George BM Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 Wonder if we can get some W/NW flow action late this week and/or this weekend as a few models are hinting at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 The depiction on the 18z 3km NAM aligns pretty well with the SPC discussion for tomorrow- A large scale mid/upper trough oriented from the lower Great Lakes to the central Appalachians will pivot east across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. Large scale ascent coupled with modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt) atop a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms from early afternoon into early evening. Elongated/straight hodographs amid large instability above 850 mb and increasing westerlies to around 35 kt between 3-6 km suggest isolated severe hail will be possible with semi-discrete cells, especially around the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay vicinity where midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be steepest (around 6.5-7 C/km). Strong heating will aid in steepening low-level lapse rates, and low-level winds will remain fairly light. This will promote potential for strong outflow and isolated damaging gusts. Some guidance suggests a forward propagating cluster may develop via consolidating outflow across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity late afternoon/early evening. As a result of these factors, the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across the Mid-Atlantic and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) introduced across the Delmarva vicinity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 0z HRRR does it's usual thing of bringing dews way down - even into the lower 60s for some tomorrow afternoon. The 18z NAM had richer moisture as usual. Despite that, the HRRR does deliver some storms but it looks fairly garden variety. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 Much of the guidance is almost nothing if you are west of I-95 in most of the area. FV3 Hi-res is still decent. But east seems to be very much favored today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 I’ll take some beach storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 31 minutes ago, H2O said: I’ll take some beach storms Which beach are you at? I'm thinking MBY will be a snoozer today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Which beach are you at? I'm thinking MBY will be a snoozer today. Doesn’t have a name but near silver beach which is bay side way south of chincoteague 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 14 minutes ago, H2O said: Doesn’t have a name but near silver beach which is bay side way south of chincoteague Hope you miss out on the potential 100 degree weather down there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 Pretty strong CAPE already indicated for this early hour on SPC mesoanalysis - core of it it suns from NE Maryland down to the Potomac, essentially over the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 I somehow never realized there is a mesoanalysis ARCHIVE! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/ That's some decent fun going through our big events. Seems like some imagery is missing but there's enough there to have some fun for weather nerds. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 Already storming E of 95 in many spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 3000+ CAPE along I-95. https://ibb.co/NKJ3L6P 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 The sun is slowly starting to break through the mountain clouds here. Hopefully, that’s a trend and sets the table for at least some isolated storms west of 95 later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase from northern Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania this afternoon, then track eastward across the watch area through the day. Damaging winds are possible in the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Windsor Locks CT to 45 miles east southeast of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 I just barely made it into the watch in terms of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Pretty good instability https://ibb.co/cxhy1jk Behind the line even https://ibb.co/sVdXpyT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Pretty good instabilityhttps://ibb.co/cxhy1jk Behind the line evenhttps://ibb.co/sVdXpyTThe atmosphere is ripe today. Sunny, stagnant and humid is my favorite recipe for storms. The rest is a “we shall see”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 We might have to hope a boundary can set off some storms for folks W of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: We might have to hope a boundary can set off some storms for folks W of I-95 Don't think today is our day W of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 There's a diffuse boundary to the west of the existing storms. That will be something to watch. This is from the TIAD radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Don't think today is our day W of I-95. Some of the mesos have this activity sort of drift off and die away before some new storms come in from N VA/Central MD closer to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Don't think today is our day W of I-95. I would tend to agree - and most guidance agreed overnight and this morning as well. Thursday already has the slight - maybe we can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 @Kmlwxdefinitely can see a westward moving outflow boundary from the first round of convection. Hopefully this can act as a mechanism for more storms later but I'm really pessimistic about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: @Kmlwxdefinitely can see a westward moving outflow boundary from the first round of convection. Hopefully this can act as a mechanism for more storms later but I'm really pessimistic about it. I'm right there with you. It's mostly evolving just as much of the guidance had been predicting with a focus S/E of DC. Looking more longer range - GFS is trying to signal (for multiple runs) Something in the first day or two of August with beefy parameters. Way too far out for now...but CIPS has also been lighting up in the 96-120hr frames. The super long range CIPS quiets down substantially - probably indicates some larger cold front to clear out the juice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Looks like there might be some hail with that cell moving towards southern Kent Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: There's a diffuse boundary to the west of the existing storms. That will be something to watch. This is from the TIAD radar. Nice call. Shower popped up at the north end of that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Well that was interesting. Thought I could beat it when I left work, and drove straight into it a few miles south of my house. Wind driven torrential rain, lots of small debris and some big branches down. Plenty of T&L. My driveway is a river. Appears this blew up right on the doorstep from the outflow from the initial line. 1.73". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Well that was interesting. Thought I could beat it when I left work, and drove straight into it a few miles south of my house. Wind driven torrential rain, lots of small debris and some big branches down. Plenty of T&L. My driveway is a river. Appears this blew up right on the doorstep from the outflow from the initial line. 1.73". I hope all that nice stone didn’t get washed away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: I hope all that nice stone didn’t get washed away! It should be ok. Some of the mulch areas are a different story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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