yoda Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 LWX CWA has two counties in the New STWatch issued by SPC just now SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 615 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2023 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-023-210700- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0528.230720T2215Z-230721T0700Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Wind probabilities are pretty high on that watch box and there's a decent number of LSRs coming out in MI, PA, and OH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 20, 2023 Author Share Posted July 20, 2023 Not anything near as intense as June 2012 - but this is the kind of event where MAYBE some of us get surprised. Models can really struggle sometimes with eastern extent of a threat in a setup like this. It will be fighting the complete opposite of peak heating by the time it gets here - but I'll be watching. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 It feels like instability has picked up a little. I know last night it felt like it was 92 degrees and rain when I went to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 27 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Not anything near as intense as June 2012 - but this is the kind of event where MAYBE some of us get surprised. Models can really struggle sometimes with eastern extent of a threat in a setup like this. It will be fighting the complete opposite of peak heating by the time it gets here - but I'll be watching. Agreed. This event is climatologically abnormal, and we don't have the rocket fuel to really goose the storms up. Still, we have some decent mid level instability, a belt of shear, and some really solid DCAPE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 @Kmlwx I lost the OU CIMMS placefile for GR. Can you post it in here please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 20, 2023 Author Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Agreed. This event is climatologically abnormal, and we don't have the rocket fuel to really goose the storms up. Still, we have some decent mid level instability, a belt of shear, and some really solid DCAPE. Also, in addition to not having the triple digit heat that June 2012 had, this will be arriving substantially later. In fact, it will probably arrive so late that it makes little sense to "stay up" for the storms...I'll set an alarm for 2am perhaps and see how things look. I do like the look of the stuff over western Ohio - based on the H5 flow I'd think that would be more likely to be our stuff versus the NW PA stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 20, 2023 Author Share Posted July 20, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: @Kmlwx I lost the OU CIMMS placefile for GR. Can you post it in here please? Hang on - coming right up https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Look at the warnings https://radar.weather.gov/station/KCLE/standard LI https://ibb.co/FkpzH99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Hang on - coming right up https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Wind threat? Should I bring in pool floats and stuff? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, mappy said: Wind threat? Should I bring in pool floats and stuff? If it's easy - I'm not convinced the storms will make it here with much else than showers. But - some of the models do have something coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, mappy said: Wind threat? Should I bring in pool floats and stuff? Lapse Rates and CAPE is pretty decent. Another beautiful sunset with a sliver of moon in the sky. clear skies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: If it's easy - I'm not convinced the storms will make it here with much else than showers. But - some of the models do have something coming through. Thanks! I’ll reevaluate before going to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Lapse Rates and CAPE is pretty decent. Another beautiful sunset with a sliver of moon in the sky. clear skies Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Currently 3 tornado warnings in nrn Ohio and NW PA. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 8:30pm LWX AFD evening update .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Unsettled weather pattern is expected for tonight with strong storms likely and severe storms possible. Current analysis shows an MCS ahead of a cold front moving into Pennsylvania while another area of convection approaches the Shenandoah Valley from the southwest, which is in association with a weaker shortwave/outflow boundary that is passing by to the south. For this evening, the activity to our southwest will most likely propagate into the central Shenandoah Valley and Potomac Highlands. Note the west to southwest flow over western VA converging into the south to southeast flow over the central Shenandoah Valley. There is an area of higher MLCAPE over this area as well. Therefore, showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop this evening across this area, and with moderate effective deep layer shear, some storms may become severe. Damaging wind is the primary threat, but an isolated instance of hail is possible as well. Also, there is a decent amount of moisture pull, looking at the 925 and 850mb moisture transport from the southwest. This, combined with a light low-level flow means that some storms may hug terrain or convective boundaries, causing a threat for flood/flash flooding. However, confidence is too low for a watch at this time given a relatively stronger steering flow. Will continue to monitor. The other area of concern is the MCS moving through Pennsylvania this evening. This line will most likely propagate southeast into western MD close to midnight, before moving through our area from northwest to southeast overnight. The propagation of this system to the southeast is offset from the steering flow, which is southwest to northeast as well as the potent shortwave that will be passing by to the north. Therefore, there is a chance that the outflow may outrun this activity, causing it to be relatively weaker. However, there is increasing CAPE and instability due to southerly winds ahead of this system, despite it not being a favorable time for convection. This increases the threat for severe storms. Given the setup, damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, especially near and north of Interstate 66 and US 50 into eastern WV, northern VA, and northern/western MD, where the forcing will be strongest. Isolated instances of flood/flash flooding are possible due to the heavy rain and increasing moisture ahead of this system. However, it should be progressive (causing any training storms to be localized in coverage). The low-level flow will be backed more to the southeast and perhaps a bit stronger, especially near/east of Interstate 95 in northeastern MD. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as this activity approaches toward Friday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Solid arc of severe TS warnings from near Toronto/Buffalo all the way back to central Ohio. Gotta wonder what this thing would have done in peak afternoon heating! Hoping to score but it's tough in the rain shadow, especially with NW to SE moving stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Still have juicy LI's https://ibb.co/m0vBQ8s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Mid level lapse rates appear to have strengthened and as @Stormchaserchuck1 just mentioned, Lift Index is rather robust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 0z HRRR kills off most of the activity for much of our area except for NE Maryland as LWX has been indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 0z HRRR kills off most of the activity for much of our area except for NE Maryland as LWX has been indicating. HRRR timing is not even close. Storms right now about to move into state college around 10ish and HRRR at 10 has the storms like 3 counties west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: HRRR timing is not even close. Storms right now about to move into state college around 10ish and HRRR at 10 has the storms like 3 counties west of there. It also seems to interact with the activity over WV which seems to "aid" in killing off the line. Certainly the line still looks robust for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 It also seems to interact with the activity over WV which seems to "aid" in killing off the line. Certainly the line still looks robust for right now. The mountains love this type of system. If I can see lightning in the distance with remnant light showers, I’ll call it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: It also seems to interact with the activity over WV which seems to "aid" in killing off the line. Certainly the line still looks robust for right now. I'm sure it will crap out though. I haven’t had a single thunderstorm this season yet. The heaviest rain I have had was late June and was only like .5” or something that day but was just a plain rainy day. Total rainfall since June 1st here only at 1.87”. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 PBZ radar is cool to watch. You can see the outflow trying to outrun the storms. Outflow seems to be heading almost due south despite the storms trying to pull more easterly - they keep being tugged along with the outflow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 I've been surprised it's been raining so much here in NE MD. We have 10"+ since it started a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Looks like the best instability will be from NE suburbs of DC into Baltimore and PA. New severe thunderstorm watch for PA until 5:00 am Fri, 7/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 24, 2023 Author Share Posted July 24, 2023 12z NAM nest goes kind of bonkers for parts of the area tomorrow afternoon - even has intense UH tracks over parts of the area. The other guidance is less impressive...but the FV3 is pretty good too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: 12z NAM nest goes kind of bonkers for parts of the area tomorrow afternoon - even has intense UH tracks over parts of the area. The other guidance is less impressive...but the FV3 is pretty good too. SLGT risk introduced for tomorrow east of the mountains. T/W/H 0/15/15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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