SLPressure Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 86/73 sunny skies National Harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 Mesoscale discussion for all the way up in NY/N NJ/NE PA. Nothing for us yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 All the local weather stations in my neighborhood are showing 90-94 temps and 69-72 DPs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, mappy said: FWIW: 82/72 with sunny skies in Parkton confirmed - full sun five miles away in Monkton. traffic jam of tubes on the gunpoweder river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Just now, North Balti Zen said: confirmed - full sun five miles away in Monkton. traffic jam of floats on the gunpoweder river. I believe it, nice day for it. Did you catch any of Hereford's fireworks last night? Not sure how far you are from the High School where they set them off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Just now, mappy said: I believe it, nice day for it. Did you catch any of Hereford's fireworks last night? Not sure how far you are from the High School where they set them off No - too far away to see them but heard them for sure - as did my youngest lab who was NOT pleased. the older lab just looked at him with a "come on dude chill" expression.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: No - too far away to see them but heard them for sure - as did my youngest lab who was NOT pleased. the older lab just looked at him with a "come on dude chill" expression.... Yeah, we could hear them too. And our dogs are the same. We kept them in the basement Saturday when Big Truck did their fireworks. Those we could see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Dulles was reporting 65 dew point, Andrews AFB was 67, College Park AIrport 67 and Warrenton Airport 60 as of the past 30 to 40 minutes on GREarth. There are plenty of other locations reporting 69 to 73 dew points. When sun broke through full, I went out and read 86 degrees with a 66 dew point at Noon. Was using a Kestrel 4500. Hope as many of us can cash in on meaningful rains today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 I'm betting that stuff towards Front Royal/along the Blue Ridge is the main show. Should see it start to grow/intensify as it comes off the higher elevations. May be more stuff later - but that should be the "big storm" potential. Lots of sun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Watch coming soon... 95% per SPC MCD https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1401.html Mesoscale Discussion 1401 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 031742Z - 031945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop in a hot, moist environment. Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible. One or more severe thunderstorm watches are likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Early-afternoon satellite imagery shows developing cumulus along the Appalachians. Some stable billow clouds remain in central/northern Virginia, but they have shown a dissipating trend over the last hour. Farther south, a weak MCV is slowly moving east in central North Carolina. Some convection has recently developed along the northeastern flank of this feature where temperatures are in the low 90s F. Due to modest rising mid-level heights, it seems that convection may still take some time to mature, with the MCV-related storms potentially being an exception. Modest mid-level winds remaining across the region (diminishing with southward extent) will lead to 30-35 kts of effective shear. Strong surface heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (greater with southward extent). Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the next few hours with the potential for strong/severe wind gusts. Large hail is possible with supercell structures, but will be more isolated in nature. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic region in the next 1-2 hours. ..Wendt/Grams.. 07/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Sunny 88/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 90F here, Sunny. You can tell the air is saturated though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Dew points are now climbing back to the mid/upper 60's in those previously mentioned reporting stations. Winds are now backing from W to SW to S across central and south central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 I'd watch the cell entering Culpepper county... looks like its increasing VIL and could have a small hail core soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, yoda said: I'd watch the cell entering Culpepper county... looks like its increasing VIL and could have a small hail core soon That's the only activity that looks remotely interesting for the moment. Will see how this stuff looks as it heads into Loudoun - but pretty unimpressive thus far. That cell you mentioned might end up being what the 6z NAM showed with the UH track - but perhaps a little further south than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Eastern and southern West VA and west central VA from northwest of Lexington, down past Lynchburg are lighting up with new convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That's the only activity that looks remotely interesting for the moment. Will see how this stuff looks as it heads into Loudoun - but pretty unimpressive thus far. That cell you mentioned might end up being what the 6z NAM showed with the UH track - but perhaps a little further south than forecast. As you and I both noted earlier, the morning CAMs had the current cells coming off of the mountains and evolving into the show. But the new HRRR doesn't do much with them and instead initiates the show later. Certainly seems plausible with the current cells struggling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 Just now, high risk said: As you and I both noted earlier, the morning CAMs had the current cells coming off of the mountains and evolving into the show. But the new HRRR doesn't do much with them and instead initiates the show later. Certainly seems plausible with the current cells struggling. Think the "dying" activity moving in now could do two very different things...perhaps they cloud us over and tamp down instability...ruining any storms later. OR maybe they setup some temperature boundaries which could focus storms later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Think the "dying" activity moving in now could do two very different things...perhaps they cloud us over and tamp down instability...ruining any storms later. OR maybe they setup some temperature boundaries which could focus storms later. I am going to call it crapvection because it has kept me cloudy and just a few showers. Energy needed is being tempered by clouds and some rain.. If we break out into full sun, I will be a bit more intrigued. I think the show is east of Loudoun today. We were the edge as far as I was concerned anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Think the "dying" activity moving in now could do two very different things...perhaps they cloud us over and tamp down instability...ruining any storms later. OR maybe they setup some temperature boundaries which could focus storms later. Let's hope for the thermal boundaries for later enhanced activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 SPC mesoanalysis shows DCAPE isn't that high - take a look at the SBCAPE values down in E NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, high risk said: As you and I both noted earlier, the morning CAMs had the current cells coming off of the mountains and evolving into the show. But the new HRRR doesn't do much with them and instead initiates the show later. Certainly seems plausible with the current cells struggling. Would rather we get one solid line than a bunch of piddly junk. 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: SPC mesoanalysis shows DCAPE isn't that high - take a look at the SBCAPE values down in E NC DCAPE should revover to close to 1,000j/kg if we can manage decent sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Would rather we get one solid line than a bunch of piddly junk. DCAPE should revover to close to 1,000j/kg if we can manage decent sun. Been getting plenty of baking sun here in Colesville. I do think mesoanalysis does seem to "lag" just a little bit sometimes. We'll see how it looks in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Watch up till 10pm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Watch up till 10pm * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: Watch up till 10pm Not for us lol, unless you're seeing a watch not on SPC yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 1 minute ago, mappy said: Not for us lol, unless you're seeing a watch not on SPC yet Comes out on kamala usually 5-10 minutes before SPC puts it up https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/ 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 I see it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Not for us lol, unless you're seeing a watch not on SPC yetLooks like they juust issued it, the link for it on spc is broken lol Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 Just now, alexderiemer said: Looks like they juust issued it, the link for it on spc is broken lol Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk yeah, I see it now on the main page, hasn't fully loaded on the watch page 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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