George BM Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 Tornado Warning East/central Howard County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 Tornado Warning East/central Howard County. Pretty clear rotation - not seeing anything obvious on CC as it stands 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 The rotation sig went right over me, there wasn't much wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, George BM said: Tornado Warning East/central Howard County. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 435 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 MDC027-302045- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230630T2045Z/ Howard MD- 435 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTY... At 435 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Columbia, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Historic Ellicott City, Ellicott City and Catonsville around 445 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Simpsonville and Ilchester. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3928 7679 3927 7679 3923 7673 3922 7675 3918 7689 3921 7692 3929 7680 TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 240DEG 15KT 3921 7687 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 The HRRR performed REALLY well today IMO. Several runs in a row had a big cell type signature going right through Central Maryland. More like a line segment - but certainly a big punch for a non SPC risk day. This either means we will now pay for this with several misses in the next few days...or we are going on a hot streak for severe. Won't know until it's done 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 Wouldn’t be shocked if the notch north of Greenbelt gets a TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 STW with TOR poss tag for C MD BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 441 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Baltimore City in northern Maryland... Northwestern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Eastern Howard County in central Maryland... Southwestern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 441 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Ellicott City to near Elkridge to Laurel, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Baltimore, Columbia, Severn, Pikesville, Elkridge, Riviera Beach, Baltimore-Washington Airport, Historic Ellicott City, Fort Smallwood State Park, Glen Burnie, Ellicott City, Dundalk, Towson, Catonsville, Woodlawn, Milford Mill, Lochearn, Pasadena, Arbutus and Ferndale. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3927 7651 3920 7649 3920 7650 3919 7650 3916 7648 3910 7684 3917 7688 3926 7687 3938 7673 3938 7659 TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 251DEG 14KT 3928 7684 3920 7680 3909 7683 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 Was mentioned in the obs thread but yes - not even a marginal risk, no mesoscale discussion - what an overperformer! Not seeing any LSRs yet - but assuming some lagged ones might pop up. I'd say this is a solid storm day given the silence from the SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Was mentioned in the obs thread but yes - not even a marginal risk, no mesoscale discussion - what an overperformer! Not seeing any LSRs yet - but assuming some lagged ones might pop up. I'd say this is a solid storm day given the silence from the SPC. The under the radar days outperform the big risk days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 Still a ton of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 From Jessup looking back into the Columbia cell during the tor warning. Was def a lot of low flying scud that’s for sure. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 PWS lightning count is 562 for the day so far! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 00z NAM NEST looks good for tomorrow afternoon into the evening from around 20z on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 Both Sat/Sun seem to favor south of the Potomac. But some cells do make it ahead of the main line on that NAM nest run. These things are super tricky to forecast...H5 would seem to argue the bend further south of us is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 Just now, Kmlwx said: Both Sat/Sun seem to favor south of the Potomac. But some cells do make it ahead of the main line on that NAM nest run. These things are super tricky to forecast...H5 would seem to argue the bend further south of us is real. Looks like a supercell into a bow echo for DC metro Sun afternoon? Hours 42-45 on sim radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 That was wild in Kensington today. Appears there was rotation. Several TV stations have shown 2.3” and I dealt with a lot of that over 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 Just now, yoda said: Looks like a supercell into a bow echo for DC metro Sun afternoon? Hours 42-45 on sim radar After today I'm almost inclined to use the HRRR as my "first guess" for both days - it really did pretty well on this morning's runs for this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: Looks like a supercell into a bow echo for DC metro Sun afternoon? Hours 42-45 on sim radar The 18z NAM kept me largely dry except for a few showers...and of course I bought tickets for the Baysox game tomorrow evening...fitting that the NAM seems to want to spoil that. The 12km NAM even looks solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 I said earlier...result of today will either be that we pay with painful misses for a while...or we are on a temporary heater. Given the recent boring weather, and a hunch feeling...I do wonder if we string together a solid streak of storm days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 Just now, Kmlwx said: I said earlier...result of today will either be that we pay with painful misses for a while...or we are on a temporary heater. Given the recent boring weather, and a hunch feeling...I do wonder if we string together a solid streak of storm days. Should be an intriguing Day 1 and Day 2 SPC OTLK... maybe even Day 3 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 Its the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 The 48hr HRRR! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 6 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty clear rotation - not seeing anything obvious on CC as it stands 6 hours ago, Amped said: The rotation sig went right over me, there wasn't much wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 ^^ Wow...obviously two isn't enough of a sample size - but that's suggestive that there *could* be some sort of terrain or microscale influence there to get spin going. At least while I was watching/tracking during the storms earlier - that rotation formed pretty quick - granted I wasn't really looking at elevated tilts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 Just a cursory glance at the terrain map and map in general for that area - a few things grab my attention - 1) Much less developed/urban sprawl areas versus other suburban areas closer in. 2) Triadelphia Reservoir/Patuxent River in that area 3) Sort of evenly split distance between the city center of Baltimore/DC (think heat islands). Have to wonder if the UHI plays a role...totally speculative - but if you have one area warmer than others one would assume there could be some microclimate stuff going on like eddies of warmer areas and such. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 7-7/8 looks interesting with a trough cutting into/through the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 Day 2 0/15/15 SLGT risk for all of LWX CWA... but discussion is kinda surprisingly meh Day 1 is MRGL for all (0/5/5)... SLGT risk for C and SW portions of LWX CWA for wind (15) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 The guidance is all over the place for both today and tomorrow. Pretty much every solution portrayed depending on which model you look at. Could be anything from getting blanked (for the most part) both days, to flush hits both days (maybe even multiple times). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 noticed that the SLGT risk area for today was nudged north and east into the immediate DC metro areas on the 9AM morning outlook. Discussion still seemed kind of muted though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 HRRR seems to think the storms will make it roughly to the Chesapeake before petering out. FV3 (12z run) really doesn't have much for most of us. It's still anyone's guess...but I think the SPC expansion of the slight risk into the area is probably wise. It's pretty cloudy here in Central Maryland - but certainly moist...73+ degrees for the dewpoint IMBY right now. I'm guessing we will overperform simply because I have baseball tickets for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now