FamouslyHot Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 ^ Someone suggested a landspout, which seems to fit better with what I see here than a standard Tornado. There does seem to be notable rotation on the ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 22 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hope @North Balti Zen got rain. No idea - on day six of a trial in Bel Air - we got some here today. Jury been out four hours now - will be happy to figure out how wet things have been starting tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Round 3 incoming. It had cooled off to the 60s around 6pm, now humid again with distant thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Guess we'll be on MCS watch late Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2023 Author Share Posted June 28, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: Guess we'll be on MCS watch late Friday? The H5 indicates it would go south and west of us. There will seemingly be chance for storms (maybe severe) in the next week or so (not each day but mixed in). GFS seems to have a decent cluster come through Sunday PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Just now, Kmlwx said: The H5 indicates it would go south and west of us. There will seemingly be chance for storms (maybe severe) in the next week or so (not each day but mixed in). GFS seems to have a decent cluster come through Sunday PM. Most likely... I just saw the MRGL risk on day 3 into our region. Would like a decent MCS to come rolling through the region... we haven't had one of those in awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Happy derecho anniversary! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2023 Author Share Posted June 28, 2023 I want NW flow and EML. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Happy derecho anniversary! Tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 On 6/27/2023 at 5:28 PM, Eskimo Joe said: ^no way. Not even close. Def a gustnado along the gust front from a nearby storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2023 Author Share Posted June 29, 2023 Interesting mention for severe potential in the morning AFD from LWX. Quote As this trough tracks to our northwest, south to southwesterly return flow will develop in response, drawing very warm and humid air into the region. Highs on both Sunday and Monday are expected to reach into the upper 80s and low 90s, with dewpoints climbing into the lower to middle 70s. Winds in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere will also be on the increase as the trough approaches the area. Our positioning downstream of the approaching trough will also place us in a a favorable location for weak synoptic scale forcing for ascent. As a result, thunderstorms are expected to form across the area on both Sunday and Monday afternoon. With winds on the increase aloft, and increasing low- level moisture being drawn northward into the region, it appears as though this system may create a favorable overlap of moderate to high instability and appreciable wind shear, making strong to severe thunderstorms possible. Most model guidance shows around 30-40 knots of 0-6 km shear both days, which would be enough to get organized storms on its own. What`s particularly eye-catching though is that most of the shear occurs in the 0-3 km layer, with models showing 30- 40 knots of flow at 700 hPa, which is highly atypical for early July (above the 90th percentile, and nearing daily maxes for the IAD sounding site according to the SPC sounding climatology site). Severe thunderstorm potential will be dependent on a number of factors, including convection from preceding days, as well as how the large scale pattern evolves. Given that it`s 4-5 days out, a lot can change, but we`ll continue to monitor the potential for strong storms Sunday and Monday over the upcoming days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 Can someone explain to me or point me in the direction of where I can read up and learn about what @Kmlwx bolded above in this morning's AFD from LWX? I understand the 0-6km as deep layer shear... so would 0-3km be low level shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 5 hours ago, yoda said: Can someone explain to me or point me in the direction of where I can read up and learn about what @Kmlwx bolded above in this morning's AFD from LWX? I understand the 0-6km as deep layer shear... so would 0-3km be low level shear? Are they describing helicity without using the word? 0-3km does seem to be described as low level shear in my reading about helicity. edit: please correct me if I’m wrong though! I want to learn too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2023 Author Share Posted June 29, 2023 June 29, 2012 is probably not going to see a parallel here for YEARS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 5 hours ago, Kmlwx said: June 29, 2012 is probably not going to see a parallel here for YEARS. Indianapolis area is reliving it now! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 INDIANAPOLIS TSTM 68 63 84 W26G70 30.11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2023 Author Share Posted June 29, 2023 18z 12km NAM has some decent parameters flowing in on Sunday evening. But...it's also the NAM at range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 33 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 18z 12km NAM has some decent parameters flowing in on Sunday evening. But...it's also the NAM at range. Pretty impressive at range and especially overnight too Hr 81 just south of DC is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 29, 2023 Author Share Posted June 29, 2023 14 minutes ago, yoda said: Pretty impressive at range and especially overnight too Hr 81 just south of DC is lol GFS has much less instability for the same time period. We'll see how the modeling coverages Saturday into Sunday. If nothing else it's more chances at thunder and lightning to at least spice up the boring weather! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 This mornings LWX discussion snippet for Sunday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 12 hours ago, Kmlwx said: 18z 12km NAM has some decent parameters flowing in on Sunday evening. But...it's also the NAM at range. 11 hours ago, yoda said: Pretty impressive at range and especially overnight too Hr 81 just south of DC is lol I see we have a Day 3 SLGT for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 1 hour ago, George BM said: I see we have a Day 3 SLGT for the region. That's probably the kiss of death for the threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 12z NAM still has some pretty impressive soundings for Sunday into Monday... and has an MCS rolling through Saturday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 KLWX is back online for those that had not noticed. Right on schedule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z NAM still has some pretty impressive soundings for Sunday into Monday... and has an MCS rolling through Saturday evening That MCS on the 12km NAM for Saturday favors Virginia heavily. Also, the timing for the Sunday PM stuff seems to be overnight on that run - not ideal for daytime heating but we'll see how it trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That MCS on the 12km NAM for Saturday favors Virginia heavily. Also, the timing for the Sunday PM stuff seems to be overnight on that run - not ideal for daytime heating but we'll see how it trends. True, but still has really nice shear and CAPE values Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, yoda said: True, but still has really nice shear and CAPE values And of course there's always exceptions to the nighttime rule. We've had plenty of prolific lightning producers overnight that aren't severe - but could qualify if lightning was a determining factor. I guess it will depend on whether the instability becomes elevated in the overnight period. At least we have some days to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 Afternoon AFD from LWX seems to suggest we have 3 days of chances, Sat-Mon is complicates the forecast and lowers uncertainty wrt how much recovery there could be before the aforementioned wave moves through. Overall chances for showers and thunderstorms appear to be higher west of the Blue Ridge. The environment looks seasonably moist with MLCAPE values near ~1500 J/kg and 20-25 kts of shear. Cannot rule out some strong to severe storms. There is varying flow with height, so storms may not initially move a lot resulting in a low end flood/flash flood threat. Will also have to monitor upstream convective activity for potential local impacts as some guidance has an MCS in the Ohio Valley Saturday night or early Sunday morning. This in turn complicates Sunday`s forecast. Come Sunday, a potent trough will move through the Ohio Valley with flow increasing ahead of this feature along with ample moisture return. There is a notable overlap in CAPE and shear Sunday, which could result in severe thunderstorms areawide. Clear skies Sunday morning will result in a volatile environment. Also possible convective debris Sunday morning limits the convective potential locally. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sunday night, all attention will turn to a very potent shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. A strong MCS associated with this system will make its way eastward across the Ohio Valley into Sunday evening, before approaching the Allegheny Front Sunday night. The biggest uncertainty lies with what it does after that. Decaying MCS`s are one of the most difficult weather phenomena to predict, and this is no exception. Guidance is still all over the place with available instability east of the mountains overnight Sunday into Monday. The most likely scenario is that the MCS decays as it crosses the mountains, and areas see some residual showers and clouds into Monday morning. However, should the higher end of guidance hold true, we could see re-formation east of the Shenandoah Valley somewhere. All in all, this is a very complex forecast, and the Storm Prediction has our area highlighted with a Slight Risk as a result, so it is something that is being closely monitored. Beyond that, the primary upper trough should move through on Monday, bringing another chance for afternoon showers and storms. The level of severity is going to depend greatly on the events that occur Sunday evening, and what amount of cloud debris is left over our area. Best chance would be during the late afternoon/evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 30, 2023 Author Share Posted June 30, 2023 Likely result is we fail on all three lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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