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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)


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Updated LWX AFD

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS 
EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH 
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN 
FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT 
LAKES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO START OFF
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POINTS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER EAST 
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EARLY MODEL RUNS 
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE SUGGESTED THAT SEVERE 
POTENTIAL HAD DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SOME
GUIDANCE MAY HAVE BEEN UNDERMINING THE DEWPOINTS FOR THE EARLY 
AFTERNOON, AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE 60S/70S ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE AREA. AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FURTHER EAST, IT WILL
APPROACH MORE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY AND 
SHEAR COMPARED TO FURTHER WEST. EARLY CLEARING ACROSS THE 
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS CONTINUED WITH A STABLE CLOUD LAYER
DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NOVA AND NE MD DIMINISHING NOW.

18Z KIAD RAOB SUGGESTS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE 
HAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ORIGINAL THINKING OF A MORE STABLE LAYER 
MAY BE OVERCOME BY THE INCREASED INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE WITH 
GOOD MIXING DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 
TORNADO AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING FROM TRAINING STORMS
IF POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE 
MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 PM. THE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHES 
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRYING CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG 
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO 60S.

 

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