Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 and the slight risk is gone. I really hate to be one to criticize SPC...but the other day they added a hatched hail area and subsequently removed it. Today they have us in marginal, bump us to slight, and then trim the slight way back again. With more and more people directly consuming SPC outlooks...we can no longer make the excuse of "it's not even for public eyes unless they go looking for it" - this is very public knowledge now. They should have just kept us at marginal all the way until confidence was higher. Rant over...but this is 2nd time in recent days/weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 1730z SPC OTLK for tomorrow... still SLGT risk ...Mid Atlantic/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into Ark-La-Tex... Along and just south of the weak frontal zone, the boundary-layer may be initially impacted by a considerable amount of remnant convective outflow. How the associated outflow boundaries evolve through midday Sunday remains unclear, but insolation along and to their south likely will contribute to steepening low-level lapse and moderate to large CAPE in the presence of seasonably high moisture content. This appears likely to occur beneath a belt of 30-40+ kt (perhaps stronger where augmented by prior convection) west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, which may prove conducive to renewed strong and organizing convective development Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated supercell structures are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, before potentially damaging wind gusts with evolving clusters becomes the more prominent hazard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1371.html Mesoscale Discussion 1371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Areas affected...northern/central Virginia into portions of Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011737Z - 011930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce locally strong gusts and hail through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along a surface trough near the higher terrain of west-central VA. Low to mid 70s surface dewpoints are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid modest midlevel lapse rates. Continued heating will result in steepening low-level lapse rates the next few hours. Vertical shear is expected to remain weak, at or below 20 kt 0-6 km effective bulk shear. This will limit longevity/organization of strong updrafts. Nevertheless, high PW values and boundary-layer mixing to around 1 km could support sporadic downbursts. While midlevel lapse rates and 3-6 km flow will remain weak, large instability from 700-300 mb and somewhat elongated hodographs could support a few instances of near-1 inch hail. The overall threat is expected to remain marginal, and a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 Meso discussion is about what would be expected. It's SOUPY out there. Definitely back to typical DC summer conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 And the DC area is back under a slight risk at 20Z from the SPC...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 Nothing on radar, but clouds are darkening overhead. Dc metro might see something fire up soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 Storms seem to be collapsing as they approach Central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 00z HRRR looks decent for two rounds tomorrow between 18z and 01z And around 18z to 22z MON as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 44 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z HRRR looks decent for two rounds tomorrow between 18z and 01z And around 18z to 22z MON as well Let's hope it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Let's hope it's right 00z NAM NEST also has two rounds between 18z and 02z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Sign me up for today's 12Z HRRR. Round 1 with severe chances later this afternoon, round 2 of noisy storms late tonight, and round 3 with severe chances later tomorrow. Most of the CAMs are bullish for later today. While mid-level lapse rates aren't awesome, they're sufficient, and the deep-layer shear is seasonably strong. Could be a decent coverage of wind reports. HRRR is an outlier for the late night MCS, so I'll assume for now that it's unlikely. Shear isn't as strong Monday afternoon, so SVR would be more scattered, but the shear looks to still be sufficient for storm organization. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 1 hour ago, high risk said: Sign me up for today's 12Z HRRR. Round 1 with severe chances later this afternoon, round 2 of noisy storms late tonight, and round 3 with severe chances later tomorrow. Most of the CAMs are bullish for later today. While mid-level lapse rates aren't awesome, they're sufficient, and the deep-layer shear is seasonably strong. Could be a decent coverage of wind reports. HRRR is an outlier for the late night MCS, so I'll assume for now that it's unlikely. Shear isn't as strong Monday afternoon, so SVR would be more scattered, but the shear looks to still be sufficient for storm organization. I like the UH signature right through the DC Beltway on the 12z NAM nest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 5 hours ago, high risk said: Sign me up for today's 12Z HRRR. Round 1 with severe chances later this afternoon, round 2 of noisy storms late tonight, and round 3 with severe chances later tomorrow. Most of the CAMs are bullish for later today. While mid-level lapse rates aren't awesome, they're sufficient, and the deep-layer shear is seasonably strong. Could be a decent coverage of wind reports. HRRR is an outlier for the late night MCS, so I'll assume for now that it's unlikely. Shear isn't as strong Monday afternoon, so SVR would be more scattered, but the shear looks to still be sufficient for storm organization. Not sure at all where we stand here at 20Z, but it's certainly not playing out as progged this morning. The CAMs looked great for the late afternoon period, but it's not cranking so far. The recent HRRR runs look awful, but I'm not totally sure to trust them fully, given their poor handle on the low-level moisture evolution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 9 minutes ago, high risk said: Not sure at all where we stand here at 20Z, but it's certainly not playing out as progged this morning. The CAMs looked great for the late afternoon period, but it's not cranking so far. The recent HRRR runs look awful, but I'm not totally sure to trust them fully, given their poor handle on the low-level moisture evolution. Seriously. Not sure what LWX is looking at (or smoking), but they need to adjust fire on their current forecast, at least for SE FfxCo. Sure, I could see several cell(s) potentially popping on radar before and just after sunset, especially since we're clearing out here a lot more right now, but...yeah, radar is a ghost town right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 I'll take the 18z 3km NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Showers starting to pop up from a band of agitated cumulus congestus stretching from Manassas to Alexandria. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, George BM said: Showers starting to pop up from a band of agitated cumulus congestus stretching from Manassas to Alexandria. LOL, good call...maybe a better call than LWX! Seeing that you're describing on radar, and it seems to be heading direct for Alexandia City (just to my north). Interestingly enough, I'm currently observing cumulus, at seemingly different levels, heading in at least three different directions over my patio at the moment...see, I mouthed off about the forecast, ran out and set up the patio/backyard, and I'm probably going to eat my words within the hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued till 11pm for the NE third of the region including the DC and BWI metros 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Did these cells form off an outflow boundary? Seeing something like one on Radarscope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Showers starting to pop up from a band of agitated cumulus congestus stretching from Manassas to Alexandria.Arlington cell not doing so hot. Drizzling for 3rd time today. FFX cell looks okay. Both look better this frame 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: Did these cells form off an outflow boundary? Seeing something like one on Radarscope. Definitely a boundary. Not sure what the source was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 The watch extends up past Philly to the western NJ suburbs of NYC. A couple of TOR warnings got issued for PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Reporting from fairfax, decent downpour with gusts, but no severe characteristics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Reporting from fairfax, decent downpour with gusts, but no severe characteristics Same. Just a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 95 East to the bay today. Quiet evening and night for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Skywarn has been activated anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Definitely a boundary. Not sure what the source was. Yeah - it's clear on radar but it doesn't seem like an outflow boundary - interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Strange looking radar the past 20 minutes or so. Regardless of exactly why, seems like these storms are struggling to take offsuns out. Rainbow at least lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Strange looking radar the past 20 minutes or so. Regardless of exactly why, seems like these storms are struggling to take off These cells just couldn’t maintain. I was in a good spot and got 0.09”. It clearly isn’t unstable enough right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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