-central MD into northern VA as the upper-level trough axis to our north moves eastward. This added lift should be enough for some storms to develop late this afternoon. If storms do develop, then more storms will likely develop due to the boundaries produced by the convection. Shear is marginal, but higher CAPE and DCAPE suggest that damaging winds are a threat, along with the possibility of large hail. There is the possibility that coverage of severe storms can be numerous around northern VA into the DC and Baltimore Metro areas for reasons mentioned above. Do mesos not handle the boundary triggered storms well? I still see some very boring looks to those models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Some insane DCAPE and LL Lapse rates. If anything can punch through this cap, it's going to take off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 SPC issues Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 03:00 UTC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Cell approaching Harper's Ferry, WV just got warned. Solid hail core developing and tops shooting up. Might have broken through the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Cell approaching Harper's Ferry, WV just got warned. Solid hail core developing and tops shooting up. Might have broken through the cap. Severe Thunderstorm Warning MDC021-043-VAC107-WVC037-272015- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0169.230727T1936Z-230727T2015Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 336 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... North central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Central Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 415 PM EDT. * At 336 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Ranson, or near Shepherdstown, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Charles Town, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, Ranson, Braddock Heights, Harpers Ferry, Kearneysville, Point Of Rocks, Corporation Of Ranson, Adamstown, Jefferson, Lovettsville, Bolivar, Buckeystown, Shenandoah Junction, Rosemont, Rohrersville, Burkittsville and Gapland. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3927 7796 3936 7794 3941 7789 3946 7744 3924 7745 TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 266DEG 22KT 3935 7783 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Looks like that lead warned cell is generating a bit of a cold pool? More stuff firing along and behind it. HRRR alluded to this earlier today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Just got to bmore, so obviously Frederick will now get a storm…and potentially a train of them lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like that lead warned cell is generating a bit of a cold pool? More stuff firing along and behind it. HRRR alluded to this earlier today. I guess we are also watching the stuff back in Garrett County? Warning says its moving SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Probably some flood warnings will be coming soon as well BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 422 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 422 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Brunswick to near Charles Town, moving east at 5 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Charles Town, Poolesville, Brunswick, Ranson, Point Of Rocks, Corporation Of Ranson, Adamstown, Lovettsville, Barnesville, Hillsboro, Waterford, Neersville, Doubs, Park Mills, Lucketts, Dickerson, Beallsville, Tuscarora, Millville and Taylorstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 big anvil cloud passing just to my north. Still sunny here. Probably another miss EDIT: just stepped outside and looked directly upwind. All clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: big anvil cloud passing just to my north. Still sunny here. Probably another miss EDIT: just stepped outside and looked directly upwind. All clear skies. These storms are definitely struggling to maintain themselves once they roll off the terrain. That cap must not be fully eroded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Areas affected...Parts of PA into northern MD/VA...eastern WV...DC...Northern DE...NJ Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555... Valid 272046Z - 272215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat may gradually increase into early evening. DISCUSSION...Late this afternoon, convection is gradually deepening along two corridors across parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic. The southernmost corridor is a broadly confluent zone from southwest PA into northern MD, within a region of somewhat greater low/midlevel moisture. Storms have been gradually intensifying along this corridor, where deep-layer shear is rather weak, but sufficient for a modestly organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind in the presence of moderate buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates. An uptick in the damaging-wind threat is possible along this corridor as storm coverage gradually increases into early evening. Farther north, increasing cumulus is noted along a diffuse surface boundary from western into northeast PA, with storms gradually developing from northeast to southwest. Deep-layer shear is generally rather weak in this area as well, though low/midlevel flow gradually increases with eastward extent, in closer proximity to a departing mid/upper-level shortwave trough across New England. Isolated storms may develop as far west as west-central PA, but somewhat greater coverage is expected across eastern PA into this evening. Steepened low-level lapse rates will support at least a localized damaging-wind threat with any stronger storms across this area. ..Dean.. 07/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Areas affected...Parts of PA into northern MD/VA...eastern WV...DC...Northern DE...NJ Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555... Valid 272046Z - 272215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat may gradually increase into early evening. DISCUSSION...Late this afternoon, convection is gradually deepening along two corridors across parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic. The southernmost corridor is a broadly confluent zone from southwest PA into northern MD, within a region of somewhat greater low/midlevel moisture. Storms have been gradually intensifying along this corridor, where deep-layer shear is rather weak, but sufficient for a modestly organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind in the presence of moderate buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates. An uptick in the damaging-wind threat is possible along this corridor as storm coverage gradually increases into early evening. Farther north, increasing cumulus is noted along a diffuse surface boundary from western into northeast PA, with storms gradually developing from northeast to southwest. Deep-layer shear is generally rather weak in this area as well, though low/midlevel flow gradually increases with eastward extent, in closer proximity to a departing mid/upper-level shortwave trough across New England. Isolated storms may develop as far west as west-central PA, but somewhat greater coverage is expected across eastern PA into this evening. Steepened low-level lapse rates will support at least a localized damaging-wind threat with any stronger storms across this area. ..Dean.. 07/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 457 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Western Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 457 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of Davis, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Petersburg, Streby, Maysville, Welton, Cabins, Arthur, Kline Gap, Seymourville and Lahmansville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Will it be a miss for @EastCoast NPZ? BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 502 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... West central Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 502 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winchester, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Winchester, Millwood Pike, Berryville, Stephens City, Boyce, Millwood, Greenwood, Briggs and Stringtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 512 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 512 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Boyds, or near Poolesville, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Olney, Poolesville, Aspen Hill, Potomac, North Bethesda, Montgomery Village, North Potomac, Redland, Boyds, Clarksburg, Darnestown, Derwood, Washington Grove, Laytonsville, Barnesville, Dickerson and Beallsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, yoda said: Will it be a miss for @EastCoast NPZ? BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 502 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... West central Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 502 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winchester, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Winchester, Millwood Pike, Berryville, Stephens City, Boyce, Millwood, Greenwood, Briggs and Stringtown Went 1/2 mile to my north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Time sensitive! Pull up TIAD radar and look at lowest base velocity scan. Sick downburst over western Montgomery/Southern Frederick Counties! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Winchester ASOS just gusted to M69 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 I can look in every direction and see storms. Except due west, upstream of me of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Time sensitive! Pull up TIAD radar and look at lowest base velocity scan. Sick downburst over western Montgomery/Southern Frederick Counties! You've just reminded me....I need to renew my Radarscope subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Winchester ASOS just gusted to M69 mph. Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 522 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0517 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Winchester Rgnl Arpt 39.14N 78.14W 07/27/2023 M69 mph Frederick VA AWOS A wind gust of 60 knots (69 MPH) was measured by the AWOS at Winchester Regional Airport (KOKV). && Event Number LWX2301510 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 526 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 526 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Purcellville, or 8 miles west of Leesburg, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Leesburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Bluemont, Oatlands, Hamilton, Paeonian Springs, Gleedsville, Philomont, Lincoln and Hughesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Time sensitive! Pull up TIAD radar and look at lowest base velocity scan. Sick downburst over western Montgomery/Southern Frederick Counties! Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 519 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0511 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 SSW Dickerson 39.21N 77.44W 07/27/2023 Montgomery MD County Emergy Mg Several trees and wires blew down near Dickerson, including near the intersection of MD-28 Dickerson Road and Martinsburg Road. && Event Number LWX2301509 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 It'll be interesting to see if the powerful storms moving thru MOCO/NVA can lay down any boundaries that may goose (or perpetuate) the storms lining up on I-66 in the Front Royals area, so that (yes, MBY) NW DC can get in on some good stuff a bit later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 539 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0514 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 NE Winchester 39.18N 78.16W 07/27/2023 Frederick VA 911 Call Center Several trees blew down in the City of Winchester. && Event Number LWX2301511 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said: It'll be interesting to see if the powerful storms moving thru MOCO/NVA can lay down any boundaries that may goose (or perpetuate) the storms lining up on I-66 in the Front Royals area, so that (yes, MBY) NW DC can get in on some good stuff a bit later. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-24 can see some semblance of outflow in this loop (at least as of right now, 5:43PM) moving S or SSE from the storms up in Loudoun/Montgomery 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Got to be a swath of CIN or something through northern MD. Storms all dying in that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1.44" rain so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corrie Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Crazy winds in Leesburg and I can hear pings of hail on the windows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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