2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

There is a realistic fail mode here that has been hinted at by some models where there are good storms up in PA where the dynamics are solid and down in southern VA and NC where the instability is better.  

I'll put my money on that.

[aldie 22]

For my area today feels like one of those probably not kind of days. My money is on Tuesday actually for any significant rain....severe doesn't seem likely IMBY

[weatherCCB]

Sun is out here 

74/71

[Terpeast]

Getting sunnier, dews in upper 60s. If we get gapped today, it won’t be because of early cloudiness

[midatlanticweather]

High dews and heating will be the fuel we need. Seems we have a decent shot at that. I am far enough west that they may just be getting going here, but just east seems like it would be prime. Agree with all the split talks though, this is always a possibility for broken up lines of storms that explode east of I95. We shall see. Sun is trying hard here in Purcellville. 

[mattskiva]

High dews and heating will be the fuel we need. Seems we have a decent shot at that. I am far enough west that they may just be getting going here, but just east seems like it would be prime. Agree with all the split talks though, this is always a possibility for broken up lines of storms that explode east of I95. We shall see. Sun is trying hard here in Purcellville. 

Full sun in Catharpin area with DP of 71. Blue sky


.

[vastateofmind]

My expectations may be tempered by logical discussion happening here...or perhaps I'm more jaded from the experience of forecasted wx vs. what-actually-transpires wx in this region. But I'm finding the amount of hype and hyperbole that a few of the local radio/TV station mets are repeatedly pushing this A.M. regarding this afternoon's severe potential almost insufferable. I mean, they're making it sound worse than the derecho from the early 2010s...get all of your errands done before noon, rush hour will be a nightmare, tornado chances are strong, etc. Ugh.

77/70 with full sun and clear skies now at Fort Belvoir.

[RickinBaltimore]

9 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

My expectations may be tempered by logical discussion happening here...or perhaps I'm more jaded from the experience of forecasted wx vs. what-actually-transpires wx in this region. But I'm finding the amount of hype and hyperbole that a few of the local radio/TV station mets are repeatedly pushing this A.M. regarding this afternoon's severe potential almost insufferable. I mean, they're making it sound worse than the derecho from the early 2010s...get all of your errands done before noon, rush hour will be a nightmare, tornado chances are strong, etc. Ugh.

77/70 with full sun and clear skies now at Fort Belvoir.

It's summer. We get storms, sometimes heavy. People forget that. Hell I can do the weather in summer here: "Hazy, hot and humid with a chance of afternoon or evening thunderstorms, some may be severe."

Sorry to be so snarky but I agree with you, the hyperbole is over the top. 

[vastateofmind]

Just now, RickinBaltimore said:

It's summer. We get storms, sometimes heavy. People forget that. Hell I can do the weather in summer here: "Hazy, hot and humid with a chance of afternoon or evening thunderstorms, some may be severe."

Sorry to be so snarky but I agree with you, the hyperbole is over the top. 

Not snarky at all, spot-on! And yeah, folks do forget that we CAN get rough wx this time of year. I just heard my 4th or 5th round of hype on the radio and just turned it off...it's obviously a "me" problem.   

On a related note, I always like to check the Mt. Holly NWS team's discussion on days like this, as they typically lay out possible scenarios...and they don't disappoint this morning, taking a look at possibilities both north and south of their locale.

[Kmlwx]

There were some peaks of sun on my drive into the office (Colesville to Rockville/Potomac). 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Sunny and humid in Takoma park. 

[mappy]

14 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

My expectations may be tempered by logical discussion happening here...or perhaps I'm more jaded from the experience of forecasted wx vs. what-actually-transpires wx in this region. But I'm finding the amount of hype and hyperbole that a few of the local radio/TV station mets are repeatedly pushing this A.M. regarding this afternoon's severe potential almost insufferable. I mean, they're making it sound worse than the derecho from the early 2010s...get all of your errands done before noon, rush hour will be a nightmare, tornado chances are strong, etc. Ugh.

77/70 with full sun and clear skies now at Fort Belvoir.

So on the flip side, if they didn't make those comments and it did end up being a really bad severe day, media would never hear the end of the complaints.

[midatlanticweather]

Sunshine and 75/71 here in Purcellville. DP went up from 68 at 6am this morning. Things seem to be setup for now.. we will see if these humid conditions remain! 

 

 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

  The good news is that it already looks better for northern areas just an hour later.    Still plenty of fail modes today, but it's hard to take any HRRR solutions seriously, as I can't imagine how our dew points crash into the upper 50s / lower 60s on southerly winds.

[H2O]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

  The good news is that it already looks better for northern areas just an hour later.    Still plenty of fail modes today, but it's hard to take any HRRR solutions seriously, as I can't imagine how our dew points crash into the upper 50s / lower 60s on southerly winds.

Weather words that are never said:

 

DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS

[high risk]

18 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

It's summer. We get storms, sometimes heavy. People forget that. Hell I can do the weather in summer here: "Hazy, hot and humid with a chance of afternoon or evening thunderstorms, some may be severe."

Sorry to be so snarky but I agree with you, the hyperbole is over the top. 

            But this isn't a standard summer day where thunderstorms will form, and couple of them might put out a couple of localized downbursts as they collapse.     We have an unseasonably strong upper trough arriving from the west and potentially better mid-level lapse rates than we commonly see here.      There are still fail scenarios, but there is absolutely higher-end potential today, even if we don't attain it.   

            That said, the communication from the media has been all about the high-end scenario and not the fail scenario, and it's going to be unfortunate if a lower-end scenario verifies.  I have no idea how they can appropriately cover the two scenarios without confusing a lot of people, especially when they only have time for a quick soundbite.

[wawarriors4]

81/71 with full Sunshine around Fredericksburg. The optimist in me is hopeful for interesting weather, the jaded side of me is fully expecting a split around FXBG and storms blow up South and East of here. The full sun and dew point has me leaning optimistic.........for now. 

[Terpeast]

79/72 ashburn. Full sun. Dews have gone up. Setup seems good so far

[09-10 analogy]

Trees do fall around here during severe weather and people have been killed. I'd WAG more people have died from straight line winds around here than from tornadoes, for instance.  So it's not totally unwarranted to warn people of powerful thunderstorms ... probably has as much to do with how many trees we have (well, in NW DC at least, I'm as parochial as ever) than with the strength of the winds. 

Is today hype-worthy? Probably not, but we'll see. That question can only be answered in retrospect anyway.  

Anyway, plenty of sun right now. What I don't want is hail. Last time I went to the local auto body shop, I asked an innocuous question, and the p***k running the joint snapped at me for no discernable reason. 

[Kmlwx]

We can still fail (I know I'm echoing what we all know already) - but the @Eskimo Joe failure mode of just no sun is not going to verify. If we fail it will be from something else. 

[mappy]

75/72 sun out

[Eskimo Joe]

20 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

We can still fail (I know I'm echoing what we all know already) - but the @Eskimo Joe failure mode of just no sun is not going to verify. If we fail it will be from something else. 

I'm pleasantly surprised that we've managed to clear out a bit, but there's more debris cirrus over the mountains.

[Stormfly]

53 minutes ago, mappy said:

So on the flip side, if they didn't make those comments and it did end up being a really bad severe day, media would never hear the end of the complaints.

Be prepared, never scared.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[SLPressure]

78/69 mostly sunny in Oxon Hill.

[George BM]

IAD at 82/69 currently.

[batmanbrad]

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm pleasantly surprised that we've managed to clear out a bit, but there's more debris cirrus over the mountains.

Per vis loop, the clouds over the mountains to our west appear to be thinning out some, and further west, most of West Virginia looks quite cleared out.

[Kmlwx]

HRRR is still pretty meh

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

HRRR is still pretty meh

The models are showing a typical hit/miss day of summer storms lol.

[87storms]

We deserve a severe thunderstorm watch after what's been one of the most boring stretches of weather in mid-Atlantic history.