MN Transplant Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: Will this big cirrus shield (that one of the first cells formed) inhibit convection in northern Virginia? Possibly, but it is unlikely to be significant in this case. Research has found that large, slow-moving MCSs have more impact. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258795094_A_Numerical_Simulation_Study_of_the_Effects_of_Anvil_Shading_on_Quasi-Linear_Convective_Systems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Anyone else having issues with RadarScope updating? Seems specific to the Dover doplar. Not that it shows anything yet, but TIAD is loading and updating ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Anyone else having issues with RadarScope updating? Was coming to ask the same thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said: Seems specific to the Dover doplar. Not that it shows anything yet, but TIAD is loading and updating ok State college isn’t updating either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, mappy said: State college isn’t updating either TIAD is updating fine for me in Radarscope on Mac 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 Too early to tell how it will play out - but @Eskimo Joe's call of below I-66 event is looking money if those radar trends continue (looking at TIAD and seeing most stuff focused S of 66. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Terminal radars are updating, but the major ones are not from what I can see. 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: TIAD is updating fine for me in Radarscope on Mac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FamouslyHot Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 https://twitter.com/RadarScope/status/1673427609386926080?s=20 Hopefully there's a fix soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Too early to tell how it will play out - but @Eskimo Joe's call of below I-66 event is looking money if those radar trends continue (looking at TIAD and seeing most stuff focused S of 66. ) I really do hate it when I'm right. The mid level cloud deck screwed us today. If we had stayed clear, I would've been eating crow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I really do hate it when I'm right. The mid level cloud deck screwed us today. If we had stayed clear, I would've been eating crow. Honest question: instability is only very slightly better south of here. We're talking like 3000 surface-based CAPE vs. 2500 or so. That discrepancy shouldn't really make a difference. Both mid and low level lapse rates look very similar on the mesoanalysis as well. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Honest question: instability is only very slightly better south of here. We're talking like 3000 surface-based CAPE vs. 2500 or so. That discrepancy shouldn't really make a difference. Both mid and low level lapse rates look very similar on the mesoanalysis as well.Meteorology and modeling have made a lot of progress over the years but it’s yet to find a way to factor in the We Suck Index 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 looking like this really gets going 95 eastward. Midday clouds robbed us again. Radar is rather pathetic at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 I like the way water vapor looks right now. Can clearly see things starting to bubble up to the west. There is a little bit of a breeze out there and, for some reason (non-scientific), I never like that as a precursor to storms (it's not as stagnant as I'd like up this way, but still pretty humid out). We shall wait and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Suns out and it’s humid. Guess I’m playing softball after all lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 24 minutes ago, high risk said: Honest question: instability is only very slightly better south of here. We're talking like 3000 surface-based CAPE vs. 2500 or so. That discrepancy shouldn't really make a difference. Both mid and low level lapse rates look very similar on the mesoanalysis as well. Downsloping and lack of strong midday sun killed us. We need an EML to overcome the terrain issues here. That was reinforced with the 2021 Derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Downsloping and lack of strong midday sun killed us. We need an EML to overcome the terrain issues here. That was reinforced with the 2021 Derecho. Current radar make it seem like it’s actually an I-64 and South event, not even I-66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Bust. Rare events are rare for a reason. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Mixing out 86/65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 I'd argue the lack of upper air divergence is one of the main culprits today. That could've helped initiate many more cells in this thermodynamic environment. Looking at the 300mb analysis on SPC Mesoanalysis...and the locations of those magenta regions are telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Seeing some towerheads building to my NE now. Gray high clouds to my W makes it look like something is brewing, but hard to tell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Here is your storm of the day! Wow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Wow that looks like storm chaser video from a hurricane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 Yeah - radar looks awful for many of us. That Ellicott City cell is okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 NBC4 talking about this maybe being a bust for DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Yeah - radar looks awful for many of us. That Ellicott City cell is okay Ellicott City will probably get 7" in 2 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Looks like we’re gonna get gapped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: Looks like we’re gonna get gapped Miller B'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Here is your storm of the day! Wow. 9 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Wow that looks like storm chaser video from a hurricane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 I’d feel pretty good i95 east. Little more questionable further west, but the storms are clearly just getting going, so I’m keeping the hope alive. Just had one pop up cell nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Yeah - radar looks awful for many of us. That Ellicott City cell is okay It’s going to be close here. So far just some distant thunder and spittles of rain. eta just got warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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