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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)


Kmlwx
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12 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said:

Will this big cirrus shield (that one of the first cells formed) inhibit convection in northern Virginia?

Possibly, but it is unlikely to be significant in this case.  Research has found that large, slow-moving MCSs have more impact.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258795094_A_Numerical_Simulation_Study_of_the_Effects_of_Anvil_Shading_on_Quasi-Linear_Convective_Systems

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6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Too early to tell how it will play out - but @Eskimo Joe's call of below I-66 event is looking money if those radar trends continue (looking at TIAD and seeing most stuff focused S of 66. )

I really do hate it when I'm right. The mid level cloud deck screwed us today. If we had stayed clear, I would've been eating crow.

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I really do hate it when I'm right. The mid level cloud deck screwed us today. If we had stayed clear, I would've been eating crow.

    Honest question:   instability is only very slightly better south of here.   We're talking like 3000 surface-based CAPE vs. 2500 or so.    That discrepancy shouldn't really make a difference.     Both mid and low level lapse rates look very similar on the mesoanalysis as well.

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    Honest question:   instability is only very slightly better south of here.   We're talking like 3000 surface-based CAPE vs. 2500 or so.    That discrepancy shouldn't really make a difference.     Both mid and low level lapse rates look very similar on the mesoanalysis as well.

Meteorology and modeling have made a lot of progress over the years but it’s yet to find a way to factor in the We Suck Index
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I like the way water vapor looks right now.  Can clearly see things starting to bubble up to the west.  There is a little bit of a breeze out there and, for some reason (non-scientific), I never like that as a precursor to storms (it's not as stagnant as I'd like up this way, but still pretty humid out).  We shall wait and see what happens.

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24 minutes ago, high risk said:

    Honest question:   instability is only very slightly better south of here.   We're talking like 3000 surface-based CAPE vs. 2500 or so.    That discrepancy shouldn't really make a difference.     Both mid and low level lapse rates look very similar on the mesoanalysis as well.

Downsloping and lack of strong midday sun killed us. We need an EML to overcome the terrain issues here. That was reinforced with the 2021 Derecho.

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I'd argue the lack of upper air divergence is one of the main culprits today. That could've helped initiate many more cells in this thermodynamic environment. Looking at the 300mb analysis on SPC Mesoanalysis...and the locations of those magenta regions are telling.

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