CAPE Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Rain stopped so I got a shot of the driveway. Good drainage so its recovering quickly. Have only seen it that bad a couple times. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 I don't know...the STW that's still up just doesn't seem justified for close-in DC, based on ongoing radar. I'm seeing a few new towers going up S/E of my location, in the same area that had towers building just after the lunch hour...with nothing happening going west of there to I-81...and then only down around Harrisonburg/Staunton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: I don't know...the STW that's still up just doesn't seem justified for close-in DC, based on ongoing radar. I'm seeing a few new towers going up S/E of my location, in the same area that had towers building just after the lunch hour...with nothing happening going west of there to I-81...and then only down around Harrisonburg/Staunton. It seems like a wrap for the majority of us. We just haven’t really cashed in this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 17 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: It seems like a wrap for the majority of us. We just haven’t really cashed in this summer. HRRR is still adamant about another small cluster forming in and around the DC burbs in an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 2 hours ago, AmericanWxFreak said: HRRR is still adamant about another small cluster forming in and around the DC burbs in an hour or two. Warned cluster getting going south of Purcellville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Warned cluster getting going south of Purcellville. Kudos to the meso models, they had this 2nd round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 NW Stafford cell looks nasty. That blew up in 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 just got spanked with marble sized hail in round hill 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Beautiful pink Mammatus here in Harford Co., in front of a blue-gray-purple sky. It's rained twice, but there is still a decent amount of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 15 minutes of pea, dime and nickle hail and heavy rain here south of Waldorf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 That's some explosive development of severe storms tomorrow afternoon on the 18z NAM NEST 18z HRRR is pretty good IMO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Also, 18z NAM has some nice soundings and parameters for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Also, 18z NAM has some nice soundings and parameters for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night Yeah Saturday... I've been keeping an eye on that. At least Heat Advisory level heat, decent CAPE, some fun looking sim radar reflectivity on a few models ("Oh Canada!")... Ultimately, ingredients are in place should there be storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Dang does 00z NAM sim radar look TASTY for Saturday night lol ETA -- Haven't seen a PDS TOR sounding in a while either... 00z NAM tossing those out at hour 72 near the WV/VA border into E WV just west of the i81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 8 hours ago, yoda said: Dang does 00z NAM sim radar look TASTY for Saturday night lol ETA -- Haven't seen a PDS TOR sounding in a while either... 00z NAM tossing those out at hour 72 near the WV/VA border into E WV just west of the i81 corridor Big heat doesn't go quietly into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Not seeing much enthusiasm on the models for today's threat as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Not seeing much enthusiasm on the models for today's threat as of right now. Lots of cloud cover here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 SLGT risk remains for today on the 1300z SPC OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, yoda said: SLGT risk remains for today on the 1300z SPC OTLK Just 15% wind - the 5% hail risk from yesterday has been removed. We'll see. Some good clearing happening in central MD over the last 30 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Just 15% wind - the 5% hail risk from yesterday has been removed. We'll see. Some good clearing happening in central MD over the last 30 mins That's pretty much going to be our severe potential for the next few days -- wind. Maybe a slight chance of a large hail report or weak spin-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 hour ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Not seeing much enthusiasm on the models for today's threat as of right now. Clouds and wind. Heck of a way to run a heat wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 eh.. https://ibb.co/QXVtJqm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 HRRR still very unenthused. Just a couple of small isolated storms. 12z 3k NAM had a more widespread segment form along 95 in the early evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Watch coming later this afternoon for parts of the LWX CWA per MCD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Watch coming later this afternoon for parts of the LWX CWA per MCD Best activity is going to be up there in SEPA it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Best activity is going to be up there in SEPA it seems. Rinse, repeat. Been the story of the entire summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1630z OTLK from SPC keeps the SLGT risk for wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Rinse, repeat. Been the story of the entire summer.The actual storms to tracking ratio is about the same as it was in the winter…not ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 hour ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Best activity is going to be up there in SEPA it seems. Last two years has been pretty active in PA. Family in SJ has also gotten smacked around pretty good this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Hmmm Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 246 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A Bermuda high will remain in place offshore through Saturday. A surface trough will remain overhead through Saturday before a cold front passes through the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will likely return early next week while an upper-level trough builds overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The mid-level clouds have dissipated for the most part, and this has allowed for hot and humid conditions. The Heat Advisory for near/east of Interstate 81 to the Bay remains in effect for heat indices around 100 to 105 degrees. The heat and humidity has led to plenty of instability. Latest mesoanalysis shows around 1 to 3 KJ/KG of MLCAPE, but there is inhibition as of early this afternoon. Current feeling is that a surface trough axis over southwest PA will merge into a weak trough over north-central MD into northern VA as the upper-level trough axis to our north moves eastward. This added lift should be enough for some storms to develop late this afternoon. If storms do develop, then more storms will likely develop due to the boundaries produced by the convection. Shear is marginal, but higher CAPE and DCAPE suggest that damaging winds are a threat, along with the possibility of large hail. There is the possibility that coverage of severe storms can be numerous around northern VA into the DC and Baltimore Metro areas for reasons mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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