yoda Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Pretty good day for the region and into AKQ CWA for severe weather reports, SLGT definitely verified 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 36 minutes ago, yoda said: Pretty good day for the region and into AKQ CWA for severe weather reports, SLGT definitely verified Indeed. Was fortunate to have a tour of SPC back in April and spoke with their director. SPC has made tremendous advances in outlook and watch box verification. Thoroughly enjoyed the visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 38 minutes ago, yoda said: Pretty good day for the region and into AKQ CWA for severe weather reports, SLGT definitely verified Indeed - SPC placed that slight risk in the right spots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 Hopefully, we can get some sun to fuel the next round tomorrow, but it looks like Thursday has more in the way of t-storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 54 minutes ago, 87storms said: Hopefully, we can get some sun to fuel the next round tomorrow, but it looks like Thursday has more in the way of t-storm potential. Tomorrow is a low overcast, seasonably chilly day with steady rain arriving - there isn't even a hint of instabilty. Agree that convective chances increase Thursday and ramp up further Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 Tomorrow is a low overcast, seasonably chilly day with steady rain arriving - there isn't even a hint of instabilty. Agree that convective chances increase Thursday and ramp up further Friday.Yea looks like one of those raw, straight off the Atlantic precip events incoming for tomorrow. Hopefully things get more spicy later in the week. I’m just glad the weather is getting interesting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 3 hours ago, 87storms said: Hopefully, we can get some sun to fuel the next round tomorrow, but it looks like Thursday has more in the way of t-storm potential. Not too impressed with Thursday. After some AM rain, looks potentially mostly cloudy with hit or miss rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Finally some talk of severe starting this weekend into next week from both SPC and LWX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2023 Author Share Posted June 21, 2023 40 minutes ago, yoda said: Finally some talk of severe starting this weekend into next week from both SPC and LWX Yep! I see we got a bit of a mention in the D4-8 outlook. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Yeah that Monday/Tuesday timeframe has one of my eyes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 21, 2023 Author Share Posted June 21, 2023 CIPS had a decent severe potential signal on the 168hr frame on the 0z suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Monday getting my attention. Remnant EML + DPVA from big, broad trough setups are pretty reliable producers. Still a bit far out and daytime mixing and convective debris are always concerns, though favorably cool mid-level temps make it less sensitive to boundary layer moisture issues. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2023 Author Share Posted June 22, 2023 49 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Monday getting my attention. Remnant EML + DPVA from big, broad trough setups are pretty reliable producers. Still a bit far out and daytime mixing and convective debris are always concerns, though favorably cool mid-level temps make it less sensitive to boundary layer moisture issues. You're in here talking dirty to the severe weenies... Paging @Eskimo Joe - get us an EML and we can be sub-par on some other factors and still perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: You're in here talking dirty to the severe weenies... Paging @Eskimo Joe - get us an EML and we can be sub-par on some other factors and still perform. EML and dews over 70 degrees with NW flow. Those are our winnable setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Morning's AFD from LWX regarding Monday sounds tasty By Monday, a trough digging across the Great Lakes and Midwest will pivot toward the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Height falls and DCVA ahead of the trough, modest diffluence aloft in the right entrance region of a neutral to slight negative tilt upper trough, and low- level convergence along and ahead of an associated surface cold front will likely trigger showers and at least scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The 00Z GFS/CMC/UKMET all show mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km (though note the 00z ECMWF is weaker around 6.5.7 C/km) attendant to a remnant EML plume. These values are noteworthy for this part of the country in late June, perhaps an indication of heightened potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Additionally, 850-500 hPa winds of 30-40 kts with some low-level veering may lend to both low and deep layer shear, which would aid thunderstorm organization. Timing and strength differences remain, especially beyond Monday night regarding just how quickly the upper trough and surface cold front exit the region. Kept PoPs in the forecast during the favorable afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday with the front nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2023 Author Share Posted June 22, 2023 The CIPS analogs from the 0z suite had some decent ones mixed in. I saw June 4, 2008 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Let's see how this looks on Sunday afternoon, but there's definitely some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2023 Author Share Posted June 22, 2023 12z CIPS guidance has decent severe signal at 84, 108 AND 132. Best threat window we've had all year. June 4, 2008 is now the top analog on the 84hr frame! (for our domain/sector) June 1, 2012 is showing up in the analog mix at the 108hr mark as well - though not one of the higher analogs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2023 Author Share Posted June 22, 2023 Impressive sim reflectivity signal on the 18z GFS for Monday afternoon/evening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 ML Lapse Rates are nice too... some 8C/KM showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 I had doubts about the timing of the system, but there seems to be some increasing agreement on better timing. The wind fields overall still don't look great, but it's impossible to ignore several impressive ingredients that may be in place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 30 minutes ago, high risk said: I had doubts about the timing of the system, but there seems to be some increasing agreement on better timing. The wind fields overall still don't look great, but it's impossible to ignore several impressive ingredients that may be in place. 30-40kts of deep layer shear should be enough, though it would be nicer to see 40-50kts IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 1 hour ago, yoda said: 30-40kts of deep layer shear should be enough, though it would be nicer to see 40-50kts IMO That's what I'm getting at. The shear appears so far that it will be sufficient for severe, but with some pretty impressive analogs being tossed around, I would expect to see some much higher values. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2023 Author Share Posted June 23, 2023 Latest GFS runs have backed off a bit on the quality of the remnant EML. That said - we do have a Day 4 15% outlook area from SPC for portion of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Hard to get robust lapse rates and shear, and timing, all aligned together around here. But we don't get day 4 outlooked by SPC too often around here, either (not that northern parts of the sub are). EDIT: Not that it means anything, but this has been an aberrant June, what with all the tornadoes in the South (when their peak is usually well over by now) and then the tornadoes in Texas the other day. (I read somewhere that Texas hadn't had an (E)F4 after June 10th until this year, with Matador almost certainly being (E)F4 at least.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Mark was liking Monday on twitter last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2023 Author Share Posted June 23, 2023 12z GFS suggests best mid-level lapse rates go mostly south of DC. But sim reflectivity panels still look excellent - damn impressive for a model that isn't the short range/higher res stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Pretty decent soundings from 12z NAM at range - 78 hours till the end at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2023 Author Share Posted June 23, 2023 I'm going to sound like a broken record - but we have tossed around this discussion in the past - anecdotally I remember a lot more "solid squall lines" in the 90s and earlier 2000s and severe events since then have seemed to be more shorter line segments or more spotty. Interesting that some of the analogs have had a lot of 1990s events in the mix - and that looks like a pretty long/solid line portrayed on the GFS. Again - just me with my pointless musings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 6 hours ago, Kmlwx said: 12z GFS suggests best mid-level lapse rates go mostly south of DC. But sim reflectivity panels still look excellent - damn impressive for a model that isn't the short range/higher res stuff Still pretty impressive on the 18z... few hours later though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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